# Osama Bin Laden: Dead or Alive? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 15, 2004, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965 "2004-08-15T17:49:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2004, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/21 "2004-08-15T20:34:15Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Florida is harder to call because it’s moved a good bit this year, I’ll reserve judgment on it until mid October. Florida is a tough call. I don’t think you can say either guy has it locked up now and I doubt you’ll be able to say that any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![Paladud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Paladud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paladud)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2004, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/22 "2004-08-15T21:09:29Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Well it’s not so much wishful. IIRC isn’t he about 70, lots of people live to their 80s these days but at 70+ a lot of things can just come down on you all of a sudden. > > And despite the image of ObL as this wealthy international criminal leader I bet he spends a lot of his time in fairly rough conditions with subpar doctors. Uhm, bin Laden is in his late forties. [Cite.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin_Laden) ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2004, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/23 "2004-08-15T21:38:18Z")
Damn, I thought he was 65 at the youngest. He doesn’t age well at all. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2004, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/24 "2004-08-15T21:45:47Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Damn, I thought he was 65 at the youngest. > > He doesn’t age well at all. Give him a break, he’s been under a lot of stress. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2004, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/25 "2004-08-15T21:57:21Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > You’re joking, right? California is solidly for Kerry, and Kerry is leading in the polls in Florida right now. That doesn’t mean a lot in the long run, but the state sure isn’t ‘in the bank’ for Bush. Tell ya the truth **Marley** with the way my summer’s been…I don’t know if I was joking or just expressing the fact that things aren’t exactly going the way I’d like 'em to. After the Terminator won California…and a few other surprises lately. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Hillary win by way of a write in campaign. Sorry if I rained on y’alls debate. I was serious about the fact that the Pakistan press reported last winter that OBL was being held though. True or not, I have no clue. But reported as fact it was. Why the yoda-speak? I don’t know either. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2004, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/26 "2004-08-15T23:24:13Z")
Arnold is a pretty centrist Republican, though. ---
**Author:** ![ZombiesAteMyBrain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b4bc9f/32.png) [@ZombiesAteMyBrain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZombiesAteMyBrain)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/27 "2004-08-16T00:21:12Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Arnold is a pretty centrist Republican, though. Pretty??? Arnold isn’t a _ **pretty** _ anything … didn’t someone once compare him to a condom stuffed full of walnuts? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/28 "2004-08-16T00:39:34Z")
😉 But he’s right. He’s a centrist Republican, and the circumstances he was elected under were pretty darn unique. I don’t know the poll numbers from CA, but I would be surprised if Kerry doesn’t have a double-digit lead. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/29 "2004-08-16T01:02:47Z")
> [@ZombiesAteMyBrain](#): > > Pretty??? Arnold isn’t a _ **pretty** _ anything … didn’t someone once compare him to a condom stuffed full of walnuts? That was Clive James. On Osama my pet theory is that in order to damage the US either he will kill himself or a subordinate has/will kill him. The options are: - the remainder of his life on the lam, with a probable propaganda coup for the US when he is caught: Or - enter legend: as America’s most wanted man, who they never can catch. Warrior for Islam concealed by God. Jolly Swagman\*. It’s not so outlandish as you may think. Consider the fanatacism at work there. Similarly, on the turning him in point, consider the prestige that may come with the claim; “I knew Osama, but would not turn him in to the US for their filty dollars.” \*Obscure local reference. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/30 "2004-08-16T02:26:00Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I don’t know the poll numbers from CA, but I would be surprised if Kerry doesn’t have a double-digit lead. According to [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com), the latest California poll, conducted August 11 by Strategic Vision, shows 50% support for Kerry, 40% for Bush, 4% for Nader. The latest Florida poll, conducted August 10 by Quinnipiac University, shows 47% support for Kerry, 41% for Bush, 4% for Nader. Based on the most recent available polls for each state, Kerry leads Bush by 327 electoral votes to 211. Would announcing Bin Laden’s capture swing that back to Dubya? Who can say? But I seriously doubt it. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/31 "2004-08-16T03:11:12Z")
I skimmed the posts, and I didn’t see this twist, so I will add it. Personally, if Osama is Captured ‘just’ before November, say mid october, then I will 100% vote for Kerry. I mean, we won’t let Osama go if Kerry wins. Kerry stated (paraphrased) we need to step down our attacks. “sensitive” I think was the word. … with Osama gone, I doubt any US president can ignore the remaining terror. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/32 "2004-08-16T03:46:50Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > According to [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com), the latest California poll, conducted August 11 by Strategic Vision, shows 50% support for Kerry, 40% for Bush, 4% for Nader. The latest Florida poll, conducted August 10 by Quinnipiac University, shows 47% support for Kerry, 41% for Bush, 4% for Nader. Based on the most recent available polls for each state, Kerry leads Bush by 327 electoral votes to 211. Are there any estimates out there that count Nader’s percentages only in the states in which he will be on the ballot? > [@Meeko](#): > > Kerry stated (paraphrased) we need to step down our attacks. “sensitive” I think was the word. That’s not even CLOSE to what he said. ---
