# Pascal's Wager **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 29, 2010, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323 "2010-11-29T20:50:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2010, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/521 "2010-12-26T22:54:41Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. Diogenes: Of course all cultures have myths. Please, however, show one culture who believed in a nationally experienced, heavily commemorated myth. One would suffice. Even if such a phenomenon was unique, it wouldn’t be proof of anything, but just to name one other ancient example - Rome. ---
**Author:** ![x-ray\_vision](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/x-ray_vision/32/351_2.png) [@x-ray\_vision](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/x-ray_vision)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2010, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/522 "2010-12-26T23:14:43Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. X-ray: Allah commands that we believe in him. He also commands that we visit meccah. He predicts that if we ignore his commands we will burn, for each violation. Should we not at least visit mecca? You’re still not answering my question. You’re not interested in finding out if Pascal’s Wager holds up; you’re interested in making excuses. Once you answer the question, show me where Allah says we will burn for each violation. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2010, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/523 "2010-12-27T20:29:22Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > Even if such a phenomenon was unique, it wouldn’t be proof of anything, but just to name one other ancient example - Rome. 1. If it is unique, that means that nationally-experienced, nationally-commemorated history may very well be an infallible form of evidence. It may be as reliable as if we would go back in time and witness the events with our own eyes. I agree, the evidence I am presenting MAY be fallible. But it may also be infallible. You have no right to take a position, if you can’t find one other national myth. 2. Do the Roman myths mention the number of ancestor-witnesses, and, if so, do they number in the millions – or even in the hundreds of thousands? Were they believed to have been nationally-commemorated from the time of the events – eternally binding. If not, it does not destroy the Kuzari proof. 3. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” It’s hard to disagree with them. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2010, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/524 "2010-12-27T20:33:54Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” It’s hard to disagree with them. Prettiest girl in a leper colony. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2010, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/525 "2010-12-27T20:35:52Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” It’s hard to disagree with them. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2010, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/526 "2010-12-27T20:36:58Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” It’s hard to disagree with them. That doesn’t mean what you seem to think it means. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2010, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/527 "2010-12-27T20:52:19Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. If it is unique, that means that nationally-experienced, nationally-commemorated history may very well be an infallible form of evidence. It would mean nothing, and you don’t have a “nationally experienced” experience, you have a literary origin myth with no historical evidence in its favor and quite a bit against it. > [@](#): > > 1. Do the Roman myths mention the number of ancestor-witnesses, and, if so, do they number in the millions – or even in the hundreds of thousands? Were they believed to have been nationally-commemorated from the time of the events – eternally binding. If not, it does not destroy the Kuzari proof. Anybody can make up numbers. That means nothing. You keep trying to cite belief as evidence. It isn’t. You can’t prove that anyone even _believed_ the Exodus story before the 7th Century BCE. > [@](#): > > 1. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” It’s hard to disagree with them. It’s pretty easy, actually. These must not be very bright atheists. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2010, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/528 "2010-12-27T21:44:24Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. If it is unique You’re the only one here who believes it is unique. Everybody else, I think, has long since recognized that you will do anything to exclude comparable events from this category. > [@](#): > > 1. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” Would those be the same atheists who become religious when rabbis yell at them? ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/529 "2010-12-28T18:57:40Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Cite? From personal conversation, so I don’t have a cite that atheists claim that it is the best proof. That being said, Larry Tanner, in his feeble response to the Kuzari argument, calls it “The Ultimate Proof for the Existence of God?” Ok, I admit, that he has a question-mark after that statement. Even so, it shows you how seriously he thinks the argument is. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/530 "2010-12-28T18:59:30Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > It would mean nothing, and you don’t have a “nationally experienced” experience, you have a literary origin myth with no historical evidence in its favor and quite a bit against it. > > Anybody can make up numbers. That means nothing. You keep trying to cite belief as evidence. It isn’t. You can’t prove that anyone even _believed_ the Exodus story before the 7th Century BCE. I disagree that anyone can make up numbers. Nationally believed history IS evidence. Indeed, our national belief has been that there was a temple in Jerusalem. And that turned out to be correct. So it is evidence. You claim that people will believe a false event that happened to their own ancestors, millions of their ancestors – yet you can’t show me one such case! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/531 "2010-12-28T19:01:16Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > I disagree that anyone can make up numbers. This is getting more and more ridiculous. Anyone can make anything up. > [@](#): > > Nationally believed history IS evidence. Nationally believed history is a term your source invented. Did you give any thought to my question earlier? You insist your proof is amazing, but you’re not convincing anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/532 "2010-12-28T19:04:22Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > That being said, Larry Tanner, in his feeble response to the Kuzari argument, calls it “The Ultimate Proof for the Existence of God?” > > Ok, I admit, that he has a question-mark after that statement. Even so, it shows you how seriously he thinks the argument is. He’s proposing to discuss something that he acknowledges in a headline that \*someone \*has labeled it “The Ultimate Proof …” – with a question mark to boot – and you propose that this is evidence of what _he_ thinks? In that article, he doesn’t say what he personally thinks about the Kuzari stuff; he just describes it generally. