# Overly early predictions for November 2016

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/overly-early-predictions-for-november-2016/754050>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [May 6, 2016, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/overly-early-predictions-for-november-2016/754050 "2016-05-06T08:39:17Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\
**Post date:** [May 6, 2016, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/overly-early-predictions-for-november-2016/754050/1 "2016-05-06T08:39:17Z")

</div>

[My first approximation of the](http://www.270towin.com/maps/qZJyQ) Electoral College map for the 2016 Presidential election.  
Now, right now this is very rough. The map comes from [270 To Win](http://www.270towin.com/) - you can fill in your own guesses and post links too! Then I went over to [PredictWise](http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner) and started assigning by the probabilities there. Anything 75% or more for the “Democratic party” went to Clinton; all the rest went to Trump. As you can see, that gives a bare win to the Democrats; I’d expect a couple of the states to swing to the blue.

I’ll keep an eye on polling, and update\* as necessary.

\*maybe here, if there’s any interest