# Pascal's Wager **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 29, 2010, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323 "2010-11-29T20:50:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/121 "2010-12-03T15:40:52Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Someone needs to look up the definition of “evidence”, it seems. Lionel Hutz: “Well, I’ve got hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence.” ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/122 "2010-12-03T15:42:20Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > First, of course not all forces of physics are exactly alike. That’s why we have many forces of physics. I’m not sure that four (electromagnetism, gravity, and the strong and weak nuclear forces) meet most people’s concept of “many.” ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/123 "2010-12-03T15:46:01Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Yes, but your argument is horridly circular. You claim “God is extraordinary.” But what makes something inherently “extraordinary,” if not the fact that there is no evidence for the existence of the “thing” under question. No, _you_ claim God is extraordinary, not me. I’m the one that wants proof. The definition of any god is extraordinary if it includes supernatural powers. If I claim to be able to rise from the dead, part the Red Sea, or move mountains, that’s extraordinary, yet that’s only a small part of the powers claimed for some god(s). > [@abele derer](#): > > Magnets also violate a law of physics: gravity. If that’s so, I can violate it my just standing up. I guess that makes me a god. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/124 "2010-12-03T15:49:38Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > My Kuzari evidence wasn’t from first hand accounts. It was from nationally-commemorated history. No, it wasn’t. It was pointed out to you, again and again, that phase has zero semantic value. The Exodus story is, in point of fact, a story written hundreds of years after the fact that purports to be a record of N people (which you claim to number in the millions). The fact that we have no first hand accounts falsifies your basic claim, that there were allegedly millions of witnesses, because all we really have is a handfull of writers claiming that there were others who saw it. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Regarding your invoking of archeology, archeology can’t prove a negative. Wrong. This shows as large a lack of understanding as your “magnets violate the law of gravity” claim. If you make a claim that a horde of people was in a certain place, at a certain time, and you find no evidence that was even possibly true, then you have falsified the claim. Just like if I claim that I have a cat in a box and you open up the box and see that there’s no cat in it, you’ve proven that my claim was false. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Second, archeologists are often biblically ignorant. You were called on that error in the other thread and, IIRC, you changed the subject. Faced with the actual quotes that made no such differentiation, you were unable to respond. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Sorry for going back to Kuzari. My mistake. There is really no “back to Kuzari”, this is just a back door attempt to argue the same thing. Both the Kuzari “proof” and Pascal’s wager are fallacious methods of supporting your religious beliefs. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/125 "2010-12-03T15:50:03Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > No, _you_ claim God is extraordinary, not me. I’m the one that wants proof. > > The definition of any god is extraordinary if it includes supernatural powers. If I claim to be able to rise from the dead, part the Red Sea, or move mountains, that’s extraordinary, yet that’s only a small part of the powers claimed for some god(s).If that’s so, I can violate it my just standing up. I guess that makes me a god. Why is an intelligent force of nature more “supernatural” than magnetism? ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/126 "2010-12-03T15:52:53Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > You were called on that error in the other thread and, IIRC, you changed the subject. Faced with the actual quotes that made no such differentiation, you were unable to respond. I don’t want to go back to Kuzari. But I provided the opinion of the classic commentators regarding whether they were in Kadesh or not and I have yet to hear a response. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/127 "2010-12-03T15:55:35Z")
**abele derer** , have you read Pascal’s wager now? ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/128 "2010-12-03T15:56:26Z")
No. If it makes you feel better, call it “Abele’s Wager.” ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/129 "2010-12-03T16:02:01Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Why is an intelligent force of nature more “supernatural” than magnetism? :dubious: Because electromagnetism is the interaction of charged particles. A sentient, volitional force which cannot be measured, tested, or observed by those without faith in it is, shall we say, something different. This fundamentalist gambit is one that most of us are used to; not content to let your faith rest on faith, you are trying to appropriate reason as well. This is no different than arguing that there is “scientific evidence” for Creationism. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/130 "2010-12-03T16:03:28Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > First, of course not all forces of physics are exactly alike. That’s why we have many forces of physics. The one we are providing evidence for - a minute amount of evidence - is one which is an intelligent force of physics. There is no evidence that such a thing is even possible, much less any evidence for it actually existing. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Second, are you really claiming that one man’s testimony is “no evidence.”? We are talking of millions of people making _mutually exclusive_ claims involving _violations of the laws of physics_. Claims on a subject that people are notoriously prone to both lie about and be deluded about. No, that isn’t evidence. > [@abele\_derer](#): > > Third, if you call reports of miracles to be “claims of impossibilities” you will have to prove that miracles are impossible. The laws of physics do that. And no, I don’t have to prove a negative, you need to come up with evidence _for_ them. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/131 "2010-12-03T16:13:29Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > There is no evidence that such a thing is even possible, much less any evidence for it actually existing. > > We are talking of millions of people making _mutually exclusive_ claims involving _violations of the laws of physics_. Claims on a subject that people are notoriously prone to both lie about and be deluded about. No, that isn’t evidence. > > The laws of physics do that. And no, I don’t have to prove a negative, you need to come up with evidence _for_ them. The fact that the claims are mutually exclusive is indeed a reason to find the evidence to be non-compelling. But it is not a reason to assume that each piece of evidence is ZERO. Call it 0.0000000001. You simply can’t call it Zero. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/132 "2010-12-03T16:15:57Z")