**Author:** ![Earthling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/90db22/32.png) [@Earthling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earthling)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/33 "2004-08-16T04:02:29Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Would announcing Bin Laden’s capture swing that back to Dubya? We can probably use the capture of Saddam Hussein as a gauge. His job approval rating went up from 54 to 63 percent after Saddam’s capture ([CNN/USA Today/Gallup](http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/17/elec04.prez.poll/)). However, in just one month’s time, that rating had dropped 10% ([CBS News](http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/17/opinion/polls/main593849.shtml)) again. So timing is important. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/34 "2004-08-16T06:07:38Z")
That might be a decent gauge, but I don’t know if anything would give Bush an ‘overnight’ bump of 10% these days. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/35 "2004-08-16T06:51:22Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > According to [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com), the latest California poll, conducted August 11 by Strategic Vision, shows 50% support for Kerry, 40% for Bush, 4% for Nader. The latest Florida poll, conducted August 10 by Quinnipiac University, shows 47% support for Kerry, 41% for Bush, 4% for Nader. Based on the most recent available polls for each state, Kerry leads Bush by 327 electoral votes to 211. Would announcing Bin Laden’s capture swing that back to Dubya? Who can say? But I seriously doubt it. That electoral-vote page uses far too many flawed polling systems (like Zogby, I’m sorry for all the Zogby fans but what that guy does is cleverly guess and get it right sometimes when no one else does, he does not a pollster make.) And state-wide polls are nothing like national polls, they change rapidly and are often not conducted with a very wide sampling. I’ve seen many a gubenatorial race in my time seem to “swing rapidly” from week to week. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/36 "2004-08-16T13:18:06Z")
> [@Martin Hyde](#): > > I also don’t take Richard Clarke very seriously. The guy was a failure as a counterterrorism expert so any advice he has can go right into the trash as far as I’m concerned. But let me tell you about _my_ theories about al Qaeda because I know so much more than Mr. Clarke, **Hyde** seems to say. > [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Al-Qaeda has always been fairly decentralized, and has always been sort of an amalgamated group of independent groups, many of the people that went into the creation of Al-Qaeda had been operating independent cells for years. Oddly enough, according to the 9-11 report this incorrect. But I suppose this is an example of the general misanalysis you were talking about. Those people who put together the report seem to think that there were oaths of fealty to UbL that demarcated al Qaeda from other groups. I guess your mileage varies. > [@Martin Hyde](#): > > Well it’s not so much wishful. IIRC isn’t he [UbL] about 70, lots of people live to their 80s these days but at 70+ a lot of things can just come down on you all of a sudden. UbL was 23 in 1980 (47 in 2004). Maybe you should reconsider the general misanalysis in light of what the misanalyzers are using for facts. Be careful not to misunderestimate them. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/37 "2004-08-16T13:28:25Z")
Well since this thread has got so far from the OP that we’re discussing allocation of electoral votes in Cali, I’d just like to point out that the administration has done an amazing job of trashing Clarke. He went from being one of the most respected counter-terrorism specialists in the world to a disgruntled hack with an axe to grind. Funny that chose to put make him incident manager on 9-11 since he was so poorly though of. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/38 "2004-08-16T13:31:51Z")
Could Gen. Musharraf be using OBL as a a bargaining chip? It strikes me as very odd, that the Pakistani army has been “combing” the Afghan border area for 3 years now, and has only captured some little fish. I could see the advantage for Musharraf in holding out till the last minute…once OBL is in the bag, I can’t see any reason why we have to cozy up to Pakistan. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/39 "2004-08-16T14:05:33Z")
The central Pakistan government doesn’t have full control of the region, nor does he have full control of his security services. It’s not accurate to think of the Pakistani military combing the area, it is making targeted raids based on intel. Also, Pakistan would prefer that some kind of government like the Taliban be reestablished in Kabul. It has always been in Islamabad’s interest to fostre a stable, Islamic government on its northern border to alleviate pressure and allow Pakistan to defend its southern border with India. The Islamabad government is cooperating only to a point with the US and has to be very mindful of inflaming public opinion in the Pakistanin frontier zone where people are more likely to feel loyalty to bin Laden than any government in Islamabad. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2004, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965/40 "2004-08-16T14:20:04Z")
Pakistan is an odd ally in the WoT. General Hamid Gul warned UbL of the impending cruise missile strikes that were launched under Clinton’s watch. There’re wide ranging sympathies with both the Taliban and aQ within Pak’s military and inteligence services. Pak was the world’s most accomplished proliferator of illicit nuclear technologies in the history of the world. The country is run by a dictator who seized power in a coup. He has effectively suspended the constitution. In short, Pakistan is everything that the Bush Admin said Iraq was. Go figger. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/osama-bin-laden-dead-or-alive/259965.md?page=3)