# Outcome of nuclear escalation and general Nuclear concerns Ukraine - Russia
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion
**Created:** [April 4, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302 "2022-04-04T23:08:28Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/21 "2022-04-05T03:04:31Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Can the west afford to assume, in the handful of minutes it has to make a decision, that Ukraine is the only target?
Maybe? It’s just not a given to me that a nuclear strike against Ukraine would result in the United States, Great Britain, or France launching a nuclear weapon at Moscow. And believe me, I’m not keen to figure out which one of us is right.
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### Author:  [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/22 "2022-04-05T03:13:19Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Which means making it absolutely clear that any nuclear strike on Russia’s part will be met with immediate and massive reprisal in kind. It’s the only effective deterrent in our arsenal.
Yeah, I’ve never seen any honest simulation of a limited nuclear exchange that didn’t expand to a wider exchange in short order. Pretty much the only time you could credibly use them was when only one country had them, and/or the only delivery devices were airplanes. It’s hard to shoot down a missile, and even harder to shoot down all of them. Once ICBMs are in the picture, if someone starts shooting them off, everyone else pretty much decides doomsday is at hand. Even if it stars with a tactical nuke, the escalation has begun and no one knows where it will end.
If it happens and the exchange is actually limited, it would be a miracle.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/23 "2022-04-05T03:19:36Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Which means making it absolutely clear that any nuclear strike on Russia’s part will be met with immediate and massive reprisal in kind. It’s the only effective deterrent in our arsenal.
What if Putin doesn’t believe that? There are no absolute deterrents, only decisions about what to do when your rational policy meets an irrational actor.
“Dying on your feet is better than living on your knees” sounds a lot better when you aren’t faced with actual annihilation.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/24 "2022-04-05T03:24:59Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> What if Putin doesn’t believe that?
Then we’re screwed, aren’t we? If he insists on pressing the button, then we have no choice but to retaliate.
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> “Dying on your feet is better than living on your knees” sounds a lot better when you aren’t faced with actual annihilation.
I have no illusions that I’ll survive a nuclear war - I live in a state capital with a medium-size port and a nearby Army/Air Force base, in a region with a significant amount of tech/transportation infrastructure and a significant portion of our nuclear defense resources, and if I’m not killed immediately or else mortally wounded when the bombs fall, I’ll probably be done in by radiation, famine, or exposure. The question is whether we allow Vladimir Putin to be the ruler of the world order that arises after that war, and I don’t consider that to be acceptable.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/25 "2022-04-05T03:29:14Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Then we’re screwed, aren’t we? If he insists on pressing the button, then we have no choice but to retaliate.
Of course we have a choice. Choose to live, or choose to die. There are are infinite outcomes if we do not retaliate against a tactical nuke. There is is only one outcome if we do retaliate.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/26 "2022-04-05T03:31:18Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> The question is whether we allow Vladimir Putin to be the ruler of the world order that arises after that war, and I don’t consider that to be acceptable.
Putin is mortal. His reign would be temporary. Nuclear annihilation is forever.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/27 "2022-04-05T03:32:39Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Of course we have a choice. Choose to live, or choose to die. There are are infinite outcomes if we do not retaliate against a tactical nuke.
You seem to be assuming that Russia will launch one nuclear strike against Ukraine and then that will be it.
You act as if it won’t embolden him to nuke any other former Soviet satellite states, or that China won’t take license to nuke Taiwan, North Korea won’t be emboldened to attack the South, Israel won’t start popping off nukes at its neighbors, India and Pakistan won’t start a dust-up, and that, once the genie is out of the bottle, there won’t eventually be some escalation that will result in a general exchange.
That’s simply not going to work out that way.
> [@Russia invades Ukraine {2022-02-24} (Part 1)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/russia-invades-ukraine-2022-02-24-part-1/960037/4055):
>
> Nuclear annihilation is forever.
Then any power that would launch a first strike must be annihilated.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/28 "2022-04-05T03:34:31Z")
> [@Smapti](#):
>
> Then any power that would launch a first strike must be annihilated.
That is not within our power.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/29 "2022-04-05T03:35:23Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> That is not within our power.
Then “nuclear annihilation” isn’t something we have to worry about, now is it?
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/30 "2022-04-05T03:36:50Z")
Mutual annihilation is what we must worry about. Some fantasy about killing them before they kill us just isn’t realistic.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/31 "2022-04-05T03:39:11Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Mutual annihilation is what we must worry about
Which brings us back to deterrent - we have to make absolutely sure that Putin knows we aren’t bluffing, and we have to be prepared to make good on that.
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Some fantasy about killing them before they kill us just isn’t realistic
Of course it isn’t. The idea isn’t to kill them before they kill us - it’s to make sure that if we’re going to die, we make sure they die too, so that they won’t be the ones who define the future for those who survive.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/32 "2022-04-05T03:40:34Z")
So nuclear winter is preferable to Russian domination?
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/33 "2022-04-05T03:41:20Z")
No - nuclear winter is preferable to nuclear winter and Russian domination.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/34 "2022-04-05T03:43:51Z")
Nuclear winter can be avoided, even if Putin uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine. But not if we retaliate.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/35 "2022-04-05T03:46:06Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Nuclear winter can be avoided, even if Putin uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine.
I don’t see a scenario where a Russian first strike doesn’t escalate.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/36 "2022-04-05T03:51:00Z")
But it could. If we retaliate, all is lost. What you are doing is giving Putin all the control over the fate of the world. “Don’t move or the [Sheriff] gets it!” is not a real world strategy for survival.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/37 "2022-04-05T03:53:12Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> “Don’t move or the [Sheriff] gets it” is not a real world strategy for survival.
It’s worked just fine for the last 70+ years.
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> If we retaliate, all is lost. What you are doing is giving Putin all the control over the fate of the world.
You’ve got that backwards. Letting him know that he can nuke whoever he wants while we sit on our hands is giving him control.
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### Author:  [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/38 "2022-04-05T03:55:02Z")
I didn’t say he could nuke anyone he wants. But there are alternatives to tactical nukes in Ukraine that do not destroy the world.
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### Author:  [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/39 "2022-04-05T03:57:50Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> I didn’t say he could nuke anyone he wants.
Alright, so what’s the line? Is he allowed to nuke Georgia? Kazakhstan? Syria? How about Finland or Moldova?
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### Author:  [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)
#### Post date: [April 5, 2022, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/40 "2022-04-05T04:00:46Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> Nuclear annihilation is forever.
Ah… like Student Loans.
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