# Pascal's Wager **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 29, 2010, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323 "2010-11-29T20:50:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![buckgully](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/eb9ed0/32.png) [@buckgully](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buckgully)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2011, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/581 "2011-01-02T22:41:34Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > And I can provide you with many, many true nationally-experienced, nationally-commemorated events. Then do it. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/582 "2011-01-03T00:03:18Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Let me reiterate my point: > I am not going to get into a discussion of your weird assessment of history over your popular definition of the word myth. Simply stick to the points you are attempting to make in this thread and leave me out of it. > > [/Modding] In other words, you are unwilling, or unable, to defend your accusation of me employing failed logic. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/583 "2011-01-03T00:31:27Z")
> [@buckgully](#): > > Then do it. The civil war. The holocaust. The existence of the temple. The existence of a person by the name of mohamed (he was believed to have led an entire nation; and his life was commemorated by all of the laws of islam). All I need to do is provide one. Le’s focus on the Temple. The Jews believe that millions of their ancestors visited the temple, in jerusalem, where they sacrificed animals, and lit a menorah. The existence of the temple was commemorated by the holidays of hanukah and tisha bav. There isn’t a single scholar on the globe who believes that there never was a temple in jerusalem. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/584 "2011-01-03T01:36:39Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > As I have said before, can you please show me how L. Ron Hubbard convinced people to believe a false nationally-experienced, nationally-commemorated history? Give me 100,000 people. I won’t even ask for 2.5 million. Scientology has over 100,000 members. In fact, as of 2007, they claim 3.5 million. The Mormons claim 4.9 million in the US alone. Both Hubbard and Smith managed to convince even your higher number. Still, it proves nothing about their claims. ---
**Author:** ![fuzzypickles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9d8465/32.png) [@fuzzypickles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fuzzypickles)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/585 "2011-01-03T06:02:22Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > In other words, you are unwilling, or unable, to defend your accusation of me employing failed logic. **Mr. Derer** , let me intervene with a few tidbits about what I personally believe. First things first, I do believe in God – to the extent of how one defines “God”, at least. In any given scenario, “God” can be anyone or anything you choose Him (or Her) to be, and one thing that Pascal’s Wager _does_ get right is if “God” exists, and has the authority to really mess things up for you, then you’d better get down on your knees and pray, or submit to His/Her authority, or at least play ball. For example…when you argue with a Moderator, especially one who is _officially_ in Moderation Mode – **You are talking to God.** Get it? Just sayin’ is all. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/586 "2011-01-03T19:35:22Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > The civil war. The holocaust. The existence of the temple. The existence of a person by the name of mohamed (he was believed to have led an entire nation; and his life was commemorated by all of the laws of islam). To the extent that there is any confidence that these events really happened, it is because they have been verified individually by _external evidence_. Putting them in a category of National Myth/Whatever You Fancy says nothing about their verifiability. They are not considered true because of whatever new category you have created. And putting them together in a group does not transfer their verifiability from one event to another – they still must be individually evaluation. Again, putting a name on something like “National Myth” does not make something self-verifying. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/587 "2011-01-03T20:05:26Z")
> [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > Scientology has over 100,000 members. In fact, as of 2007, they claim 3.5 million. The Mormons claim 4.9 million in the US alone. Both Hubbard and Smith managed to convince even your higher number. Still, it proves nothing about their claims. Yes. People’s beliefs are very often wrong. About half of america are republicans and half are democrats. That means that about half of us are wrong about the direction this country should go. You can convince people about many things. People trust people, especially if they are charismatic. But can you convince people to accept a false story about nationally-experieced, nationally-commemorated event? I have no reason to assume that that is possible. It hasn’t happened once. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/588 "2011-01-03T20:08:02Z")
> [@acsenray](#): > > To the extent that there is any confidence that these events really happened, it is because they have been verified individually by _external evidence_. Putting them in a category of National Myth/Whatever You Fancy says nothing about their verifiability. They are not considered true because of whatever new category you have created. And putting them together in a group does not transfer their verifiability from one event to another – they still must be individually evaluation. > > Again, putting a name on something like “National Myth” does not make something self-verifying. Wrong. The fact that all national events happen to be true cannot be by mere chance. The odds of all national beliefs about national events turning out to be true is not an accident. Rather - and common sense agrees with this - people’s beliefs about national events are always true. People know enough about their history not to accept a false national event. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/589 "2011-01-03T20:10:15Z")
You can’t say “all” national commemorated events are true when you’re claiming there is only one of them. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/590 "2011-01-03T20:11:42Z")
> [@fuzzypickles](#): > > For example…when you argue with a Moderator, especially one who is _officially_ in Moderation Mode – **You are talking to God.** Get it? > > Just sayin’ is all. I am not here to impress anyone or to curry favor with any “moderator.” If someone calls what many millions of people consider to be the best proof for existence of God “failed logic”, and then himself fails to logically back up his claim, then I will call him out on it. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/591 "2011-01-03T20:17:52Z")
[Moderating] Discussions of moderating do not belong in this forum, **abele derer**. This will be your last instruction to drop this. [/Moderating] > [@abele\_derer](#): > > If someone calls what many millions of people consider to be the best proof for existence of God Cite that “millions of people” believe this? The “best proof” comment was made by one person (at most) and it was phrased as a question. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/592 "2011-01-03T21:12:59Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Wrong. The fact that all national events happen to be true cannot be by mere chance. The odds of all national beliefs about national events turning out to be true is not an accident. Rather - and common sense agrees with this - people’s beliefs about national events are always true. People know enough about their history not to accept a false national event. Every sentence of this is fallacy. If this is where your reasoning begins and ends, you have nothing. ---
