# PALIN: The Reagan Effect? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 30, 2008, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237 "2008-10-30T12:08:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/41 "2008-10-31T13:07:14Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Reagan was swept into office by the rising tide of an [ideological conservative movement,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=9423088&highlight=foreigner#post9423088) which was a coalition of several different factions burying their differences to acheive common goals. That tide is receding, that coalition is beginning to fragment. [The future – at least, the near future – belongs to the liberals](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=426042) – not because of any momentary fashion or pendulum-swing but because of deep-seated and permanent cultural and demographic shifts. Someone like Palin will never be POTUS in our lifetimes. Do you not see how arrogant that makes you sound? Look, politicians can come back from a defeat and win. Nixon did, Reagan did, Gore did (though not in 2000 or after; I’m talking about running in '88 and being Clinton’s running mate in '92 and '96.). Don’t write her off before _this_ election is even over. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/42 "2008-10-31T13:10:41Z")
> [@Carson\_O\_Genic](#): > > Palin is getting slammed by intellectuals in her own party and your silent majority types are listening. SOMEbody in her party is hailing her as the second Coming of Christ or Reagan or some deity. I’m not just making up her popularity among a large fraction of Repubicans, am I? Whatever size that fraction is of voters who are swooning for Palin right now (and I’m guessing 30, 40, maybe 50% of all voters who will vote for McCain/Palin this year), it’s got to be comparable to those Pubbies who were early Reagannauts. And what I’m asking is: What, as a liberal, am I risking by encouraging Pubbies to go as far in her direction as they like? A disaster for the Repubican party as we know it, years of wandering around in the desert of hopelessly lost elections? Or a President Palin emerging as the end result? I’ve laughed too soon once before, with Reagan, and I don’t look forward to the same phenomenon again. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/43 "2008-10-31T13:15:53Z")
> [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > You say that like it’s a bad thing. Surely it would be a good thing if she was more like Reagan? Particularly in the area of ineligibility for the position of Vice President? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/44 "2008-10-31T13:16:35Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > SOMEbody in her party is hailing her as the second Coming of Christ or Reagan or some deity. I’m not just making up her popularity among a large fraction of Repubicans, am I? No, but remember that earlier in 2008 there were Republicans who viewed Fred Thompson as the coming savior. The fringe Republicans always seem to have a “look, this guy’s coming to save us!” mentality. Then it switches to the next person, and the next, and the next. Palin peaked too soon with those people. By 2012, there will have been another dozen saviors trumpeted by the Freepers of the world. At least, that’s my read on the topic. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/45 "2008-10-31T13:58:08Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > The fringe Republicans always seem to have a “look, this guy’s coming to save us!” mentality. Then it switches to the next person, and the next, and the next. Palin peaked too soon with those people. By 2012, there will have been another dozen saviors trumpeted by the Freepers of the world. I wonder if they’ll be suffering from Messiah overload when Jesus finally shows up. ---
**Author:** ![Carson\_O\_Genic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cdc98d/32.png) [@Carson\_O\_Genic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carson_O_Genic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2008, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/46 "2008-10-31T15:11:37Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > SOMEbody in her party is hailing her as the second Coming of Christ or Reagan or some deity. I’m not just making up her popularity among a large fraction of Repubicans, am I? > > Whatever size that fraction is of voters who are swooning for Palin right now (and I’m guessing 30, 40, maybe 50% of all voters who will vote for McCain/Palin this year), it’s got to be comparable to those Pubbies who were early Reagannauts. And what I’m asking is: What, as a liberal, am I risking by encouraging Pubbies to go as far in her direction as they like? A disaster for the Repubican party as we know it, years of wandering around in the desert of hopelessly lost elections? Or a President Palin emerging as the end result? I’ve laughed too soon once before, with Reagan, and I don’t look forward to the same phenomenon again. ``` The thing with Reagan was he had wide appeal, across conservative ranks and resonating with some Dems, and I don't see that with her. No, you're not making up her popularity, but IMO you're over rating it. Even if McC wins this election, there are already acknowledged cracks in the GOP, and any serious minded souls are going to work on a fix, a re-grouping, time in the wilderness, whatever. I've heard it said that Reagan, though not knowing details of particular things, surrounded himself with people who did, and let them run with it. It appears that Palin's office holding has been staffed with cronies from high school and yes men in fear of losing their jobs, so there's no equivalence there. ``` ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/47 "2008-11-01T08:59:06Z")
> [@Burton](#): > > My hope is also that the social conservatives wither away to insignificance. The GOP needs to dump them and try to become a reasonable alternative for conservative Democrats and independents. I’d settle for the social conservatives telling the fiscal conservatives where to get off, & retooling the GOP into an authoritarian, Christian, welfare state party. That wish seems unlikely in the near term because the social conservatives _are_ fiscal conservatives. Maybe your hope is also doomed, if the fiscal conservatives _are_ social conservatives. It makes a sick kind of sense if they in fact aren’t driven by Christianity but by opposition to any change from the familiar social (dis)order. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/48 "2008-11-01T09:28:28Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > I’d settle for the social conservatives telling the fiscal conservatives where to get off, & retooling the GOP into an authoritarian, Christian, welfare state party. See, this is the scary part to me–I think an authoritarian Christian Party could get itself elected in this country. “welfare state”?? ---
**Author:** ![BJMoose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/5fc32e/32.png) [@BJMoose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BJMoose)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/49 "2008-11-01T15:40:26Z")
> [@Burton](#): > > My hope is also that the social conservatives wither away to insignificance. The GOP needs to dump them and try to become a reasonable alternative for conservative Democrats and independents. Not bloody well likely. The conventional wisdom has been that the Reagan Revolution was made possible by outfits like the Moral Majority convincing nominally Democratic working-class religious conservatives that they really should vote Republican. Hell, this is why McCain picked Palin to “balance the ticket”; _the only reason_. (Personally, I think Reagan’s victory was more a combination of a shitty economy, the Ayatolla Khomeni, and Jimmy Carter’s apparent inability to see the forest for the trees. And the presence of John Anderson in the race made the electoral college count look like a landslide. But old myths die hard.) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/50 "2008-11-01T19:27:47Z")
> [@Captain\_Carrot](#): > > Do you not see how arrogant that makes you sound? Look, politicians can come back from a defeat and win. Nixon did, Reagan did, Gore did (though not in 2000 or after; I’m talking about running in '88 and being Clinton’s running mate in '92 and '96.). Don’t write her off before _this_ election is even over. I was not just writing off Palin herself, I was writing off her political tendency (and she is now too famous ever to re-invent herself in that regard). The ideological conservative movement is not going away, it is too well-established with its grassroots organizations and its astroturf organizations and its think-tanks and its wholly owned media outlets and the usually reliable backing of the business class. But from now on it will be on a very slow (generational-time-scale slow) and steady electoral decline. And I also predict the various factions within it – paleocons, neocons, theocons, bizcons, libertarians – will find it increasingly harder to work together. ---
**Author:** ![slitterst](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecc23a/32.png) [@slitterst](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slitterst)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2008, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237/51 "2008-11-01T20:21:08Z")
> [@C\_K\_Dexter\_Haven](#): > > And the 2012 election will probably be a write-off candidate anyway, assuming Obama maintains some popularity, it’s hard to unseat an incumbent. Hard, but not unheard of. I would remind you of the 1976, 1980, and 1992 elections. And some analysts suggest Johnson would have lost in 1968 if he’d run. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palin-the-reagan-effect/470237.md?page=2)