# Palin's political future **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 9, 2008, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176 "2008-10-09T16:02:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/101 "2008-10-12T01:39:50Z")
She would get a Pat Buchanan’s or a Newt Gingrich’s or a Tom Delay’s 20% share of the GOP primary vote. As was the case with Buchanan in '96, with an early crowded field, that might be enough to pick up an early primary, but her support wouldn’t grow larger than that. After McCain loses, if everything stays the same, you will see high profile Republicans turning their backs on Palin in droves… ---
**Author:** ![leander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/bcef8e/32.png) [@leander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leander)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/102 "2008-10-12T01:50:47Z")
> [@Paul in Saudi](#): > > We were finishing the (Stawberry!) wine with a very nice pork roast and politics came up. > > Could Sarah Palin be looking towards establishing a national reputation and base for a possible '12 presidental run of her own? It does seem many established names will be out of such a race (if only due to age). A new generation of Republicans may get their chance. > > I wonder if SP is no operating on her own for her own goals? > > You thoughts? She may be looking towards a run in 2012, but she will be decimated by the other candidates in her party. She is barely able to keep things together for a 6 week run at VP; how do you think she’ll fair at multiple debates across many, many months? PS - You should change your username to Paul in MD! 🙂 (Do they even have Strawberry wine in Saudi?) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/103 "2008-10-12T01:53:31Z")
Remember when Dan Quayle announced he was thinking about running for President in 2000? That’s the kind of response that a future Palin presidential run will get - and that’s assuming McCain pulls a rabbit out of the hat and gets elected. ---
**Author:** ![Peanut\_Gallery](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/838e76/32.png) [@Peanut\_Gallery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peanut_Gallery)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/104 "2008-10-12T02:10:52Z")
I wouldn’t be surprised if she ran. She thinks she is cool enough now. She will only think that much more of herself by then. Especially now that she has a national cult. But I’m betting she’ll either remain Gov. of AK, or become a Fox News correspondent by 2012. ---
**Author:** ![JonScribe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3be4f8/32.png) [@JonScribe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JonScribe)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/105 "2008-10-12T02:12:53Z")
She’d get about as far in the Republican primaries as a strawberry wine would in a Wine Spectator judging. ---
**Author:** ![vison](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/e47774/32.png) [@vison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vison)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/106 "2008-10-12T02:16:00Z")
I think her fan base is too small. Regular, normal people aren’t really in love with her. Just the nutbars, is the way it looks from here. If she gave up being a fundy, maybe. But then, her cult would be cheezed off and she’d be back at square one. I have this theory that after 8 years of a sensible man such as President Obama the US will be so much of a better place that pink fluffy unicorn bunnies will be teaching Evolution in Sunday Schools. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/107 "2008-10-12T02:24:37Z")
Merged a newer “Palin 2012?” thread into this one. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/108 "2008-10-12T02:41:08Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I think Palin will be the Republican nominee for President in 2012. God, I hope so! ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/109 "2008-10-12T02:41:42Z")
I’m sure she’ll try in '12. She doesn’t seem to have a realistic view of her abilities, and, surrounded by supporters, she’ll think everyone loves her. I wonder how much of the current bigotry meltdown is due to her. If McCain gets trounced, and the exit polls show lots of people abandoned him because of the hate, they’ll blame her. I think McCain and the Rovians really deserve the blame, but the wagons of the insiders will pull into a circle and blame it on the outsider. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/110 "2008-10-12T02:42:32Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Remember when Dan Quayle announced he was thinking about running for President in 2000? That’s the kind of response that a future Palin presidential run will get - and that’s assuming McCain pulls a rabbit out of the hat and gets elected. I don’t remember THAT-what happened? ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/111 "2008-10-12T02:45:23Z")
