# Palin's political future **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 9, 2008, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176 "2008-10-09T16:02:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/41 "2008-10-09T20:24:46Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Palin has plenty of time. She’s laying down a marker, little more. Obama will win and absent a Democrat Disaster she’ll be perfectly positioned to fight his putative successor in 2016. How did that work out for Dan Quayle? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/42 "2008-10-09T20:24:46Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I remember reading an editorial or blog that suggested that Republican voters have a tendency toward heroes of the week–very vocal, very enthusiastic fandoms that have extremely short shelf-lives. Eh, maybe. I think Fred Thompson’s performance was very similar to Gen. Wesley Clark’s: some people were sure he’d be very impressive based on his resume alone and they managed to “draft” him, but then he didn’t know what to do and ran a bad campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Kalhoun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/3bc359/32.png) [@Kalhoun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kalhoun)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/43 "2008-10-09T20:27:22Z")
Pat Fucking Buchanan is positively enamored with her. He thinks this is the beginning of a big illustrious career in Washington DC. Unfortunately I can actually picture this happening. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/44 "2008-10-09T20:34:00Z")
> [@vison](#): > > I have this fond dream, sort of a non-narcotic opium reverie wherein, after 8 years of decent government under Pres. Obama, the far-right religious-loony sorts of sorta, you know, have lumbered into the wilderness and crupt back into the near-oblivion they deserve. They will be ignored by future candidates for the Presidency. > > Then, just before I really do depart for that bourne at present unknown, an avowed Agnostic woman runs for POTUS and wins. The repubs have left a mess that may be unfixable. I do not see how it can be salvaged in 4 years. Winning this time is more like a sentence than a victory. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/45 "2008-10-09T20:37:53Z")
If she can build a base of knowledge and experience, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her take a serious shot at President in 8 or 12 years. Continue as governor, try to nab the Senate seat from Begich in 2014 (or even better, inherit it from Stevens, but it’s appearing unlikely that he’ll win), use her 15 minutes of fame to network and connect with national players, effectively campaign like crazy for Republicans across the nation so she’s got some favors to call in, and so on. I don’t think her having a bright future is completely out of the question. She just got called up from the minors too soon, that’s all. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/46 "2008-10-09T20:40:42Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Palin has plenty of time. She’s laying down a marker, little more. Obama will win and absent a Democrat Disaster she’ll be perfectly positioned to fight his putative successor in 2016. She’ll be in her early 50s then, so she won’t have that MILF / sexy librarian factor going for her as much. Which means that’s she’d have to a) get substantive and b) get smart. Unless she quits her day job to take time to study up on the real world and gets her head out of her own ass, I don’t see that happening. ---
**Author:** ![TV\_time](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f17d59/32.png) [@TV\_time](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TV_time)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/47 "2008-10-09T20:49:49Z")
I do think there is something Qualesque about Palin. He was solidly defended by the “base” of the party for defending the “right” values. He was also found to be cute and charming and of course, error prone. > [@Mighty\_Girl](#): > > Even so, when was the last time a defeated candidate came back and successfully ran again? Not the last time, Nixon has already been mentioned, but John Kennedy comes to mind. I seem to remember him on Adli Stevenson’s ticket as VP. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/48 "2008-10-09T20:57:07Z")
> [@TV\_time](#): > > I do think there is something Qualesque about Palin. He was solidly defended by the “base” of the party for defending the “right” values. He was also found to be cute and charming and of course, error prone. > > Not the last time, Nixon has already been mentioned, but John Kennedy comes to mind. I seem to remember him on Adli Stevenson’s ticket as VP. He campaigned for it, (behind the scenes) but Estes Kefauver was the Dem VP nominee in 1956. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/49 "2008-10-09T20:57:33Z")
