# Packers v. Bears: NFC Championship Game. **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 21, 2011, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478 "2011-01-21T18:18:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/341 "2011-01-24T19:55:16Z")
> [@markdash](#): > > Yes, but the line has to start somewhere, doesn’t it? And it starts where the guys in Vegas (or wherever that company is) decide to set it. Of course; but it rarely moves more than a point or two either way. It’s already dropped from 3 to 2.5. Barring some development, I doubt it ever goes below 2. _That’s_ the skill of Vegas – they can predict what the crowd will predict. ETA – and as Varlos’ post points out, there isn’t one definitive line: dozens of bookmakers come up with lines … and they are all within a point. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/342 "2011-01-24T19:58:55Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Since the opening lines are the most error prone (not having been corrected by the market), serious bettors will make sure to get a crack at them as soon as they come out. As you said, the Superbowl line is, I would guess, harder to move because of (a) volume and (b) breadth of people betting. For the market to correct a line, betting has to be rationally based, and it isn’t. I’d say that effect is magnified on an event like the Superbowl, where a lot of fans will place their only bet of the year. Also, the market can “correct” a line in the wrong way. Notre Dame, for example, are always good to bet against, because there are so many blind Notre Dame fans backing the team that it distorts the line. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/343 "2011-01-24T20:11:22Z")
> [@villa](#): > > Also, the market can “correct” a line in the wrong way. Notre Dame, for example, are always good to bet against, because there are so many blind Notre Dame fans backing the team that it distorts the line. I wonder if that’s not what’s going on here, to an extent. I can easily imagine that there’s a lot of hardcore Packer fans\* who are going to bet on the Packers\*\*, regardless of the spread. - - There are undoubtedly many such Steeler fans, too. The line being where it is makes me wonder if there are more such Packer fans. \*\* - I’d classify myself as a hardcore Packer fan. I’m simply not interested in gambling. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/344 "2011-01-24T20:18:39Z")
I don’t think so, seeing as it opened that way. Though Vegas could have been predicting that, but I would say there are as many diehard Steelers fans doing the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/345 "2011-01-24T20:24:17Z")
The Steelers have a much larger fanbase nationally. They and the Cowboys both rank in the top 5 in team-branded merchandise sold pretty much every year. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/346 "2011-01-24T20:39:33Z")
On the radio they said this is the first Super Bowl line under a field goal in 28 years. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/347 "2011-01-24T20:41:49Z")
> [@furt](#): > > The Steelers have a much larger fanbase nationally. They and the Cowboys both rank in the top 5 in team-branded merchandise sold pretty much every year. That may be, but how do the Steelers rank in fans willing to bet on them no matter what? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/348 "2011-01-24T20:59:18Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > On the radio they said this is the first Super Bowl line under a field goal in 28 years. Yep, looks like it’s also tied for the third lowest Super Line line of all time. > **[NFL Super Bowl History & Betting Guide - Totals, Spreads, Lines](https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/superbowl/history/)** > > NFL Super Bowl betting line history, results and wagering information leading up to Super Bowl 59 provided by VegasInsider.com. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/349 "2011-01-24T21:22:07Z")
So not only did the Vikings lose every Superbowl they were in, they have failed to cover in all of them. Chokers. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/350 "2011-01-24T22:01:25Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > So fucking sweet. I could hear the wails and gnashing of teeth of Bears fans fly across Southern Illinois, where they landed in my ears and made me smile. Not to get internet creepy, but which part of SoIll? I’m at SIU. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/351 "2011-01-24T22:10:06Z")
> [@villa](#): > > So not only did the Vikings lose every Superbowl they were in, they have failed to cover in all of them. Chokers. Aggregate: 34-95 (-61) Average: 8.50-23.75 (-15.25) The were +9 in any of the Super Bowls they wouldn’t have covered. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Peyote\_Coyote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f8ce5/32.png) [@The\_Peyote\_Coyote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Peyote_Coyote)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/352 "2011-01-24T22:12:28Z")
