If you think that just because global supply chains fail, the human race just sits there and dies, that tells me you don’t know shit about people and how resilient they can be when times get hard.
Yeah it’s cool to puff up your chest and talk about a resilient can-do spirit, but that doesn’t get you very far when your entire continent’s society was founded on the assumption of abundant imports of food and energy, and one day they simply halt.
To be clear, the human race likely does survive. Existing hunter-gatherers, subsistence farmers, and pastoralists will be largely OK. In a few months, everybody else will starve or freeze to death. In a generation, they and all their works will be forgotten. It will be the end of this history and (maybe) the beginning of a new one.
You do realize that back in those days there were far, far, far fewer people in Australia, right? Fewer mouths to feed. Also, those same people had some very good survival skills. Modern suburbanites… not so much.
And here’s another factor: North Korea is getting enthusiastic about their own nuclear program, and IMO it’s clear the only deterrent they’re going to respond to is “yes, if you do start throwing those, we WILL return the favor”. Do we really want to roll over and cave in to Putin because he’s rattling his nukes, thus teaching North Korea they have no REAL opposition to be concerned about if they decide Seoul or Tokyo should become a glow-in-the-dark parking lot?
The only sure way to prevent Russia from nuking anyone is to ensure that they understand we will respond in exactly the same way as if they had attacked us directly, yes.
If they nuke anyone, it’ll be because they thought we were too chickenshit to follow through, possibly because of people signaling out loud that they aren’t really gonna use nukes.
An expert on BBC’s daily Ukrainecast podcast made a really good point today. Every time Russia commits an atrocity they have blamed it on Ukraine. However if they used a tactical nuclear weapon they would have to own it. So she thought it really would be a proper last resort.