She has embarrassed herself, the party, the presidential nominee, and all but the most mule-headed and delusional of those who initially cheered her arrival on the scene. She will never again get either spot on the GOP presidential ticket. There’s an old saying in Alaska - I know it’s in California, it’s probably in Alaska - that says, “Fool me once… shame on… shame on you… fool me, we can’t get fooled again.” I can see Sarah Baracuda going back to a big fish in her small pond, or perhaps becoming a fringe pundit and gadfly, sort of a 21st-century Phyllis Schlafly. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/50 "2008-10-09T21:00:39Z")
> [@TWDuke](#): > > …or perhaps becoming a fringe pundit and gadfly, sort of a 21st-century Phyllis Schlafly. Dingdingding! We may have a winner! ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/51 "2008-10-09T21:00:49Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Walter Mondale lost as Vice President in 1980 and came back to run for President in 1984. Of course, Mondale had his VP experience from 1976-1980 as well as his time in the Senate. I could see Palin going back to Alaska and remaining governor. After that, probably some position with an oil company. If trends continue as they are, I don’t think anyone from the McCain/Palin campaign will have a future in national Republican politics. I’d see 2008 as the GOP’s Dukakis election. They’re going to look for someone brand new in 2012. Few candidates ever loss by as large a degree as Mondale. That was a huge slaughter. Even McGovern did not lose by as much. You have to go back to 1936 and Alfred M. Landon losing to FDR for a worse defeat than Mondale’s. > [@gurujulp](#): > > I think that when Ted Stevens gets the axe she will appoint herself or run for his senate spot… > > How would that work? The governor would be responsible for the appointment, right? Could she appoint herself? I could see her running for Senate, but I actually think Stevens will sadly get off with little more than a wrist slap and get re-elected by Alaska. > [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I would love for her to run for National office later just to see how the Republicans attack her. Or maybe she can re-start the [Bull Moose Party](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull_Moose_Party) and run as a [Maverick](http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u51/vkr_bibin/Maverick%20Almudena/Maverick_Almudena_8_vkr-actress.jpg). Never the Bull Moose Party. She is so far from Teddy that it is scary. > [@burundi](#): > > If Mike Huckabee, a Christian conservative who _doesn’t_ scare people, couldn’t win the primary this time, I don’t think Palin has a prayer in 2012. Sure, she has a very dedicated fan base. But I think that more independents and moderate Republicans are put off by her than fond of her. It also sounds like she’s done a good job of burning her bridges in Alaska. I think Huckabee was more appealing to those that did not share his values. He was a nicer guy and comes across more intelligent. He also had a nearly popularist platform as opposed to a support the rich platform. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/52 "2008-10-09T22:07:05Z")
Guys, I think you’re looking at Palin through azure-tinted glasses. She has energised the Republican base. She has significantly delayed McCain’s slide. For all her hockey-mom looks, she would not have got so far if she were not a savvy operator. These are all political positives. Comparisons with Quayle are disingenuous: he had been VP and had a history of gaffes. Give her experience of the Big Game and she’ll be very dangerous. Absent Obama doing a Carter, Obama will be a lock for 2012, so 2016 will be her next main chance. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/53 "2008-10-09T22:08:15Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > She’ll be in her early 50s then, so she won’t have that MILF / sexy librarian factor going for her as much. By then she might have a lock on that GILF thing, though. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/54 "2008-10-09T22:21:01Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Guys, I think you’re looking at Palin through azure-tinted glasses. She has energised the Republican base. She has significantly delayed McCain’s slide. For all her hockey-mom looks, she would not have got so far if she were not a savvy operator. These are all political positives. Comparisons with Quayle are disingenuous: he had been VP and had a history of gaffes. Give her experience of the Big Game and she’ll be very dangerous. Absent Obama doing a Carter, Obama will be a lock for 2012, so 2016 will be her next main chance. I disagree, she gave McCain a surge and brought out the religious right for the campaign, but she has helped independents decide on Obama. The more she talk, the more Obama gained and then of course the economy tanking gave him a big surge. