# Outcome of nuclear escalation and general Nuclear concerns Ukraine - Russia
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion
**Tags:** ukraine-invasion
**Created:** [April 4, 2022, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302 "2022-04-04T23:08:28Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 5
### Author:  [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/81 "2022-04-06T16:29:32Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#):
>
> Moscow, specifically, is unimportant for my point. Target Putin with everything. Or a large number of things. Spare the population at large.
We don’t know where Putin is. He’s likely in a bunker in the middle of a mountain, somewhere far from major population centers.
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### Author:  [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/82 "2022-04-06T16:42:00Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#):
>
> _if_ a full scale nuclear exchange is initiated, im all in favour of focusing all of our nuke on putin himself.
> [@Fear\_Itself](#):
>
> What makes you think Putin is in Moscow?
Fer Cryin’ Out Loud it took us 11 years to find Bin Laden It took 9 months to find Saddam Hussein and he was less than 50 miles from Baghdad.
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### Author:  [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/83 "2022-04-06T16:43:04Z")
Or, like the US president in such a situation, in an airplane.
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### Author:  [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/84 "2022-04-06T17:44:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> But that’s what ballistic-missile submarines are for - so that you don’t have to shoot back immediately. You can ride out the first wave and take time to think. Your subs ensure that you have retaliatory ability, so that you don’t have to rush any decision.
No, that is not what nuclear submarine weapons are for. SLBMs are not as accurate as ICBMs. SLBM are for the last thump on the surviving targets, they are not for initial launch. They are the Assured part of MAD.
I’m not saying that we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but 10 to 20 million people tops!
[Dr. Strangelove: I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcK6ad_t9ak)
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### Author:  [@JacobSwan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JacobSwan)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/85 "2022-04-06T17:47:39Z")
There’s spare yachts that have been confiscated. So tell him that he’s won a free yacht in a raffle. But he has to turn up in person to collect it.
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/86 "2022-04-06T18:59:44Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#):
>
> Or, like the US president in such a situation, in an airplane.
The ones they can’t get parts for? 🙂
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### Author:  [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/87 "2022-04-06T21:01:44Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#):
>
> SLBMs are not as accurate as ICBMs.
Wikipedia gives CEP of Trident D-5 as 90 meters, Minuteman-III as 120 meters.
OK, take it with some massive grains of salt: actual test performance for any of these missiles is highly classified, so we don’t know what real life performance is like. Frankly, I’m surprised that there’s any cited advantage to the SLBM system, because it stands to reason that they could use the same techniques to increase the accuracy of Minuteman as well. Plus, there are almost certain to be fratricidal effects in actual use. But if the actual performance of Trident and Minuteman III are approximately what is specified, Trident is about as accurate as the silo missile, which kinda makes you wonder why we keep the more vulnerable missiles around.
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### Author:  [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/88 "2022-04-06T21:02:22Z")
> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> The ones they can’t get parts for? 🙂
you can easy get parts for those … for every 9 flying you keep 1 in the garage as parts donor and you can probably go for years
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### Author:  [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/89 "2022-04-06T21:33:52Z")
Until the same part dies twice. “_Another_ left elevator motor? Crap!”
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### Author:  [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/90 "2022-04-06T21:49:34Z")
Mutual defense agreements are relevant to tanks rolling into territory. We didn’t take direct action in Ukraine when the Russian tanks rolled in, because we don’t have a mutual defense treaty. But mutual defense agreements are completely irrelevant when it comes to nukes.
If any nation launches a nuclear first strike against any target, then the only possible rational response by other nations is to ensure that the aggressor nation ceases to exist, as quickly as possible. Because if Putin is willing and able to nuke Kyiv, then he’s also willing and able to nuke Washington, or Paris, or Tokyo, or Beijing. A nation that is willing to use nukes is an existential threat to the entire rest of the world.
If India or Pakistan or the like were to launch a nuclear first strike, then the sane nations of the world might decide that they could retaliate quickly enough with conventional weapons. But Russia is far too big for that to be possible. The only way to even have a chance to remove Russia’s threat quickly enough is with our own nukes.
