# Outcome of nuclear escalation and general Nuclear concerns Ukraine - Russia **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [April 4, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302 "2022-04-04T23:08:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/1 "2022-04-04T23:08:28Z")
> [@Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4018): > > > [@Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4014): > > > > Are you joking? if he thinks NATO attacked Russia he obviously fucking would. > > As if Putin needs a reason to use nukes. If it were a first strike, it would have to be brutal. Like old west gunfighters, you better kill that guy with your first bullet or he will kill you with his. If Vlad felt the need to nuke someone, he would have to nuke everyone, hard, because once he launches, he absolutely knows he will get hit back harder, or at least as hard as the other guys are capable of. And with Tridents browsing about out there, he cannot knock the other guys completely. Hence, MAD play is kind of a fool’s gambit. And like field war, nuclear war does not determine who was right, only who (what) is left. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/2 "2022-04-05T00:04:02Z")
It might be possible to get away with a first-strike on environmental grounds. Russia could nuke New York City, then tell America, “We’ve already brought the planet **this** close to ecological ruin. If you hit back, that’s your right, but consider this: then more and more soot and ash will be kicked up into the atmosphere as we keep nuking back and forth, and 8 billion of us will inhabit an even-worse, past-the-point-of-no-return atmosphere-wrecked planet.” Tough, tough choices… ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/3 "2022-04-05T00:26:11Z")
You don’t understand the strategic global strike decision cycle, do you? If Russia strikes with any detectable weapon system, the US response will be on the way before Putin can say anything. Besides, the final premise of MAD is Destruction. It’s a given. The ecology would just be another victim. Rule number 1 of MAD is “you don’t flinch, ever.” Otherwise, it’s an empty bluff. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/4 "2022-04-05T00:26:31Z")
A bit of nuclear winter might give us some breathing room when it comes to CO2-induced climate change… ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/5 "2022-04-05T00:29:04Z")
I would not rule out the chance to preserve a nucleus of human specimens. It would be quite easy at the bottom some of our deeper mine shafts. Radioactivity would never penetrate a mine some thousands of feet deep, and in a matter of weeks, sufficient improvements in dwelling space could easily be provided. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/6 "2022-04-05T00:47:22Z")
The _best_ specmens? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/7 "2022-04-05T00:48:12Z")
Nuclear reactors could provide power almost indefinitely. Greenhouses could maintain plantlife. Animals could be bred and slaughtered. A quick survey would have to be made of all the available mine sites in the country. But I would guess… that ah, dwelling space for several hundred thousands of our people could easily be provided. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/8 "2022-04-05T00:55:52Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > I would not rule out the chance to preserve a nucleus of human specimens. It would be quite easy at the bottom some of our deeper mine shafts. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/ybSzoLCCX-Y/hqdefault.jpg "Mineshaft gap - Dr. Strangelove") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y) ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/9 "2022-04-05T01:09:25Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > I would not rule out the chance to preserve a nucleus of human specimens. It would be quite easy at the bottom some of our deeper mine shafts. Or maybe not. (I won’t vouch for the scientific accuracy; I don’t know enough.) > **[Level 7 (novel)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Level_7_(novel))** > > Level 7 is a 1959 science fiction novel by the Ukrainian-born Israeli writer Mordecai Roshwald. It is told from the first-person perspective (a diary) of a modern soldier, X-127, living in the underground military complex Level 7, where he and several hundred others are expected to reside permanently. X-127 fulfills the role of 'push-button' offensive initiator of his nation's nuclear weapons capacity against an unspecified enemy. X-127 narrates life within a deep shelter before, during and af Du... ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/10 "2022-04-05T02:49:26Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > Rule number 1 of MAD is “you don’t flinch, ever.” Otherwise, it’s an empty bluff. What if Putin thinks we ARE bluffing? If he drops a tactical nuke on Kiev, are you sure Biden and NATO will commit to global thermonuclear devastation? Or will they decide Ukraine isn’t worth suicide? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/11 "2022-04-05T02:50:49Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > If he drops a tactical nuke on Kiev, are you sure Biden and NATO will commit to global thermonuclear devastation? Or will they decide Ukraine isn’t worth suicide? If a nuke gets dropped on Kiev, then global thermonuclear war is inevitable regardless of what Biden and NATO commit to. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/12 "2022-04-05T02:52:12Z")
Not if NATO doesn’t reciprocate. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/13 "2022-04-05T02:54:50Z")
If NATO doesn’t reciprocate, then Russia follows up with a full first strike on the west, because it knows that it can do so without fear of reprisal. That is, of course, assuming that Russia doesn’t launch a full first strike at the same time as it attacks Kiev. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/14 "2022-04-05T02:56:35Z")
What if Putin calculates he can get away with nukes against non-NATO targets, and doesn’t strike anyone else? ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/15 "2022-04-05T02:58:43Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > If NATO doesn’t reciprocate, then Russia follows up with a full first strike on the west, because it knows that it can do so without fear of reprisal. I grew up on the tail end of the Cold War, so I understand the concept of mutually assured destruction. But why would NATO nations reciprocate if Ukraine was the target of a nuclear attack? Ukraine is isn’t part of NATO. An attack on Ukraine is not an attack on the United States, France, or Great Britain. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/16 "2022-04-05T02:58:57Z")
Then World War III is over and Russia has won, because the west has in effect surrendered by showing that Russia can use nuclear force to achieve its aims with impunity. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/17 "2022-04-05T02:59:58Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I grew up on the tail end of the Cold War, so I understand the concept of mutually assured destruction. But why would NATO nations reciprocate if Ukraine was the target of a nuclear attack? Can the west afford to assume, in the handful of minutes it has to make a decision, that Ukraine is the only target? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/18 "2022-04-05T03:00:10Z")
Correct. So we live to fight another day. The only way to win is not to play. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/19 "2022-04-05T03:00:56Z")
There is no reason the West has to make ANY nuclear decision in minutes. That’s the whole purpose of ballistic-missile submarines - they buy you lots of time. Land-based ICBMs and bombers can be destroyed within an hour by an enemy, but your submarines will survive and you can still call upon them to retaliate long after the first attack. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2022, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/20 "2022-04-05T03:04:20Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > So we live to fight another day. The only way to win is not to play. Which means making it absolutely clear that any nuclear strike on Russia’s part will be met with immediate and massive reprisal in kind. It’s the only effective deterrent in our arsenal. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302.md?page=2)