Isn’t it at least a possibility that many of these dug in artillery positions in the North have not been properly maintained? Will the guns fire, will the ammo explode, will the troops stay in their positions or run like hell when the shooting starts?
Many of these artillery sites have existed for over 50 years. Maintaining readiness for that long could be a problem. “Oh, that’s good enough. We’re never going to use it anyway.”
My first target would not be hardware - it would be the crews - DPRK is awash with soilders - the military gets fed first.
Given that these guns are the only thing keeping US/ROK from coming across the DMZ, I’m guessing the crews are the best the army can muster.
Still, they are both human and paid absolutely miserably by ROK standards.
And quite easily gassed, poisoned, either destroyed outright or at least their performance substantially degraded.
Of course,it is absolutely incomprehensible to me why Seoul has grown NORTH - hugging the DMZ.
Only those who can really understand this behavior can speak to the mindset of the South.
Anybody know the relative real estate prices of Seoul? Does having a penthouse view of DPRK artillery command a premium price on the market?
Brag to your friends! “I’m going to catch the very first round when the shooting starts!”.
Strange, very strange
The Orange One missed an excellent opportunity - sent a Tomahawk down the parade route of the annual military show.
Maybe get the SpaceX folks to modify a tomahawk so it can land on its tail in front of the Fat Boy.
Could be a real giggle.
I foresee a repeat of the Gulf Wars first aerial bombardment. It was called shock and awe.
All the targets were preselected to knock out command & control centers, all the radar and other air defenses. I don’t recall the numbers. It had to be over a thousand sorties in one night.
Iraq’s air defenses were gone after that first night.
I see something similar planbed for N. Korea. We’ve had sixty years to prepare the first nights attack. We should have all these targets dialed in.
I doubt we can completely save Seoul. They’re too darn close to the border. They’ll pay dearly for that decision. They had to know this day was coming.
Has anyone done any work on how willingly the NK soldiers would follow their orders if the NK command were destroyed?
Your Tomahawk attack would probably have lead to the deaths of thousands if not tens of thousands of South Koreans and many others including US troops, but I’m sure you would have been on the fronts lines of this board defending what you suggested President Trump do.
@Quartz: Troops follow the orders they know about. If HQ is destroyed, they’ll keep following whatever orders come down from above. They will have no idea that HQ is gone until the substitute HQ tells them it’s gone.
NK leadership has been harping to their public and their military for years that 100% of what you hear from SK or the outside world is a lie. Listen only and always to your leader and no other. So efforts by US/SK psyops to persuade NK troops to surrender their lost cause will be falling on pretty deaf ears.
But will they?
But will they?
It’s a bog-standard mistake in warfare to assume that your enemy, because he’s a moral degenerate (or a downtrodden peasant) will not fight for his cause.
History is rife with tales of overconfident leaderships who assumed their enemy would be a pushover whose troops would quickly surrender or even switch sides. The record of this actually happening anywhere at any time is very, very thin.
There’s no harm in trying a little (or even a lot) of psyops in hopes of getting some of that very rare outcome. But is smacks very deeply of hubris to make that a nontrivial part of any pre-war argument for success.
Making such predictions about a country where substantially 100% of the citizenry was born under the Kim dynasty and where totalitarian social indoctrination is far far different from anything you or I can comprehend really is hubris. You’d do as well to predict the behavior of space aliens.
Yeah. The average North Korean soldier might not care much for the Kim’s. Or even the political situation. Its very likely he cares for the men in his unit. Whats the old saying? Men will fight for their country. They will die for their comrades.
If you can’t switch them (I doubt that you can - maybe buy them off well in advance of your attack; never count on converting a person you are shooting at), the other option is to kill/disable them.
Either way, the crews are easier to manipulate then the hardware they handle.
Nope, that’s a canard. The Maginot line exactly served its intended purpose. France’s failure wasn’t the Maginot line.
It’s absolutely incomprehensible to me that people want to live in cities build on a fault line (seriously). Still, there are 4 millions people living around Los Angeles. I assume the reasons, whatever they are, are similar.
Also, would living, say, 5 kilometers to the south actually change anything, as long as you’re within artillery range? I would assume that the North-Koreans would pick the most significant targets rather than the closest ones.
I don’t think that ** LSLGuy** is disagreeing with you there.
What did Hitler say about Russia? Ah yes - “We need to only kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.”