**Author:** ![fuzzypickles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9d8465/32.png) [@fuzzypickles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fuzzypickles)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/593 "2011-01-03T21:46:41Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > I am not here to impress anyone or to curry favor with any “moderator.” **abele derer** , [do yourself a favor and read this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=591539). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/594 "2011-01-03T23:02:31Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Many important points have been made by X-ray and diogenes. I will respond more thoroughly tomorrow. > > They could have easily known that the story was false. A prophet comes and says “millions of your ancestors would commanded to observe an everlasting sabbath by God.” They would have immediately asked, “If you, dear [UNKNOWN and ANONYMOUS] prophet, are right, then why haven’t we heard about it from our ancestors.” > > I am not claiming that it is IMPOSSIBLE for a charismatic prophet to successfully rebut their response. I am merely claiming that it has never happened, and the burden is on you to show me that it is possible. There are many true nationally-experienced, nationally commemorated events, and there isn’t even one wrong one. Not one. I don’t care if I can’t prove exactly when that belief formed: it is a belief and a form of evidence which has never been shown to be fallible. > > This is a short (and incomplete) sample of the commemorations of the Exodus. As I’ve said many times before, commemorations mean nothing. Rather, what excites me is the fact that the commemorations were believed to have been initiated at the time of the miracles: > > ([list of Biblical commandments snipped) And yet the Biblical account is replete with prophet after prophet after prophet chiding the nation for forgetting and disregarding Divine commandments. Apparently the Teeming Millions of the day didn’t find the miracles allegedly witnessed by millions of their ancestors to be terribly convincing. ---
**Author:** ![buckgully](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/eb9ed0/32.png) [@buckgully](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/buckgully)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2011, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/595 "2011-01-03T23:42:36Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > The civil war. Wait, do you mean The War of Northern Aggression? The one that was fought to free the slaves, or the one that was fought to protect state’s rights? I think you’re going to find that a mere 150 years later interpretation of what really happened depends heavily on who you’re talking to, where they are from, and what they hope to gain by commemorating it. Which again torpedoes your argument, not that there’s much left to torpedo. Really all that’s left is a guy hanging on to a floating coffin. ---
**Author:** ![DanCorleone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/8edcca/32.png) [@DanCorleone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DanCorleone)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2011, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/596 "2011-01-04T01:37:54Z")
Wouldn’t Columbus discovering America be a “nationally experienced” (there’s a holiday), “heavily commemorated” (there are parades) myth that is now pretty much accepted as false. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2011, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/597 "2011-01-04T02:03:38Z")
This whole argument about National Myths being grouped together and transferring their verified credibility to each other reminds me of those mortgage backed securities that crammed together low value high risk mortgages along with better investments and somehow came through with high ratings. Junk is still junk, even if you bundle it with gold and diamonds. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2011, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/598 "2011-01-04T12:58:28Z")
> [@buckgully](#): > > Wait, do you mean The War of Northern Aggression? > > The one that was fought to free the slaves, or the one that was fought to protect state’s rights? > > I think you’re going to find that a mere 150 years later interpretation of what really happened depends heavily on who you’re talking to, where they are from, and what they hope to gain by commemorating it. > > Which again torpedoes your argument, not that there’s much left to torpedo. Really all that’s left is a guy hanging on to a floating coffin. An additional problem with the Civil War as supportive of his argument is that there is so much other **actual** evidence that goes along with it that survives to this day. Like pictures, handwritten accounts, letters, uniforms, families who lost members in the war, armament, and battlefield evidence that may still be found today in the areas where battles were supposed to have taken place. It’s not at all a good example in support of the argument that lots of people believing something is evidence that it is true. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2011, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/599 "2011-01-04T20:18:14Z")
I guess I should’t have been that disrepectful to the moderator; I guess I lost my cool. He’s just trying to do his job. A couple of points must be made about the nationally-commemorated, nationally-experienced sinai history. First, I never heard that Columbus discovering America is considered a myth. I was under the impression that this was true. Either way, it isn’t relevant to the sinai history, since Columbus’ voyage wasn’t experienced by an entire nation. Second, regarding the Civil War – that some claim that it was the north’s aggressive war. I agree that history can be interpreted in various ways, but that doesn’t show me how a national event which never happened can later be believed to have happened. Many people are stuck on the fact that archeology shows that the Exodus never happened (I am not an expert in archeology; so I can only do my best to show why I think Kuzari is compelling). Here are three archeological finds that back up the historicity of the Exodus: 1. The only place in the entire Bible which describes women giving birth “on stones” is in Exodus 1:16. Indeed, archeologists have discovered that Egyptian women gave birth on two “birthstones”. 2. The Bible discribes the Egyptian deity as being a sheep (See, e.g., Genesis 46:34). which is why during the Exodus God asked them to slaughter the Passover sheep. Indeed, according to archeology, the Egyptian god Atum (the highest god of that time), was depicted as a ram. 3. Frank Yurco, a writer and an expert on archeology writes: “A question must be asked regarding Ramesses and Pithom, the cities on which the Hebrews labored, according to Exodus. Why did the [imaginary] biblical editors or redactors refer specifically to Ramesses, when in their own era and for some three centuries earlier the capital of Egypt had been Tanis, a city well known and often referred to in the Old Testament? From the Book of Judges onwards, Tanis is consistently referred to as Egypt’s capital. Why would a biblical editor insert Ramesses into a newly composed story when that city no longer existed in Egypt and had not been Pharaoh’s residence or the capital for the previous four to five centuries?” ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2011, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/600 "2011-01-04T20:24:38Z")
**abele derer** , you keep ignoring arguments when they become inconvenient. Why should anybody bother discussing this with you if you’re just going to change the subject when you don’t have a counterargument? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=31)