Out of balance political power: Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema

Politics & Elections
61

Can you quote where I said anything about President Biden in what you are referring to? Thanks in advance.

We are talking about Senators, which are part of the legislative body, not the executive. Sorry if you are having difficulties keeping up.

Now, the point that you somehow managed to miss in your seemingly deliberate effort to miss the point, is that the Democrats are actually proposing solutions to the problems that Manchin’s constituents have, and the Republicans are against them. Manchin joins in with these Republicans to block legislation that would help the people who he represents.

But, as I said in a previous post, there are many Americans who are ignorant enough about how the government works that they will blame Biden for the actions of Manchin and Sinema, I appreciate you stepping up and serving as an example.

62

Thanks

Sure you can be disappointed, but the frustration and hyperbolic threats by people that don’t live in their states, seems over the top and exemplifies the feeling that party line should be followed first and personal opinions etc. fall to the back.

63

Technically nothing. Except the only thing that keeps the filibuster in place at this point is tradition. If the Democrats did that, then it may as well be gone, as there is no reason for the Republicans to not do the same if they achieve majority power.

Though, there is nothing keeping the Republicans from doing so anyway, and they will the moment that it blocks anything that they want to do, so all this gnashing of teeth and tearing of cloth about what the Democrats will do once the filibuster is gone and they are in the minority is entirely an act to prevent the Democrats from executing the will of the people, and to help to hand the government over to the authoritarians in the Republican party.

64

Not sure what “threats” you are talking about, but there’s also nothing wrong with being frustrated with someone who is making decisions that will harm the country.

It’s not about the party line, it’s about what is best for the country. Voting rights shouldn’t be a partisan issue, but the Republicans have made it one. Infrastructure shouldn’t be a partisan issue, but the Republicans have made it one. Providing support in jobs, job training, and even welfare to people displaced by automation shouldn’t be a partisan issue, but the Republicans have made it one.

That’s frustrating and annoying enough, but that someone who claims to support the ideals that the Democrats hold to then join with the Republicans in blocking these issues that shouldn’t be partisan in the first place, yeah, that’s frustrating. Not sure why there’s anything wrong with that.

65

This could be one of the “desperate times” one hears about.

66

when you said “people [who] vote for the politician that falsely promises to bring back their coal mining jobs, rather than the one that demonstrates how they will help them transition to better paying, safer, and less physically damaging jobs to replace those coal mining jobs that are never coming back.” I thought you were referring to Trump and Biden.

Did Manchin or Sinema’s opponents run on the ideas you just described?

67

That what’s bothering you, isn’t it? The Democrats don’t have majority power, at least on this issue (and others).

68

There are systems that achieve this without requiring a supercomputer but at any rate…

The US system is intended to allow for different state delegations to act autonomously but in practice in modern times it incentivizes party discipline as much or more than any other democratic system. Party discipline has been getting stronger in both parties for decades, but unfortunately the Democrats keep having these moments where they let the GOP outmaneuver them, or they eventually get to whatever the new normal is but show up late to the party. Unless the Democrats are capable of pursuing some kind of structural change to the forces that got us here, they need to do a better job electing a caucus that can get behind their most important policy items.

Manchin is a special case because there probably is no other figure who could represent the Dems in West Virginia, and it’s really hard to find people like Tester who can get elected in red states but back the party on big votes like the recent ones on BBB and the VRA. Sinema was just a mistake and should not have received the support of Democratic leadership.

69

Liberals and conservatives have fundamentally different values and cognitive systems. They’re not just randomly assigned teams. Part of the conservative way of thinking emphasizes in-groups vs out-groups, tribalism, adherence to hierarchy. This is what has allowed them to achieve extreme partisanship - they advocate/defend anything their side does, and attack anything the other side does. This has been cultivated and reinforced by decades of propaganda designed to lie, stir up outrage, and increase tribalism as part of a “culture war.”

Liberals are much less beholden to their tribal identity, they are much more likely to think about each issue on its own merits and not just always go with their group no matter what. A human shitstain like Trump can get 90%+ approval from Republicans because of this factor, whereas any Democrat that was even a quarter as awful a human being as Trump would be dumped in two seconds.

This also allows republicans to act in lockstep even against the interests of their voters. They’ve cultivated and enhanced the tribalism to the point where their poor white supporters will cut off their own noses if they think it will hurt their enemies just a little bit more. Cut off their own food stamps, refuse medicaid expansion, etc.

This means the GOP can do anything they want completely disconnected from the values or interests of their voters and still receive complete support. This means they have essentially complete party discipline and no attachment to the actual wishes of their voter base.

In comparison, democrats need to try to appeal to their people through reason, policy, etc. There’s no “my team, right or wrong” on the democrats. Most people who are democrats probably kind of hate the democratic party and definitely don’t feel like they owe them loyalty or anything like that.

That, as well as their lack of good faith, is the basis of most of the GOP “outmanuevering” the democrats. I am as critical of the ineptness of the democratic party as anyone in the world, but it’s hard to overcome a disadvantage like that. Imagine the freedom you have for political maneuvers where you don’t have to worry about the conflicts between your different bases (like how the religious right, rich people, and poor whites have very little in common), you don’t have to worry about actually delivering on any policy that helps your base, you don’t have to have character or decency, you don’t have to have rational consistency, you don’t even have to act in good faith or in the best interest in the country. All you need to do is convince people that they need to support your in-group no matter what, and hate the out-group no matter what, and you have complete and total support.

