# Pascal's Wager **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 29, 2010, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323 "2010-11-29T20:50:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2011, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/641 "2011-01-05T05:13:09Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > It doesn’t relate to pascal’s wager. It came in by way of tangent. It was _your_ “tangent”(hijack). Getting back on topic(unless, of course, the thread title was a complete ruse just to continue this “Kuzari” krap), do you think Pascal was actually influenced by his own Wager, or was it conceived for the uneducated masses? ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2011, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/642 "2011-01-05T16:40:23Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > The fact that the prophets chide the populace is the biggest proof of the truth of the Bible. Why? Because they don’t chide the population for not believeing in the miracles. Why? Why do they focus on every sin but belief? Because everyone believed, good to the last drop. If everybody posting here believed that the moderators had the power to smite rules violators by causing their monitors to emit lightning bolts, we wouldn’t see many rules violations. Similarly, if the children of Israel actually took the miracle tales seriously as evidence of a deity who was both able and willing to reward them for being good and punish them for being bad, they would not need scoldings from prophets to keep them on the “good” side. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2011, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/643 "2011-01-05T16:42:36Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Also, you have to realize how strong the influence of the surrounding societies were. Everyone believed that if you don’t worship “the gods” you are utter, utter toast. > > The Egyptians, Assyrians, Babylonians, Phillistines and everyone else were all in agreement on this matter. It’s very hard to stand up to surrounding influences and believe in an unseen God. That’s why some people could not control themselves and they bowed to foreign gods. So, did the Egyptian, Assyrian, Babylonian, and Philistine gods produce miracles that were remembered and believed by their people? Or, if not, why did the children of Israel find those gods more convincing then their own, who (by your argument) had in fact done so? ---
**Author:** ![smileybastard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b3f665/32.png) [@smileybastard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smileybastard)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2011, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/644 "2011-01-05T16:45:54Z")
> [@smileybastard](#): > > Can you us a reasonable number of heavily-commemorated, nationally-experienced events that occurred at least 100 years ago so we have something for comparison? Sorry, I missed a key word. Can you tell us a reasonable number of heavily-commemorated, nationally-experienced events that occurred at least 100 years ago so we have something for comparison? ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/645 "2011-01-06T00:20:50Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > No, you’re wrong. Baalei Teshuva believe because they turn to religion to fill certain gaps in their life, to provide a sense of community, etc. Ask your average BT, especially one not affiliated with Aish HaTorah or Ohr Somayach - a Chabad BT would be great for this - and they’ll have never even vaguely thought about this Kuzari stuff, and yet they accept the historicity of the exodus and revelation without a second thought, simply because that’s what their Rabbi taught them. > > What a terrible example. The manna myth could very easily have evolved: A small group of people were in an inhospitable environment, and “miraculously” found food available - there are many scholarly guesses as to what it might have been. Over time the story evolved into an entire nation eating heavenly bread from the skies. Big deal. > > Incidentally, I’m not sure why I should be compelled to bring a counterexample to prove my point, although Kuzari proof-niks often insist on it. The Kuzari proof is disproved if I can show that it is plausible for the stories to have evolved from a naturalistic origin and become widely accepted. 1. Yes, baalei teshuva return to the faith for many reasons. The fact remains that they know good and well that their great-grandparents believed in Torah from heaven. You are claiming that people who none-of-their-ancestors believed in Torah from heaven can come to believe it. Therefore, you haven’t got anything. Sorry for spoiling your fun. 2. You claim that the “manna myth could very easily have evolved.” I don’t care much about your intuition. Let’s be empirical, as I started off the previous thread. Let’s find a hallucination-proof, nationally-commemorated event evolving over time. We don’t find any. 3. Finding a counter-example is crucial. Once we find one, we can show that my evidence is fallible. Until then, all you got is your intuition. The fact is that there are millions of myths. Only one was bold enough to include a nationally experienced- nationally-commemorated event. History does not evolve. If it was that “easy” it should have happened more than once. Is it impossible? I don’t know. 4. The fact that there was a written Torah which was believed to have been written by Moses would have “easily” prevented the evolution of the history. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/646 "2011-01-06T00:24:39Z")
All of those can be eloquently summarized as “nuh uh.” **abele derer** , have you figured out why you are not convincing anybody of the truth of your argument? ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/647 "2011-01-06T00:49:55Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > It was _your_ “tangent”(hijack). Getting back on topic(unless, of course, the thread title was a complete ruse just to continue this “Kuzari” krap), do you think Pascal was actually influenced by his own Wager, or was it conceived for the uneducated masses? According to Richard Dawkins, “Pascal was surely joking” when he promulgated his wager. Who am I, a mere “fucking stupid” person, to disagree with Richard Dawkins. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/648 "2011-01-06T00:52:10Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > All of those can be eloquently summarized as “nuh uh.” **abele derer** , have you figured out why you are not convincing anybody of the truth of your argument? I don’t have an argument. You do. I never claimed that my evidence is infallible. I simply don’t know. You are arguing that my evidence is fallible, for no reason whatsoever. And, no, you haven’t convinced me to ignore my evidence. Sleep tight. C u atheists tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/649 "2011-01-06T01:24:10Z")
