# Optimal strategy for playing "Deal or No Deal" **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [February 28, 2006, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481 "2006-02-28T17:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/21 "2006-02-28T21:51:04Z")
I made an Expected Value Calculator in Excel and played the game several more times, and noticed something interesting – the banker’s offer starts out as a complete insult (about 20% of the E.V.) and gets progressively better. By about the 5th offer it’s about 1% better than the E.V. ---
**Author:** ![Cluricaun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/bb73d2/32.png) [@Cluricaun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cluricaun)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/22 "2006-02-28T22:49:19Z")
I think you’re all missing the point. What you need to do is hit Howie Mandel directly in the crotch with a rock, and then abscond with one of the briefcase models. Who needs money after that? ---
**Author:** ![Aholibah](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Aholibah](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aholibah)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/23 "2006-02-28T22:59:30Z")
[QUOTE=aktep] I can’t get the flash game to work. I see dollar amounts and I can click on empty space. ☹ [/QUOTE] I had the same problem until I upgraded my Macromedia Flash player. Try that. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2006, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/24 "2006-02-28T23:08:21Z")
I just had a particularly bad run of luck; my 4th offer was $200. I took it. ---
**Author:** ![interface2x](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c0e974/32.png) [@interface2x](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/interface2x)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/25 "2006-03-01T01:39:09Z")
I just played once - my case had $500, but I took an offer of $128,000. ---
**Author:** ![Ogre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ecb155/32.png) [@Ogre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ogre)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/26 "2006-03-01T02:19:14Z")
> [@](#): > > What you need to do is hit Howie Mandel directly in the crotch with a rock… That’s Howie Freakin’ Mandel?! ---
**Author:** ![The\_Scrivener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@The\_Scrivener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Scrivener)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/27 "2006-03-01T02:41:50Z")
Who else thinks the church lady (Mrs. Jackson?) really, _really_ should’ve settled for the 80 grand when it was down to three cases, one of them being $300,000? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/28 "2006-03-01T02:41:51Z")
[QUOTE=jsc1953] I played one time and got burned: took a $290k offer and had $400k in my briefcase. [/QUOTE] You didn’t get burned, see. $290K is a great game, way above the average take. As long as you are playing the game, the amount in the briefcase is simultaneously all the possible amounts. It’s Schroedinger’s Certified Check. The luck in the game comes before then, when they open the cases on the stage - that’s what drives your offer up or down, and it’s the only thing that matters. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/29 "2006-03-01T02:51:34Z")
Played it twice. Second time, had $25 in the case, settled for $338,000 because the million was still in play. Everything else in play was $300,000 or less, so I couldn’t turn that one down. ---
**Author:** ![RachelChristine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/7ab992/32.png) [@RachelChristine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RachelChristine)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/30 "2006-03-01T04:35:49Z")
[QUOTE=Smeghead] The main thing that bothers me about this show, besides the generally melodramatic atmosphere, is the fact that the contestants act like they really need to think and agonize when picking cases to open. If it were me, I’d really annoy the producers: “I have to open six cases? OK, gimme 1-6.” [/QUOTE] That’s exactly how I play it online! I usually pick My Case by some method like my daughter’s birthday, then just click away in order. Sometimes I pick My Case to be the exact center, then I go in a pattern. But none of this randomly picking numbers as if it matters crap for me! ---
**Author:** ![Antinor01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecae2f/32.png) [@Antinor01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antinor01)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/31 "2006-03-01T04:49:57Z")
first time playing, did a deal for 143000, had 5 in my case. woohoo! ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/32 "2006-03-01T05:05:28Z")
If you do play this for real money, do you need to be able to handle the calculus in your head or would a couple rules of thumb win the day? Mostly being able to handle probabilities of the higher values against the amount offered? ---
**Author:** ![JThunder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e95f7d/32.png) [@JThunder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JThunder)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/33 "2006-03-01T05:28:36Z")
I played the game online, but was disqualified when I tried to ask one of the models out on a date. ---
**Author:** ![bitwise](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ea5d25/32.png) [@bitwise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bitwise)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/34 "2006-03-01T05:40:31Z")
I did not read the papers listed, but there is a discussion here. > **[Deal or No Deal](https://blog.computationalcomplexity.org/2005/12/deal-or-no-deal.html)** > > A new US game show started last week, Deal or No Deal hosted by Howie Mandel (the same Howie from this post ). A New York Times article de... ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/35 "2006-03-01T05:49:07Z")