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/55 "2008-10-09T22:45:20Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Guys, I think you’re looking at Palin through azure-tinted glasses. She has energised the Republican base. And completely repulsed everyone outside of it. > [@](#): > > She has significantly delayed McCain’s slide. This is not remotely true. Obama now has a double digit lead in The Gallup poll, and part of that is directly attributable to the Couric interview. She has actaully cost McCain support, not added to it. > [@](#): > > For all her hockey-mom looks, she would not have got so far if she were not a savvy operator. These are all political positives. Comparisons with Quayle are disingenuous: he had been VP and had a history of gaffes. Give her experience of the Big Game and she’ll be very dangerous. Absent Obama doing a Carter, Obama will be a lock for 2012, so 2016 will be her next main chance. If she tries at all, it will be in 2012, but she will not be successful. She has a very narrow range of appeal among voters. Her image outside her base has already all but solidified as a dimwit and a social extremist. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/56 "2008-10-09T22:52:01Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > …She has a very narrow range of appeal among voters. Her image outside her base has already all but solidified as a dimwit and a social extremist. That pretty much says it all. Sarah’s done. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/57 "2008-10-09T22:52:56Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > If she tries at all, it will be in 2012, but she will not be successful. She has a very narrow range of appeal among voters. Her image outside her base has already all but solidified as a dimwit and a social extremist. Also, the usual in-the-tank media outlets won’t be in the tank for her against other Republicans in the primaries – and I expect Romney at least and possibly a few others to be back for another go at it. Thus, she won’t have her usual shielding against media scrutiny, and I really don’t see her making the effort that would be necessary to correct her ignorance and mental laziness over the next four years. ---
**Author:** ![pepperlandgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f17d59/32.png) [@pepperlandgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pepperlandgirl)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/58 "2008-10-09T22:54:32Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Guys, I think you’re looking at Palin through azure-tinted glasses. She has energised the Republican base. She has significantly delayed McCain’s slide. For all her hockey-mom looks, she would not have got so far if she were not a savvy operator. These are all political positives. Comparisons with Quayle are disingenuous: he had been VP and had a history of gaffes. Give her experience of the Big Game and she’ll be very dangerous. Absent Obama doing a Carter, Obama will be a lock for 2012, so 2016 will be her next main chance. Wait. This is what McCain’s campaign looks like _after_ the bleeding as stopped? Every single national poll has Obama up. [www.fivethirtyeight.com](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) and [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) both have Obama with over 300 electoral votes. What would it look like if she hadn’t “significantly delayed McCain’s” slide? Would he just be holding on to Utah and Arizona? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/59 "2008-10-09T23:41:02Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Guys, I think you’re looking at Palin through azure-tinted glasses. She has energised the Republican base. She has significantly delayed McCain’s slide. For all her hockey-mom looks, she would not have got so far if she were not a savvy operator. These are all political positives. Comparisons with Quayle are disingenuous: he had been VP and had a history of gaffes. Give her experience of the Big Game and she’ll be very dangerous. Absent Obama doing a Carter, Obama will be a lock for 2012, so 2016 will be her next main chance. Don’t think so. From [the AP poll, October 1.](http://www.examiner.com/a-1617362~AP_Poll__Obama_takes_a_7_point_lead_over_McCain.html?cid=temp-popular) > [@](#): > > Adding to McCain’s woes, just 25 percent of likely voters say Palin has the right experience to be president if needed, a huge drop from 41 percent in the previous poll last month. She posted an enormous loss in confidence among Republicans; three in four had called her experienced enough before, but not even half say that now. That only half the Republicans think she’s ready to be president can’t be helping. It doesn’t say what percent of their sample is Republicans, but given that the support in the independent and Dem columns must be in the single digit range. McCain needed independents to win. Palin hurt him with them. I think when all is over her choice (his fault) and the market (not his fault) will be what did him in. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2008, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/60 "2008-10-09T23:48:47Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I disagree, she gave McCain a surge and brought out the religious right for the campaign, but she has helped independents decide on Obama. Now that’s an interesting claim. Can we have some cites, please? > [@](#): > > and then of course the economy tanking gave him a big surge. Agreed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176.md?page=4)