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/533 "2010-12-28T19:35:56Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > I disagree that anyone can make up numbers. You can’t be serious. Give me an example of a number that can’t be made up and explain why. How about this. I have a purple dragomn in my garage, and a TRILLION people have seen it. How’s THAT for a proof? > [@](#): > > Nationally believed history IS evidence. No, sorry, it isn’t. Beliefe is not prrof, no matter how many times you say it. > [@](#): > > Indeed, our national belief has been that there was a temple in Jerusalem. And that turned out to be correct. So it is evidence. This continues to be an asinine analogy. Just because a group believes one true thing doesn’t mean everything else they believe must be true. > [@](#): > > You claim that people will believe a false event that happened to their own ancestors, millions of their ancestors – yet you can’t show me one such case! You keep throwing around this “millions” number like it means anything. It doesn’t. The number was made up. It’s irrelevant that people believe it. That doesn’t stop it from being made up. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/534 "2010-12-28T19:46:51Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. If it is unique, that means that nationally-experienced, nationally-commemorated history may very well be an infallible form of evidence. It may be as reliable as if we would go back in time and witness the events with our own eyes. I agree, the evidence I am presenting MAY be fallible. But it may also be infallible. You have no right to take a position, if you can’t find one other national myth. > > 2. Do the Roman myths mention the number of ancestor-witnesses, and, if so, do they number in the millions – or even in the hundreds of thousands? Were they believed to have been nationally-commemorated from the time of the events – eternally binding. If not, it does not destroy the Kuzari proof. > > 3. I have even heard some atheists call the Kuzari proof the “best proof for the existence of God.” It’s hard to disagree with them. This is kind of an elaborate construction of special pleadings and irrelevant conclusions. For example, there’s a creation of some new category called “national myth,” which is defined down so that can apply only in one circumstance. And it’s all a diversion because none of this has anything to do with what constitutes evidence. Non-evidence can’t become evidence simply because it is uniquely non-evidential. ---
**Author:** ![x-ray\_vision](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/x-ray_vision/32/351_2.png) [@x-ray\_vision](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/x-ray_vision)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/535 "2010-12-28T23:00:42Z")
**abele derer** , I’m going to ask you to answer my question one more time since it’s actually on topic. You started a thread about the validity of Pascal’s Wager and I’m responding to it. How about you stop ignoring my relevant question and stop going off topic? ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/536 "2010-12-29T00:11:54Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > You can’t be serious. Give me an example of a number that can’t be made up and explain why. How about this. I have a purple dragomn in my garage, and a TRILLION people have seen it. How’s THAT for a proof? Yes, if you get americans to believe that millions of americans saw that dragon, then, AND ONLY THEN, will you have refuted Kuzari. Anyone can make anything up. The issue, of course, is whether you can get a nation to believe it. It has only happened once. Why? (BTW, the “millions” isn’t just hidden somewhere in the text; Moses is recorded as counting each of the tribes twice – which is where the Book of Numbers got its name). ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/537 "2010-12-29T00:13:06Z")
> [@x-ray\_vision](#): > > **abele derer** , I’m going to ask you to answer my question one more time since it’s actually on topic. You started a thread about the validity of Pascal’s Wager and I’m responding to it. How about you stop ignoring my relevant question and stop going off topic? I don’t have the time or the patience to research the Quran. I used it by way of example. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/538 "2010-12-29T00:16:59Z")
> [@acsenray](#): > > This is kind of an elaborate construction of special pleadings and irrelevant conclusions. > > For example, there’s a creation of some new category called “national myth,” which is defined down so that can apply only in one circumstance. We always create categories of evidence. That’s how we evaluate evidence. And this isn’t a fine-tuned category to fit my needs. We find MANY true NATIONAL events, and no false ones. Find me something even remotely close to what I am presenting, if you can. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/539 "2010-12-29T00:23:02Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Yes, if you get americans to believe that millions of americans saw that dragon, then, AND ONLY THEN, will you have refuted Kuzari. Give me 2000 years, remove all modern media and access to journalsitic history from the world, give me a few centuries of a theocratic monarchy where I can declare history by fiat, and I’ll git 'er done. > [@](#): > > Anyone can make anything up. The issue, of course, is whether you can get a nation to believe it. It has only happened once. Why? It has happened many times. You are wrong. BILLIONS of people believe that Jesus walked out of a grave. It is no trick to get large numbers of people to believe bullshit. History is rife with it. > [@](#): > > (BTW, the “millions” isn’t just hidden somewhere in the text; Moses is recorded as counting each of the tribes twice – which is where the Book of Numbers got its name). The book is fiction, so who cares? And Moses didn’t write it because Moses didn’t exist. ---
**Author:** ![cosmosdan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@cosmosdan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cosmosdan)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/540 "2010-12-29T00:27:24Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > I am not an expert in Islam (although I did read the Quran ages ago). But I think that keeping the other requirements of the Quran aren’t contingent on believing in Allah. > > I know of a legend that happened with Rabbi Elijah Kramer (he is “the” greatest Talmudic sage of the past few hundred years). > > Make a long story short, he was in a bakery and a secular guy started to wolf down a bagel without washing his hands, which is illegal according to Jewish law. > > So the sage told the secular guy, “How dare you eat without washing your hands?!.” So the guy said, “I don’t believe in God.” So Rabbi Kramer said, “Do you think God will forgive you for not washing your hands with that lame excuse you just gave me?” > > According to the legend, the guy was scared out of his wits and he began following Jewish law. I have a very similar story that I personally witnessed We had a couple come in to the music story and did a trail cleaning of our floors with the idea that if they did a good job they would get a regular customer for their services. Ultimately the work was not satisfactory but they were a little upset at not getting the job so they came in and demanded to speak to the owner or manager and get an answer that satisfied them. They had to wait for the manager to get free from a customer and were basically told we just weren’t happy with their work and didn’t have a better answer. The wife was especially upset and told us they were good Christian people and we shouldn’t be treating them that way. As they left she said, “They’ll be consequences for this , you shouldn’t mess with God’s people” to which a salesman who was annoyed at their attitude, responded loudly, “Stop doing shoddy work in the name of God” I recently saw this salesman again and he’s fine and still funny. I hope that clears everything up. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=28)