So all the racists’ claims about the evils of the Jews really are evidence? Odd. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/133 "2010-12-03T16:20:17Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > It is true in the vast vast majority of actual circumstances. No, it isn’t. The notion that an object’s weight determines how quickly it falls appears to be true only if you look superficially, but it’s easily dispelled. Take an ordinarily tissue, unflattened, and drop it. Then pick it up, crumple it into a was, and drop it again. The crumpled was will fall more quickly though its weight has not changed. ---
**Author:** ![fuzzypickles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9d8465/32.png) [@fuzzypickles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fuzzypickles)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/134 "2010-12-03T16:20:52Z")
> [@42fish](#): > > I’m not sure that four (electromagnetism, gravity, and the strong and weak nuclear forces) meet most people’s concept of “many.” Not to mention that three of the four (strong, weak & electromagnetism) have been demonstrated to be aspects of [a single unified force](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_unified_theory), and the fourth (gravity) is presumed, though not yet proven, [to also be part of that single force](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything). > [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > In other words, claiming without providing evidence that I have a brother is not an extraordinary claim. Claiming that my brother can teleport and throw green lightning is an extraordinary claim. All the same, you could easily be lying about having a brother. It’s just that nobody will question your claim, since having a brother is not at all unusual. **abele derer** does bring up a good point, however, regarding the definition of “extraordinary.” To most religious people, the existence of God is NOT extraordinary – hence, to prove the existence of God _to themselves_ does not require extraordinary evidence. It’s only when they attempt to “prove” the existence of God to atheists like **Der Trihs** that a much higher standard is required. (BTW…why hasn’t **k\*\*\*\*b** \*\*\* shown up in this thread? He must be on vacation…) ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/135 "2010-12-03T16:25:34Z")
> [@fuzzypickles](#): > > To most religious people, the existence of God is NOT extraordinary – hence, to prove the existence of God _to themselves_ does not require extraordinary evidence. It’s only when they attempt to “prove” the existence of God to atheists like **Der Trihs** that a much higher standard is required. Nah (and Der is an anti-theist, not an atheist). To anybody who doesn’t already believe, alleging a force that violates the laws of physics, is untestable, unfalsifiable, unknowable and must be taken on faith is, indeed, an extraordinary claim. It’s the difference between “there is a blue rock on the dark side of the moon” and “I have a rock that grants me the power of telepathy.” ---
**Author:** ![x-ray\_vision](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/x-ray_vision/32/351_2.png) [@x-ray\_vision](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/x-ray_vision)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/136 "2010-12-03T17:03:30Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Magnets also violate a law of physics: gravity. This thread delivers! ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/137 "2010-12-03T17:09:12Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Fin: My Kuzari evidence wasn’t from first hand accounts. It was from _nationally-commemorated history_. (emphasis mine)It might help if you would quit using terms that make sense only to you. “Nationally-commemorated history” is a nonsense term. ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/138 "2010-12-03T17:10:15Z")
> [@abele\_derer](#): > > Magnets also violate a law of physics: gravity. Magnets do not violate the laws of gravity, any more than the chair I am sitting on does. If I hold a magnet over a stickpin and thereby cause the latter to fly up and cling to the magnet, I am applying a force that is (locally) greater than the force of gravity is, just as the chair is applying a force on my backside. I’ve heard people claim that airplanes violate the laws of gravity as well. It’s always an indicator that the person has either not given the matter any real thought, or is badly misinformed. ---
**Author:** ![abele\_derer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/6bbea6/32.png) [@abele\_derer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abele_derer)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/139 "2010-12-03T17:42:35Z")
Czarcasm: It’s funny that I used to be a unsure regarding the Kuzari argument (and I was always agnostic about Pascal’s Wager), so I can at least sympathize with your positions (I was always a believer in the Torah, but it was mostly because of the Biblical prophesies, not the Kuzari argument). As an orthodox jew, I actually hardly read the Bible – I spent most of my time studying the Talmud. I decided to go through the Bible (with all the classic commentators) and I realized just how stunningly difficult (though not impossible), to get a nation to buy into this story. For example, all Jews believe in the same “Seventh Day” [the Sabbath] and the same “Seventh Year”[Shmeeta]. To get everyone to buy onto the same burdensome weekly holiday, which they all believed was initiated by Moses to be binding forever, essentially forced me to accept the Kuzari argument. ---
**Author:** ![Indistinguishable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90ced4/32.png) [@Indistinguishable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Indistinguishable)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2010, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323/140 "2010-12-03T17:54:24Z")
And how incredible that all Americans buy into the same, twice as burdensome weekly holiday of Saturday and Sunday! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pascals-wager/562323.md?page=8)