# Paris is Burning
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [November 14, 2015, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523 "2015-11-14T03:02:36Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/1 "2015-11-14T03:02:36Z")
Anyone watching the [news](http://news.yahoo.com/live-blog-fatalities-reported-after-explosion-shootout-in-paris-214128710.html?nf=1) tonight is probably shocked by this highly sophisticated attack in Paris, killing over 100 people. France has closed it borders. This is apparently the worst attack in France since WWII.
As the story develops, and more info is available, how will this affect France’s participation in the Syrian Civil War? With the attacks yesterday in Lebanon, are we seeing a new wave of increased attacks outside Iraq and Syria?
I’s still processing all of this, but figured we need a thread to discuss all that happened and what might come of it.
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### Author:  [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/2 "2015-11-14T03:19:15Z")
Scary. Depressing.
A CBS security consultant (“talking head”) offered hope for the hostage situation to be resolved peacefully. (Former FBI hostage negotiator.)
He said that there are two kinds of hostage situations: the ones where it’s planned, and killing hostages is part of the strategy from the start. Those kinds usually end in a raid where some hostages (and all the terrorists) are killed.
But some hostage situations sort of come about by a blunder, where the terrorists sieze hostages to use as bargaining chips to keep themselves alive. Those kind are very often negotiated out and result in few deaths, often none.
(Interview on CBS, and also on KNX, a Los Angeles CBS affiliate.)
Holding out hope…
They said this was the first mandatory curfew in Paris since 1944…
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### Author:  [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/3 "2015-11-14T03:20:56Z")
Some French people are now probably thinking that this is a full-scale shooting war at home for the first time since World War II. They have suffered waves of terrorist attacks before, but nothing remotely like this scale of violence.
How the French people will react is anyone’s guess. Marie le Pen’s National Front seems likely to grow in popularity, as the two major parties will be seen as weak and unable to protect France. Whether there will also be a demand for a greater military effort against ISIS remains to be seen.
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### Author:  [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/4 "2015-11-14T03:33:32Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> As the story develops, and more info is available, how will this affect France’s participation in the Syrian Civil War?
I doubt it changes much. They had already recently ramped up French participation in Iraq/Syria, but I understand that the French army is already overextending itself, in particular due to the operations in Africa.
I believe that only about 10 000 military can be supported in active operations abroad in normal time and a quick check on the French ministry of Defense website indicates that there are already 7 000 engaged at the moment (about 5 000 in the Sahel and 2 000 in or around Irak).
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### Author:  [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/5 "2015-11-14T04:02:20Z")
France could build a larger military, of course. I doubt they will, though. At the moment, President Hollande is talking tough about war “without pity”. But France for decades has maintained only a small military, capable of minor roles in Yugoslavia and Iraq and Afghanistan, but never of being a world power. The French voters have gotten used to spending government money on their own luxurious living rather than national defense, always assuming that if the worst happened, the USA would do the biggest share of the fighting. Today’s events may rouse the French to an effort for national defense, but my money is not on that outcome.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/6 "2015-11-14T04:20:27Z")
How did you gain this insight into the minds of French voters?
France has a large armed forces, actually, well funded and highly capable of defending itself, and in the last decade has been reforming itself to be even more capable of fighting abroad, especially against the Islamist threat.
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### Author:  [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/7 "2015-11-14T04:21:08Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#):
>
> The French voters have gotten used to spending government money on their own luxurious living rather than national defense, always assuming that if the worst happened, the USA would do the biggest share of the fighting.
I don’t really think the French are capable of the stringent self-sacrifice Americans go through every day for strength and honour. Americans will endure giving up automobiles, consumerism, all luxury, and eating out, to live for endless years like sewer rats in a Vietnamese ability to conquer their foes.
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### Author:  [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/8 "2015-11-14T04:26:33Z")
Anything but a tax increase, it seems…
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### Author:  [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/9 "2015-11-14T04:35:43Z")
Sad news.
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### Author:  [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/10 "2015-11-14T04:38:09Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#):
>
> The French voters have gotten used to spending government money on their own luxurious living rather than national defense, always assuming that if the worst happened, the USA would do the biggest share of the fighting.