Garrison Keiller had a good joke about the Vikings on last Saturday’s edition of _A Prarie Home Companion_. Why are the Vikings like possums? They play dead at home and get killed on the road. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/353 "2011-01-24T22:23:33Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > And if it had been that Rodgers, the game wouldn’t have even been close. > > I really don’t want to talk you out of liking Cutler, I’m glad the Bears gave up 2 first rounders, a third rounder, and a QB for him and put him behind a makeshift O Line. But I think he’s not now, and likely not going to be, a great QB. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll be fine, but I think his head will continue to keep him from becoming great. He couldn’t make Martz’s offense work, so they changed Martz’s offense to better suit what Jay does. I’m not sure he has the desire to put in the hard work it takes to truly be successful as an NFL QB. > > When he’s Good Jay, he’s very good. When he’s Bad Jay, he’s awful bad. But even Average Jay doesn’t do it for me. There’s a reason he was the 16th rated QB this year and 21st rated last year. He makes bad decisions and expects his God given talents to save him every time, which it doesn’t always. It works when he’s playing the Seahawks, or the Vikings, but it doesn’t always work against great defenses. > > It will be interesting to see when we can decide whether his potential continues to outweigh his production, though. The guy needs to start correcting his own issues, but that he’s the 16th ranked QB on the season with both an offensive line and WR corps in the bottom 5 of the league has to be factored in. He’s also is a pass happy offense with a middling running game. All factors are recipes for trouble. How efficient would he be on say the Jets or Chiefs offenses? The Texans or the Giants? All more examples of how his constantly losing the PR game gets him killed in mindshare. ---
**Author:** ![Hal\_Briston](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9a28c/32.png) [@Hal\_Briston](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hal_Briston)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/354 "2011-01-24T22:25:17Z")
Not to imply that the good Mr. might tell an unoriginal joke, but a quick [Google search](http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=They+play+dead+at+home+and+get+killed+on+the+road#hl=en&sugexp=ldymls&xhr=t&q=%22They+play+dead+at+home+and+get+killed+on+the+road%22&cp=1&pf=p&sclient=psy&source=hp&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=%22They+play+dead+at+home+and+get+killed+on+the+road%22&pbx=1&fp=9809f9a75fc5a4aa) brings back over 28,000 results of that punchline. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/355 "2011-01-24T22:35:29Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Yep, looks like it’s also tied for the third lowest Super Line line of all time. > [NFL Super Bowl History & Betting Guide - Totals, Spreads, Lines](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/superbowl/history/) So, according to that, the undefeated 1972 Dolphins were just 1 point favorites in their Super Bowl against Washington, which seems really odd. Miami had an extremely weak schedule that year, which I assume played a role, but at first glance that Washington team just looks like a typical playoff contender, not a world-beater. The only thing I can think of is that the Redskins cruised through their first two playoff games (combined score: 42-6), while Miami played two relatively close games to get there. And what’s really weird is that the AFC Championship game that year was played \*\*[@\*\* Pittsburgh](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/197212310pit.htm). So, either the turf at the Orange Bowl spontaneously combusted two days before the game, or … yeah, Wikipedia confirms that home field advantage was determined by a yearly divisional rotation through the 1974 season. Hmm. That was pretty stupid. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/356 "2011-01-24T22:49:16Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > So, according to that, the undefeated 1972 Dolphins were just 1 point favorites in their Super Bowl against Washington, which seems really odd. Miami had an extremely weak schedule that year, which I assume played a role, but at first glance that Washington team just looks like a typical playoff contender, not a world-beater. The only thing I can think of is that the Redskins cruised through their first two playoff games (combined score: 42-6), while Miami played two relatively close games to get there. Also there had only been one AFL/AFC favorite before that, and that was Baltimore, who had moved over from the NFL to the AFC. So I think there was also a definite feeling that the AFC was just generally weaker. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/357 "2011-01-24T22:50:36Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > The guy needs to start correcting his own issues, but that he’s the 16th ranked QB on the season with both an offensive line and WR corps in the bottom 5 of the league has to be factored in. Aaron Rodgers last year with the O Line that gave up the most sacks in the league was still a top 5 QB with a QB rating above 100. I completely understand that his crappy O Line and WR crew certainly don’t help him all that much, but he’s still not shown me that he’s a great NFL quarterback. Maybe with a couple first round draft picks and a third rounder, they could have gotten a better O Line or WR crew also. > [@Omni](#): > > He’s also is a pass happy offense with a middling running game. All factors are recipes for trouble. Again, Aaron Rodgers had more attempted passes and an even worse running game, and yet he managed to be a top 3 QB this year. And there are a ton of QB’s who had more attempts this year than Cutler, including studs like Kyle Orton, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and others. One guy who had about the same number of attempts (441 to Cutlers 432), same TD/Int ration (23 TDs 15 int to Cutlers 23 TDs, 16 int) was none other than the ever studly Ryan Fitzpatrick. > [@Omni](#): > > How efficient would he be on say the Jets or Chiefs offenses? The Texans or the Giants? All more examples of how his constantly losing the PR game gets him killed in mindshare. I agree that Cutler gets screwed by the media (in part because of his own obstinence), especially on this whole knee thing. But that doesn’t make him a great QB. With his potential, and his excuses, he really needs to start producing better. