# Outcome of nuclear escalation and general Nuclear concerns Ukraine - Russia
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion
**Created:** [April 4, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302 "2022-04-04T23:08:28Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 10
### Author:  [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/183 "2022-04-20T01:30:46Z")
Wait until in response to the West arming Ukraine Putin declares that henceforth Russia will consider the Ukrainian resistance a “proxy war” with NATO, and that it will use any means necessary to win.
---
### Author:  [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/184 "2022-04-20T01:46:45Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> There was a BBC programme a few years ago - I wish I could remember what it was called - where they assembled a number of ex-military and political leaders and advisors, put them in a mock bunker, and then simulated various military attacks on the UK.
Was it [World War Three - Inside The War Room](https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/proginfo/2016/05/inside-the-war-room)?
---
### Author:  [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/185 "2022-04-20T09:37:07Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#):
>
> An expert on BBC’s daily Ukrainecast podcast made a really good point today. Every time Russia commits an atrocity they have blamed it on Ukraine. However if they used a tactical nuclear weapon they would have to own it. So she thought it really would be a proper last resort.
Nope, if Russia uses a nuke they’ll still blame it on Ukraine, claiming they had a secret stash of nukes. Just like they’ve claimed Ukraine has bioweapons labs that it doesn’t actually have.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/186 "2022-04-20T10:05:32Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> You do realize that Australia was inhabited before the development of a global supply chain, right?
Yes, by a small group of people who had spent thousands of years learning to live that way. Those people will mostly be OK. Everyone else: dead in 6 weeks.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/187 "2022-04-20T10:12:49Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#):
>
> Unless of course, we do _not_ retaliate against a nuclear attack.
>
> Then instead of pretty much everyone being set back to pre-industrial era, everyone is instead now oppressed by Russian expansion.
Nah. If Russia actually does a full nuclear attack on the US, it will be more or less the same outcome.
Look, the [projections](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/9/20903418/study-nuclear-war-india-pakistan-could-lead-to-mini-nuclear-winter) for an India-Pakistan exchange of 100 warheads forecast _10 years_ of nuclear winter causing a famine that would eventually kill 2 billion people.
That’s just for 100 warheads. A Russian decapitation strike would involve 2,000 warheads.
Even in that case, everyone still faces food starvation and energy starvation from the collapse of global trade. Russia has some modern infrastructure intact, but they suffer massive loss of population and social collapse. They’re not expanding anywhere.
There is no point retaliating. Of course in the perverse logic of deterrence we have to threaten as if we’re serious, but the only point of _actually_ retaliating is to win a dick-measuring contest that still ends in the collapse of global civilization and the death of every person who isn’t already self-subsistent off the land.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/188 "2022-04-20T10:17:32Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Yes, by a small group of people who had spent thousands of years learning to live that way.
Was there a “global supply chain” in 1900 when there was a population of nearly 4 million living in Australia?
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Look, the [projections](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/9/20903418/study-nuclear-war-india-pakistan-could-lead-to-mini-nuclear-winter) for an India-Pakistan exchange of 100 warheads forecast _10 years_ of nuclear winter causing a famine that would eventually kill 2 billion people.
Leaving 6 billion alive, you say? How will the human race ever endure being reduced to the levels it was at 30 years ago?
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> There is no point retaliating. Of course in the perverse logic of deterrence we have to threaten as if we’re serious, but the only point of _actually_ retaliating is to win a dick-measuring contest that still ends in the collapse of global civilization and the death of every person who isn’t already self-subsistent off the land.
Here’s a protip: threats don’t work if you tell the enemy they’re empty.
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Even in that case, everyone still faces food starvation and energy starvation from the collapse of global trade.
Human civilization did just fine without global trade for the entirety of human history up until the last 50 years or so. Humanity can learn to manage without it. Humanity is more capable than you give it credit for.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/189 "2022-04-20T10:20:47Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Was there a “global supply chain” in 1900 when there was a population of nearly 4 million living in Australia?
Yes, actually there was. There were 4 million people because that’s what global trade could support in 1900. Colonized Australia has never been self-sufficient.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/190 "2022-04-20T10:24:06Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Colonized Australia has never been self-sufficient.
Ahem.
> **[How many people can Australia feed?](https://theconversation.com/how-many-people-can-australia-feed-76460)**
>
> Australia feeds tens of millions, at home and abroad. But if our population doubles by 2061, as some projections suggest, we’ll need some smart strategies to keep those people fed.