> [@RickJay](#):
>
> France has a large armed forces, actually, well funded and highly capable of defending itself, and in the last decade has been reforming itself to be even more capable of fighting abroad, especially against the Islamist threat.
#6 in the world by military expenditure in $$ and #9 in terms of % of GDP, #9 in $ per capita. They’re not exactly shrinking violets.
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### Author:  [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/11 "2015-11-14T05:14:50Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#):
>
> #6 in the world by military expenditure in $$ and #9 in terms of % of GDP, #9 in $ per capita. They’re not exactly shrinking violets.
Don’t forget the French Foreign Legion, which while comparatively small, has a well deserved reputation for kicking ass.
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### Author:  [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/12 "2015-11-14T05:22:18Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#):
>
> #6 in the world by military expenditure in $$ and #9 in terms of % of GDP, #9 in $ per capita. They’re not exactly shrinking violets.
This here:
> **[World Bank Open Data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS)**
>
> Free and open access to global development data
Says that France spends 2.2% of GDP on its military. Not too low, but not #9 in the world. If the figures **clairobscur** gave are true, they don’t have many additional troops they could send at the moment.
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### Author:  [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/13 "2015-11-14T05:49:22Z")
This is the sort of event that might sponsor a new wave of volunteers to enlist.
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### Author:  [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/14 "2015-11-14T05:54:44Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#):
>
> If the figures **clairobscur** gave are true, they don’t have many additional troops they could send at the moment.
Even if clairobscur’s figures are true that is probably only what can be supported overseas with their own logistics stream. If US / Allied forces are providing help with logistics theres no reason they couldn’t send a lot more, they have over 200,000 active in the French Armed Forces.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/15 "2015-11-14T05:56:14Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#):
>
> This here:
>
> [Military expenditure (% of GDP) | Data](http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS)
>
> Says that France spends 2.2% of GDP on its military. Not too low, but not #9 in the world. If the figures **clairobscur** gave are true, they don’t have many additional troops they could send at the moment.
But still 6th in the world on straight dollars. Is it really so hard to walk back your comment that they are a bunch of luxury lovers waiting for America to come protect them? I mean it was ignorant and offensive.
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/16 "2015-11-14T06:02:57Z")
> [@clairobscur](#):
>
> I doubt it changes much. They had already recently ramped up French participation in Iraq/Syria, but I understand that the French army is already overextending itself, in particular due to the operations in Africa.
Strange that you assumed I meant it would cause them to want to ramp up. I was thinking it might cause them to want to get out!
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### Author:  [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/17 "2015-11-14T06:04:22Z")
For all the joking we do about France and surrendering and all that, the French are capable fighters with decent equipment and have been pretty ferocious when they had to be. The problem is that the targets for French retaliation are not obvious.
A more interesting question is how this is going to change the situation regarding mass emigration into Europe, which has already caused a lot of political blowback against leaders in the EU.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/18 "2015-11-14T06:05:53Z")
Sadly the attacks will likely achieve their objectives. It is highly likely that broad anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant sentiment and actions will increase which will result in a [marginalized subset of French Muslims](http://theweek.com/articles/535096/frances-alienated-muslims)becoming radicalized. France is 7.5% Muslim (compare to 0.8% in the United Staes).
It will also impact how EU nations deal with the refugee crisis and having that become a greater crisis also serves the interest of the radical Islamist movements.
How do you fight this? What does an actual effective response look like?
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### Author:  [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/19 "2015-11-14T06:06:01Z")
[QUOTE=CarnalK]
But still 6th in the world on straight dollars. Is it really so hard to walk back your comment that they are a bunch of luxury lovers waiting for America to come protect them? I mean it was ignorant and offensive.
[/QUOTE]
Plus they wear scent, and wave their hands affectedly when they lisp.
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### Author:  [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2015, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paris-is-burning/737523/20 "2015-11-14T06:20:07Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#):
>
> Says that France spends 2.2% of GDP on its military.
Yes, my mistake. I was looking a a list of top spenders rather than a list of all the world’s countries. Mea culpa.
Still, I think the point still stands. France is not really underspending on their military, if anything they are in the top tier. And considering their heavy involvement in Africa in particular, they are far more interventionist internationally than most.
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