And we probably would still take damage in that scenario. Probably, a Hell of a lot of it. But it’d still be less damage than if we didn’t respond with overwhelming force.
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### Author:  [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)
#### Post date: [April 6, 2022, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/91 "2022-04-06T22:52:30Z")
> [@DesertDog](#):
>
> Until the same part dies twice. “ _Another_ left elevator motor? Crap!”
Correct! If a part breaks on one, it is more likely to break on another one. And another. Some pieces/systems are just failure-prone, no matter what you do. The equation is more like 5-10 hanger queens to keep 1-2 useable.
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### Author:  [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)
#### Post date: [April 7, 2022, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/92 "2022-04-07T08:05:19Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#):
>
> Fer Cryin’ Out Loud it took us 11 years to find Bin Laden It took 9 months to find Saddam Hussein and he was less than 50 miles from Baghdad.
Neither of them were running a country at the time. You can hide a person, but you can’t hide that huge a volume of incoming and outgoing communications.
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### Author:  [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)
#### Post date: [April 7, 2022, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/93 "2022-04-07T12:00:32Z")
I’m not sure the Emperor in this case is getting all that huge a volume of incoming and outgoing communications. The yes men can do that business the old-fashioned way, serving the paranoid lunatic.
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### Author:  [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)
#### Post date: [April 7, 2022, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/94 "2022-04-07T12:25:40Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#):
>
> _if_ a full scale nuclear exchange is initiated, im all in favour of focusing all of our nuke on putin himself. Yeah, the people of Moscow (assuming that’s where he is at the time) will have a very bad day. But it saves untold millions of innocent humans from death. Ok, “we” don’t “win.” But for fucks sake, we got him out of power. Isn’t that enough? Why do we have to kill everyone else? For revenge?
A “full-scale nuclear exchange” means THE END OF EVERYTHING, dude. There is absolutely nothing that has happened in any war, ever, that would not be completely dwarfed by the effects of a modern nuclear war. The Holocaust will look like Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood in comparison. There is NOTHING that has occurred in the conflict happening in Ukraine that is remotely a justification for a nuclear exchange.
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### Author:  [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)
#### Post date: [April 7, 2022, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/95 "2022-04-07T12:28:49Z")
Eh, the end of civilization, and probably most of the population.
But there will be some survivors, not that I would envy them.
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### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [April 7, 2022, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/96 "2022-04-07T12:40:48Z")
> [@SunUp](#):
>
> But if the actual performance of Trident and Minuteman III are approximately what is specified, Trident is about as accurate as the silo missile, which kinda makes you wonder why we keep the more vulnerable missiles around.
The silo missiles tend to be much longer-ranged, and longer ranges pretty much explains the difference. Even if they had the same properties, the missile that travels farther will tend to be less accurate, since the errors add up for a longer period of time.
One advantage of the SLMBs is that, being shorter-range, they tend to get there sooner. Nuking Moscow from the North Sea is different from Nuking Moscow from Kansas.
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### Author:  [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)
#### Post date: [April 8, 2022, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/98 "2022-04-08T02:57:37Z")
> [@F111lovemissile](#):
>
> if i understand correctly, there seems to be 2 camps debating this issue.
There’s a third, smaller group that thinks nuclear attack doesn’t automatically mean nuclear response.
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### Author:  [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)
#### Post date: [April 8, 2022, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/99 "2022-04-08T03:40:56Z")
MAD works until ot doesn’t. Once a full scale strike is initiated by one side, what’s the point in full scale retaliation?
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### Author:  [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)
#### Post date: [April 8, 2022, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/101 "2022-04-08T22:26:18Z")
Because if you didn’t have the resolve to retaliate, that’s why they initiated the attack.
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### Author:  [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)
#### Post date: [April 8, 2022, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/outcome-of-nuclear-escalation-and-general-nuclear-concerns-ukraine-russia/962302/102 "2022-04-08T22:39:35Z")
Because you don’t want the [censored]s who did this to you to have any chance of dominating what’s left of the world.
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