It is extremely difficult for good-faith actors actually trying to enact rational policies and manage non-cultist individuals with different values and policy desires against that unbreachable wall of tribalism with the way our political system is structured.

70

I agree that not only does the GOP get massive structural advantages in the US (and especially in the senate), the Democrats have a tougher problem to solve getting unity among their members.

But Bill Belichik also had a tough problem to solve this weekend coming up with a gameplan to stop Josh Allen. It’s his job to solve that problem. The job of Democrats is to solve their problem. Only three people get to be the Democratic leaders in their respective bodies. The Democrats have sold a lot of people (including me) on the idea that democracy is in peril, but they legislate as though times are normal and they’re still dealing with the same system and the same opposition party they always have.

71

There is nothing in BBB that will help his constituents. Those ‘good green jobs’ are a joke and always have been. There is nothing in West Virginia that gives them any kind of comparative advantage in ‘green jobs’. And Obama promised lots of green jobs, and they never materialized. Because central planning sucks. Government job creation is the biggest lie going.

Build Back Better will make inflation worse and increase taxes while requiring even more borrowed money. The child tax credit is another ‘print money and helicopter drop it on the public’ program which will increase inflation even more. Just say no. It also adds new entitlements while failing to address fiscal shortfalls in the current ones.

And clearly Manchin’s constituents don’t agree with you. Since he opposed BBB, his approval rating has gone up in West Virginia and is now double that of Joe Biden. Manchin is clearly supported in his opposition by his state. The people in his state supported the infrastructure bill, and Manchin voted for it. They don’t support Build Back Better, so he won’t either.

Democrats are just out of touch. They always think their problem is that people don’t understand what they are being offered, that their messaging just needs to be better, or that their clearly superior ideas are thwarted by lies from the deplorables. They never accept that people might understand exactly what is being offered, and simply don’t think it’s a good idea.

Remember when Obama wanted to give states free money for high speed rail, and the left thought it was incredibly stupid for red states to turn down free money for an obviously good program? Republicans were dumb, the people who elect them are dumb, etc. The Obama administration even re-directed Florida’s unused funds to California and other blue states to underscore the Republican foolishness.

That turned out to be a disaster for California. They got a measly 2.6 billion with a 1.4 billion top-up to kick off a project that has now ballooned to over $100 billion dollars and won’t be finished until at least 2033, and will cover only a fraction of the original distance and at a slower speed than the original referendum promised. As for the promised 20,000 ‘good green jobs’ that were supposed to be generated, only about 6,000 materialized. That’s roughly $15 million per job, for five years of budgeted work. So, $3 million per year per worker. That’s government ‘job creation’. And since most of those jobs are specialized, the people would have been largely poached from other existing jobs. And the tax to pay them kills even more jobs. That’s how government ‘job creation’ works.

Florida and it’s ‘stupid Republicans’ dodged a bullet, and Democrats once again showed that they are suckers for half-baked ideas that sound good if you don’t look at them too hard. The infrastructure bill and BBB are full of such half-baked ideas, like nationwide Amtrack service and a ‘green jobs corps’ that will weatherstrip the nation even though a pilot project in heavily liberal and wealthy Portland failed miserably.

Maybe some voters are smart enough to not believe the promises of government central planners.

72

And, this is why they get fewer votes each election and have to pass many laws making it harder for Republican voters to vote. It’s also why they have to gerrymander some states so that even a greater than 60% advantage by their opposition will still leave them with a majority in the state houses. It’s all so clear to me now!

73

Most of my anger isn’t directed at Manchin and Sinema.
I mean, they have both been hypocritical, and support for the filibuster makes no sense.

But, in a sane world, we wouldn’t need all Democrats to vote in lockstep because at least some republicans would vote their conscience on voter rights. Yeah I know it feels crazy to even type that out, but that’s how politics works in most democracies: some politicians vote against the party line, and cross-party consensuses (consensi) are often formed.

I don’t know where to begin with how broken the US political system is right now.
Manchin and Sinema’s decision has a much greater effect that it really should.

74

I think that’s an over-broad statement. It’s not how things work in parliamentary systems that are based on the Westminster model. Most votes are along party lines.

The difference is that the government normally has a majority, and therefore can get its programme enacted without having to hope for support from the other parties. Even when it’s a minority situation, votes tend to be along party lines. It’s rare for a member to vote against their party.

75

Nope, and you should probably stop guessing the motives and inner thoughts of other posters, you are really bad at it.

76

It’s pretty common in the UK (e.g. 100 tories voting against boris’ recent covid bill, the bill being saved by opposition support) but I’ll admit I hadn’t researched this well enough to say “most democracies”.

Let’s just say good democracies (or “true scotsman” democracies) :slight_smile:

77

So why are you so worked up about Senators Manchin and Sinema voting the way they did?

Saying that they are “letting down the American people” is more than a tad overwrought.

78

How about “They’re assholes”?

79

Assholes who don’t care a whit about the right of the people to have their say. And they’re supposed Democrats no less. They’re the kind of Democrats that Mitch McConnell could get right behind.

80

If you only have a 50 seat majority you should be hardly be surprised if one or two moderate senators have huge bargaining power. Democrats should be happy with what they have been able to get, especially the infrastructure bill. And while the White House seems to have bungled the negotiations with Manchin, they will probably have another shot to get something big maybe on climate change passed this year.

Beyond that if the Democrats want to get big stuff passed they will need to win much more consistently in purple states. Unfortunately they don’t seem to have much of a clue as to how to make that happen. They should focus their energy on that instead of raging against Manchin and Sinema.