I’m thinking she will fade away into obscurity, just like another VP candidate to a Republican from Arizona who got blown out in an election. > **[William E. Miller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_E._Miller)** > > William Edward Miller (March 22, 1914 – June 24, 1983) was an American politician who served in the United States House of Representatives from New York as a Republican. During the 1964 presidential election, he was the Republican nominee for vice president, the first Catholic nominated for the office by the Republican Party. > A native of Lockport, New York, Miller graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 1935, and from Albany Law School in 1938, afterwards becoming an attorney in Lockport.... ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/112 "2008-10-12T02:45:45Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > She would get a Pat Buchanan’s or a Newt Gingrich’s or a Tom Delay’s 20% share of the GOP primary vote. As was the case with Buchanan in '96, with an early crowded field, that might be enough to pick up an early primary, but her support wouldn’t grow larger than that. > > After McCain loses, if everything stays the same, you will see high profile Republicans turning their backs on Palin in droves.. I respectfully disagree. Never underestimate the resolve of true believers. Palin has tapped into something deep and dangerous in the GOP base. They believe in her. She’s given voice to their fears and hatred. She’s their advocate and is (ostensibly) one of them. They won’t let her sink into obscurity, which works right into her ambitions. Even if Obama wins, Palin will continue to stoke the flames of dissent and discord, just as she will continue to build a following. The bandaid has been ripped off the sore, and the ugly puss of unrepentent bigotry now on display is oozing out. For those who will believe an Obama presidency is tantamount to the destruction of America as they know it, Palin will be their beacon. I predict we’ll be seeing and hearing quite a bit from Palin after the election, goodness help us. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/113 "2008-10-12T02:47:50Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > I don’t remember THAT-what happened? Can’t you guess? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/114 "2008-10-12T03:32:02Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I think Palin will be the Republican nominee for President in 2012. I agree. They have nobody else. It is easy to dismiss her until you see her followers . They booed McCain because he was not the star and he was off message. She has developed a very strong group of followers. Their fervor is scary. Many see the slate like she does Palin/McCain. ---
**Author:** ![FriarTed](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/friarted/32/1052_2.png) [@FriarTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FriarTed)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/115 "2008-10-12T12:40:35Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > I don’t remember THAT-what happened? Not even the fervent Kool-Aid fanbase that fiercely defended VP Quayle showed up for that. DQ was a decent capable Jr Senator when picked as VP. Even Ted Kennedy had praise for him. Then DQ was thrown into way-too-deep water & never regained his footing during Dad Bush’s term. IF he had come out to write some substantive policy papers, or a conservative manifesto, and perhaps had run for Governor of Indiana or even retried for Senate, he may have had a chance to rebuild his reputation. Instead, he wrote a perceived-as-whiney memoir & faded out of public view until his attempt to get a Presidential nomination. Apparently, he actually did write a couple of policy books & considered running for Gov of Indiana in the 1990s, I just saw on wikipedia. But politically, he just had no relevance any more. ---
**Author:** ![Peanut\_Gallery](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/838e76/32.png) [@Peanut\_Gallery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peanut_Gallery)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/116 "2008-10-12T13:48:38Z")
> [@FriarTed](#): > > IF he had come out to . . . or even retried for Senate, he may have had a chance to rebuild his reputation. Instead, he wrote a perceived-as-whiney memoir & faded out of public view until his attempt to get a Presidential nomination. And wasn’t that something when the National Enquirer caught him with that lady at the … oh wait … I’m confused. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/117 "2008-10-12T14:48:46Z")
> [@](#): > > I don’t remember THAT-what happened? Quayle like Palin was an electoral gimmick. They were picked to cover a demographic vulnerability in the real candidate’s campaign. After the election, Quayle was ignored as Palin will be. When Quayle tried to step out on his own later on, he was dismissed as someone who had no real base and no credibility as a stand-alone candidate. I predict the same will happen to Palin if she tries a Presidential run in the future. ---
**Author:** ![Merhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5a626/32.png) [@Merhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merhouse)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/118 "2008-10-12T16:55:32Z")
Palin will become the Secretary of Defense of the Queendom of Wasilla because she will be able to keep her eyes on Russia from the Castle. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2008, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/119 "2008-10-12T19:46:41Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > I don’t remember THAT-what happened? exactly, his trying to announce a run was so memorable, that 99.9 percent of people didn’t know he tried! a lead ballon floated better. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2008, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176/120 "2008-10-13T02:15:43Z")
Here is a particularly insightful\* diary that looks at losing VP candidates for the past 60 years and how often they ended up winning the nomination during the next election. Conclusion: Palin’s chances of being the Republican nominee in 2012 are between slim and none. [http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/93031/107/316/628208](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/93031/107/316/628208) - I know this to be true because I wrote it. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/palins-political-future/467176.md?page=7)