> [@smileybastard](#): > > Sorry, I missed a key word. > > Can you tell us a reasonable number of heavily-commemorated, nationally-experienced events that occurred at least 100 years ago so we have something for comparison? All I have to tell you is one (actually I don’t even have to tell you one, but I’d rather not get into a philosophical debate about burdens of proof). All I am showing to you is that what a nation believes about a national experience of their ancestors is evidence that the event took place. How do I know that it is evidence? Because the Jews believed that millions of their ancestors saw the Temple in Jerusalem and commemorated the existence of the Temple forever. There was a temple. Archeology proved that there was a temple. So, must conclude (what most people would take as being obvious) that beliefs about national events is evidence that the event happened. How reliable is that evidence? Is it fallible? Is it infallible? I don’t know, but I do know that it is a form of evidence which has never shown itself to be false. Now I am really going to sleep - unless I can’t fall asleep again. ---
**Author:** ![smileybastard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b3f665/32.png) [@smileybastard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smileybastard)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/650 "2011-01-06T01:32:19Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > All I have to tell you is one (actually I don’t even have to tell you one, but I’d rather not get into a philosophical debate about burdens of proof). So what is the one? > [@abele\_derer](#): > > All I am showing to you is that what a nation beliefs about a national experience of their ancestors is evidence that the event took place. How so? You claim it, you are not showing it what so ever. You simply claim it is and expect others to prove you wrong. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > How do I know that it is evidence? Because the Jews believed that millions of their ancestors saw the Temple in Jerusalem and commemorated the existence of the Temple forever. That is how the story goes. I have heard the argument before, it is not evidence of anything. Some legends are based on facts to some degree and some are not. How is this evidence? > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Now I am really going to sleep - unless I can’t fall asleep again. > There was a temple. Archeology proved that there was a temple. So, must conclude (what most people would take as being obvious) that beliefs about national events is evidence that the event happened. As I said some are based on facts to a degree and others are not. Your conclusion does not follow. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > How reliable is that evidence? Is it fallible? Is it infallible? I don’t know, but I do know that it is a form of evidence which has never shown itself to be false. And that is why I asked for other national commemorated events. Basically you are claiming that they must be true based on one example. That is a horrible sample. ---
**Author:** ![Clark\_K](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c77e96/32.png) [@Clark\_K](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clark_K)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/651 "2011-01-06T01:37:01Z")
You say: > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Let’s find a hallucination-proof, nationally-commemorated event evolving over time. We don’t find any. You also say: > [@abele\_derer](#): > > The fact is that there are millions of myths. Only one was bold enough to include a nationally experienced- nationally-commemorated event. Is there not a contradiction between claiming there is only ONE example of this phenomenon and then concluding this phenomenon NEVER includes evolving myths? You can’t say it’s unique and then draw conclusions as if there’s a long track record. It’s like saying Earth has only one moon and there’s no life on it, so moons never have life. (All this assumes, of course, that your category of nationally experienced, nationally commemorated events is actually valid.) ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/652 "2011-01-06T02:05:19Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. Yes, baalei teshuva return to the faith for many reasons. The fact remains that they know good and well that their great-grandparents believed in Torah from heaven. You are claiming that people who none-of-their-ancestors believed in Torah from heaven can come to believe it. Therefore, you haven’t got anything. Sorry for spoiling your fun. OFFS. Fact: People will believe anything you tell them. People will certainly believe that their ancestors experienced something if they are told that by someone they respect. This is especially true in an age of virtually no written documents. What were they supposed to do, google it? In any case, there’s no reason to think there was a sudden adoption of the belief. > [@](#): > > 1. You claim that the “manna myth could very easily have evolved.” I don’t care much about your intuition. Let’s be **empirical** , as I started off the previous thread. Let’s find a hallucination-proof, nationally-commemorated event evolving over time. We don’t find any. I don’t think that word means what you think it means. > [@](#): > > 1. Finding a counter-example is crucial. Once we find one, we can show that my evidence is fallible. Until then, all you got is your intuition. The fact is that there are millions of myths. Only one was bold enough to include a nationally experienced- nationally-commemorated event. **History does not evolve.** If it was that “easy” it should have happened more than once. Is it impossible? I don’t know. Another bizarre statement. > [@](#): > > 1. The fact that there was a written Torah which was believed to have been written by Moses would have “easily” prevented the evolution of the history. I don’t understand what you’re even trying to say in point 4. Who said there was a Torah believed to have been written by Moshe? When was this true? Bear in mind that a reader with no preconceptions who reads the Torah will have no reason to think the vast majority of it was written by Moshe. It’s like reading a newspaper article about the Declaration of Independence and assuming the article was written by Thomas Jefferson. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/653 "2011-01-06T02:12:43Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > 1. Finding a counter-example is crucial. Once we find one, we can show that my evidence is fallible. Until then, all you got is your intuition. The fact is that there are millions of myths. Only one was bold enough to include a nationally experienced- nationally-commemorated event. History does not evolve. If it was that “easy” it should have happened more than once. Is it impossible? I don’t know. Dare I ask how you know that there are no other mythologies containing ahistoric “nationally experienced nationally events”? ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/654 "2011-01-06T03:38:54Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > I don’t have an argument. You do. I never claimed that my evidence is infallible. I simply don’t know. You are arguing that my evidence is fallible, for no reason whatsoever. And, no, you haven’t convinced me to ignore my evidence. > > Sleep tight. C u atheists tomorrow. Not unless you open a new thread to make your odd claim that an acceptance of a myth is “evidence” of an event. Since we are long past the point of actually debating Pascal’s Wager and you are now indicating that you do not even have an argument regarding your hijack, I think we are going to put this thread down. Feel free to open a new thread if you think you do have an argument regarding the use of myth to support history, but this thread is closed. [/Moderating] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=32)