> [@](#):
>
> Australia feeds a lot of people. As a big country with a relatively small population, we have just over two arable hectares per person, one of the [highest ratios in the world](http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4691e.pdf). Our diverse soils and climate provide a wide variety of fresh food all year round.
>
> Historically we produce far more than we consume domestically. We sell [around 65% of farm production](http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezproxy.library.uq.edu.au/science/article/pii/S0308521X15300482) overseas, making Australia a leading food-exporting nation. We therefore contribute to the food security not just of Australia, but of many other nations…
>
> Australian food processing companies add a further A$32 billion of value from 150 large food processors. We exported $A26 billion worth of processed food and beverages in 2015-16 and imported A$16.8 billion, resulting in a [trade surplus of A$9.1 billion](http://www.afgc.org.au/wp-content/uploads/AFGC_State-of-the-Industry-2016.pdf) (rounded to one decimal place).
But do go on about how Australia will starve to death if not for boatloads of Spam.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/191 "2022-04-20T10:25:25Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Leaving 6 billion alive, you say? How will the human race ever endure being reduced to the levels it was at 30 years ago?
It seems like you utterly failed to apprehend that the loss of 2 billion people was the _best_ case, the case from a mere use of 100 warheads. We are now talking about a Russian first strike that would involve 2,00 warheads. Not to get all mathy, but that’s 20 times as many.
Do you get the basis for comparison now?
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/192 "2022-04-20T10:27:12Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Not to get all mathy, but that’s 20 times as many.
You’re being awfully generous in assuming that Russia even has 2,000 functioning and deployable warheads. What we’ve seen of them in the past two months suggests otherwise.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/193 "2022-04-20T10:29:24Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> But do go on about how Australia will starve to death if not for boatloads of Spam.
LOL, Australia imports virtually all of its energy. Food production for “tens of millions” halts without energy. Do you actually think tens of millions of accountants are going to learn to plow their own land with a donkey in the 6 weeks before food supplies on hand run out?
Food is energy. Without energy imports, Australia is back to pre-colonization levels, except with a ton of hungry colonists fighting over scraps.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/194 "2022-04-20T10:30:50Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> You’re being awfully generous in assuming that Russia even has 2,000 functioning and deployable warheads. What we’ve seen of them in the past two months suggests otherwise.
This suggests that you know nothing about Russia’s deterrent force, and would prefer to make some bold guesses to win an internet argument.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/195 "2022-04-20T10:31:12Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> LOL, Australia imports virtually all of its energy.
[Energy in Australia - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Australia#:~:text=Energy%20policy%20of%20Australia%20describes,in%20the%20world%20in%202009).
> [@](#):
>
> Australia is a net energy exporter, and was the fourth-highest coal producer in the world in 2009.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/196 "2022-04-20T10:32:15Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> This suggests that you know nothing about Russia’s deterrent force
I know that pretty much everything they claim about the strength, prowess, and armament of their modern military has been proven false in the past two months.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/197 "2022-04-20T10:34:28Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Australia is a net energy exporter, and was the fourth-highest coal producer in the world in 2009.
You can’t run a tractor off coal. Jesus, get serious here. Australia imports half of its oil. Most of its oil-drilling equipment is made in other countries and can’t be sustained without parts off the global supply chain.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/198 "2022-04-20T10:36:37Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> You can’t run a tractor off coal.
> **[Steam tractor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_tractor)**
>
> A steam tractor is a vehicle powered by a steam engine which is used for pulling.
> In North America, the term steam tractor usually refers to a type of agricultural tractor powered by a steam engine, used extensively in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
> In Great Britain, the term steam tractor is more usually applied to the smallest models of traction engine – typically those weighing seven tons or less – used for hauling small loads on public roads. Although known as light steam tractors...
---
### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/199 "2022-04-20T10:48:56Z")
Uh huh. And the Nazis designed a [plane powered by coal.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lippisch_P.13a?wprov=sfla1)
> As conventional fuels were in extremely short supply by late 1944, Lippisch proposed that the P.13a be powered by coal.
And we could go back to cars powered by Fred Flintstone’s two feet.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/200 "2022-04-20T10:49:50Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> And we could go back to cars powered by Fred Flintstone’s two feet.
Do you suppose the people of the world are just going to lie down in a ditch and wait for death because there’s no gas at the Chevron?
---
### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/201 "2022-04-20T10:51:38Z")
That’s exactly what happens when a person starves to death.
---
### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 20, 2022, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/202 "2022-04-20T10:52:28Z")
When faced with starving to death or not starving to death, most people choose to pursue the latter.
[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302.md?page=9)
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302.md?page=11)