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/358 "2011-01-24T23:02:38Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Aaron Rodgers last year with the O Line that gave up the most sacks in the league was still a top 5 QB with a QB rating above 100. I completely understand that his crappy O Line and WR crew certainly don’t help him all that much, but he’s still not shown me that he’s a great NFL quarterback. Maybe with a couple first round draft picks and a third rounder, they could have gotten a better O Line or WR crew also. > > Again, Aaron Rodgers had more attempted passes and an even worse running game, and yet he managed to be a top 3 QB this year. And there are a ton of QB’s who had more attempts this year than Cutler, including studs like Kyle Orton, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and others. One guy who had about the same number of attempts (441 to Cutlers 432), same TD/Int ration (23 TDs 15 int to Cutlers 23 TDs, 16 int) was none other than the ever studly Ryan Fitzpatrick. > > I agree that Cutler gets screwed by the media (in part because of his own obstinence), especially on this whole knee thing. But that doesn’t make him a great QB. With his potential, and his excuses, he really needs to start producing better. I’m pretty sure I didn’t compare Rodgers and Cutler anywhere. I’ve never said that Rodgers isn’t an elite QB and I never said Cutler was or was close to being in that elite class with Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers. He’s got the physical skills to get there, but thus far not the head or support staff. Saying Cutler can never be a franchise QB because he’s the 16th best QB in the league this year is a really thin argument though. With better WRs and a less opaque offensive scheme, maybe even the freedom to call an audible now and again, he could still be a franchise QB. It’s his 4th season and he hasn’t had any continuity or anyone to instill discipline in him thus far. It’s not too late though. You still mock the trade. Which team is in a better position right now? The Broncos with Orton, Tebow and a new head coach and a bunch of potential bust rookies or the Bears with Cutler, stability at coach and a chance to get better? Who’s gonna be better off in 3 years? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/359 "2011-01-24T23:18:56Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I’m pretty sure I didn’t compare Rodgers and Cutler anywhere. I’ve never said that Rodgers isn’t an elite QB and I never said Cutler was or was close to being in that elite class with Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers. I would actually put Roethlisberger in the elite class. Right now if I were to rank the QBs Tier One: Brady, P. Manning, Roethlisberger Tier Two: Brees, Rodgers Tier Three: Rivers, Ryan Tier Four: Vick, Sanchez, Romo, Flacco, Schaub, Cutler Tier Five: Freeman, E. Manning, Cassell TBD: Bradford, Stafford ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2011, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478/360 "2011-01-24T23:22:47Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I’m pretty sure I didn’t compare Rodgers and Cutler anywhere. I’ve never said that Rodgers isn’t an elite QB and I never said Cutler was or was close to being in that elite class with Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers. He’s got the physical skills to get there, but thus far not the head or support staff. It appeared you were giving reasons why Cutler’s ranking didn’t reflect his abilities or value. I simply questioned the extent of those excuses. > [@Omni](#): > > Saying Cutler can never be a franchise QB because he’s the 16th best QB in the league this year is a really thin argument though. Cutler is, nearly by definition, a franchise QB. The Bears gave up 2 first rounders, a third rounder, and Orton for him, they’re paying him a ton of money (he was the second highest paid QB in 2009), and there’s nothing but garbage and hopes behind him on the depth chart, so he is the Bears’ franchise quarterback. The issue isn’t that he’s a franchise QB, he is. The issue is how good is he? > [@Omni](#): > > With better WRs and a less opaque offensive scheme, maybe even the freedom to call an audible now and again, he could still be a franchise QB. It’s his 4th season and he hasn’t had any continuity or anyone to instill discipline in him thus far. It’s not too late though. Of course it’s not too late, he could easily develop into a top 10 QB in the future. But I haven’t seen it yet. > [@Omni](#): > > You still mock the trade. Which team is in a better position right now? The Broncos with Orton, Tebow and a new head coach and a bunch of potential bust rookies or the Bears with Cutler, stability at coach and a chance to get better? Who’s gonna be better off in 3 years? The Broncos sucking on defense doesn’t, to me, have a whole lot to do with judging the trade. Orton outperformed (statistically at least) Cutler both last year AND this year, and there’s 2 first round draft picks. How’d that O Line look with Maurkerice Pouncey and Mike Iupati? Or those WR’s with Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Austin Collie, or Jeremy Maclin? It may end up that Cutler will prove to be worth giving up a higher rated QB two years straight, and the draft picks. That’s what the Bears were banking on after all. The jury is still out, but I wouldn’t be to heartened by the early results. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/packers-v-bears-nfc-championship-game/568478.md?page=19)