The show is on Australian TV in the evening just before the news with lowered prizemoney - I think the top prize is $200,000. I watched it a few times when it was first aired just to see how it worked and concluded that no-one would ever win the top prize. A few months ago I saw an ad for the show which I thought showed a guy with a giant cheque for $200,000 but figured it was my mistake. A few days later I got home from work earlier than usual and turned on the TV and caught the last few minutes of the show. A young woman had 5 amounts left - 50c, $1, $10,000, $100,000 and $200,000. She was offered 60 odd grand. She eliminated the $1 and was offered about 80K. She eliminated the $10K and was offered about $110K. Her next guess eliminated the $100,000 and she was slightly disappointed however the offer went up slightly to $120K. As she ummed and arred about whether to accept the deal she said she was tempted to go on because she “felt lucky”. The host said, “We have only had one person win the lot and he did it by sticking to his guns until the end.” I can only assume that he was left with the two largest values but even then it’s a hell of a coin toss. Eventually she accepted the deal and it turned out that her case contained the 50c. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/36 "2006-03-01T07:17:57Z")
[QUOTE=Trunk] This is different than the Monty Hall problem. [/QUOTE] In what way? > [@asterion](#): > > If you do play this for real money, do you need to be able to handle the calculus in your head or would a couple rules of thumb win the day? Mostly being able to handle probabilities of the higher values against the amount offered? Rule of thumb would be: Assume most of the briefcases you would next reveal will be the highest values in play, then compare the midpoint of the remaining briefcases with the current banker’s offer. I say this because in the one game I played just now, the first one I revealed was the million, and the second one was 200k. The first banker’s offer was 10 grand; screw that! The second offer was 27k, but I had revealed almost all really small briefcases with that turn, so I held out for one more offer, which I took at 91k, besting my 10k briefcase by 81,000. Neat game. ---
**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 9:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/37 "2006-03-01T09:38:55Z")
[QUOTE=Ellis Dee] In what way?. [/QUOTE] In the Monty Hall problem, Monty knowingly shows you a dud door. Him showing you the dud door tells you nothing about your own door, because there has to be a dud door for him to show you no matter what your door is, because there are two duds. In this, you are opening doors randomly, so each briefcase you open tells you a little bit about your own briefcase, because before you open the $25 dollar case, yours could be the $25. but after you open the case, you know your own can’t be the $25 case. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/38 "2006-03-01T11:22:21Z")
My strategy would be to keep going as long as there was at least two six-figure cases still in play. Unless you’re quite unlucky, you’ll get to the single case rounds with at least two of these still in play. I love the little motion that Howie makes with his hands when he says “Open the case.” Though I do wish he would say “open the dress.” ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/39 "2006-03-01T15:09:52Z")
[QUOTE=Taber] In the Monty Hall problem, Monty knowingly shows you a dud door. Him showing you the dud door tells you nothing about your own door, because there has to be a dud door for him to show you no matter what your door is, because there are two duds. [/quote] It tells you a lot about your own door because you know that if you DIDN’T pick the “good” door, he shows you the dud door. The only time you shouldn’t switch is when you pick the correct door to being with, and that’s only 1/3 of the time. Go [HERE](http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html) for more. This has been beat into the ground like the plane on the treadmill here. > [@](#): > > In this, you are opening doors randomly, so each briefcase you open tells you a little bit about your own briefcase, because before you open the $25 dollar case, yours could be the $25. but after you open the case, you know your own can’t be the $25 case. Yeah. And, like **RickJay** said, YOUR briefcase doesn’t really mean squat. It’s really just one of the random unopened briefcases. The fact that you “have” a briefcase that you can open at any time simply adds some kind of “pre-determined” feeling to the game. It would look too much like rolling dice if they didn’t let the contestant pick one. It’s just a game of evaluating a person’s comfort with a “sure thing” (the bank’s offer) versus how much the person want’s to roll the dice. The personal briefcase is not essential to the play of the game – just to the drama of the TV show. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2006, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481/40 "2006-03-01T17:02:38Z")
[QUOTE=The Scrivener] Who else thinks the church lady (Mrs. Jackson?) really, _really_ should’ve settled for the 80 grand when it was down to three cases, one of them being $300,000? [/QUOTE] I think she should have settled for the eighty grand, but this is what makes the show interesting to me. Purely mathematically, she made the right decision (I think it is always the right decision mathematically to refuse the offer) since her expected value at the time was about $100,000. But I notice people don’t tend to think of the offer as being their money. Would that same person have been willing to pay $80,000 dollars before the show began to have a pick at one of three cases with values of $1, $5, and $300,000? Also, even if she had eliminated one of the low amounts, the offer would have only increased to (I’m guessing) 120,000 to 130,000 dollars. Should you risk the 80,000 for the extra 40 to 50 thousand? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/optimal-strategy-for-playing-deal-or-no-deal/346481.md?page=3)