# Pathways to a Trump presidency **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 24, 2016, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004 "2016-03-24T02:49:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/21 "2016-03-25T01:02:31Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Look no further than 2004 - the Dems failed to turn out sufficient to defeat W, who had lied us into a disastrous war. Or 2000, when the sitting VP couldn’t even win his own state! Gore was a special case. He could put the most rabid politico to sleep. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/22 "2016-03-25T01:17:54Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Trump has won 18 out of 30 states and leads in the delegate count. > > He is a politician, and a successful one. We’re talking about Donald Trump right? The guy with the combover and the overactive ego? Remember, it’s Republicans who support him, the party who brought us Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann, it’s not like normal Americans vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/23 "2016-03-25T02:17:00Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Trump is not a politician. He entered the presidential race with no background in politics, beat everyone (including politicians who were considered shoe ins) and he did it while disavowing both the republican establishment as well as the republican fundraising channels. He took on the entire GOP power establishment and won. He is a very talented politician. The fact that people don’t like him doesn’t change that fact. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/24 "2016-03-25T02:20:45Z")
> [@Shooby](#): > > For the general election: > > - Major terrorist attack on U.S. soil. Trump’s belligerence towards immigrants and other nations in general could score him some serious points here, enough to overtake Hillary/Bernie. > > ----- OR ----- > > - Massive scandal for the Dem candidate. Not sure how big it would have to be. Perhaps something indictable or at least something that is a cardinal sin in American politics, like a video of him/her denouncing Christianity the way some denounce Islam. ----- OR ----- Garden variety recession in the US, caused by a collapse of imports after China/Europe/XXXXXX implode. Now it is late March and there’s no evidence that this has happened yet. But it remains a possibility. Though frankly I can imagine a number of other scenarios. Once you realize that Trump has upended previous political patterns, it becomes evident that relying on your intuition is problematic, since it is based upon possibly obsolete historical relationships. So you have to rebuild your arguments from the ground up, questioning implicit assumptions along the way. And throwing in an additional error term. I could see Trump winning by a thin margin in the popular vote, or (more likely, but not certain) being blown out of the water in a truly epic fail. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/25 "2016-03-25T03:29:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think the maximize white-vote theory doesn’t have much hope – there’s a segment of the white population in the US that will never, ever willingly associate themselves with open white supremacism, and I think that segment is larger (and growing every year) than the portion Obama got in '12. Considering how easy it’s been so far to paint Trump as catering to white supremacists (mostly because, you know, it’s kind of true), Hillary will use this strategy to maximal effect. > > If Trump is successfully painted as the friendly-to-white-supremacists candidate, then he has zero chance, and his white share (and, obviously, non-white share) would be lower than Romney’s, and he’ll lose in a blow out. Of course there will be whites who will never vote that way. Just as there are blacks who won’t associate themselves with the Democratic Party. You’ll just be one of those white voters that liberal organizations eagerly interview in all the same places, talking about how white voters need to abandon the Republican Party and join the Democrats, who are their real friends. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/26 "2016-03-25T03:45:11Z")
A sniper shoots Hillary at the debate and Trump delivers a speech so rousing he gets swept into office with powers that will make martial law seem like anarchy. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/27 "2016-03-25T03:55:27Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > He entered the presidential race with no background in politics, beat everyone (including politicians who were considered shoe ins) and he did it while disavowing both the republican establishment as well as the republican fundraising channels. He took on the entire GOP power establishment and won. > > He is a very talented politician. The fact that people don’t like him doesn’t change that fact. Trump is the anti-politician, and completely unsuited to governing anything but his own interests. A few months on a soapbox doesn’t change that. He’s a salesman and no more. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/28 "2016-03-25T04:03:04Z")
You have to grade him on a curve though because he’s not relying on his staff to feed him his lines and help him cram on various subjects. All politicians are basically salesmen. Used car salesmen. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/29 "2016-03-25T04:37:38Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Trump is the anti-politician, and completely unsuited to governing anything but his own interests. A few months on a soapbox doesn’t change that. He’s a salesman and no more. I never said Trump was suited to run a government. He is an empty suit with paper thin skin and a giant ego as well as a penchant for appealing to the lowest common denominator. He would be incompetent as president. However politicians are people who get elected and Trump is very talented at that. Being elected and governing are not the same thing, a politician who excels at one may suck at the other. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/30 "2016-03-25T04:37:54Z")
What kind of salesmen were they before the invention of the car? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/31 "2016-03-25T04:39:24Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > What kind of salesmen were they before the invention of the car? Snake oil. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/32 "2016-03-25T04:40:25Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I never said Trump was suited to run a government. He is an empty suit with paper thin skin and a giant ego as well as a penchant for appealing to the lowest common denominator. He would be incompetent as president. > > However politicians are people who get elected and Trump is very talented at that. Being elected and governing are not the same thing, a politician who excels at one may suck at the other. So far as I know, he hasn’t been elected for anything. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/33 "2016-03-25T05:20:35Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > A sniper shoots Hillary at the debate and Trump delivers a speech so rousing he gets swept into office with powers that will make martial law seem like anarchy. Of course, the original _Manchurian Candidate_ concept would involve **Hillary** getting shot, surviving, and then getting swept into office with powers, etc. But Trump is no man to be bound by precedent, no more so than by morals or ethics or decorum or decency or historical knowledge or scientific knowledge or esthetic judgment or common sense. Id on two legs, that one. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/34 "2016-03-25T05:27:29Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > What kind of salesmen were they before the invention of the car? “Now, this here horse is of a prime Arabian line and is really only two years old . . . he’s only missing those teeth because his last owner was too kind and fed him too many sugar-lumps, but the little old lady only actually rode him on Sundays to church . . .” ---
**Author:** ![Sputnikkk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Sputnikkk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sputnikkk)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/35 "2016-03-25T10:45:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The best plausible path for Trump is for white turnout to increase a ton(which it has done during the primaries), and win more of the white vote than Romney did. That’s actually not that hard to do. Clinton also has her ways of shooting herself in the foot and her husband will help her out in that respect, especially if Trump gets him riled up. Clinton lost his cool when she was up against Obama and he didn’t think he was being fair. Trump will make his head explode. I’m hoping the high voter turn out of republican primary voters is due to many people being repelled by Trump and turning up and voting against him, instead of for him. So, hopefully high turnout doesn’t mean more votes for Trump in the election. Also, read that many democrats polled said they didn’t have a preference between Hillary or Bernie which to me translates to, meh I’ll just wait and vote later in the election. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/36 "2016-03-25T12:43:26Z")
As a middle-aged, middle-class white guy, I often fail to see any clear way the choice between the presidential candidates will meaningfully affect my day-to-day life. I’ve been ambivalent in presidential elections before, but my desire to have more liberal justices on the courts has been a main factor in my consistently voting Dem. I’m hoping that the Dems succeed in capitalizing on the Repubs’ position re: the current vacancy to maximize turnout. There are so many significant issues before the court, and have been so many developments lately, that it is easy to paint the contrast of what might occur if the court moved further right. The vast majority of folk favor gay rights, privacy rights, etc. The idea that the Repubs won’t even give a moderate like Garland a hearing, juxtaposed with the prospect of Trump being able to nominate multiple justices, ought to mobilize several folk. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/37 "2016-03-25T13:45:49Z")
Here is the formula that could get Trump elected: Fear of Trump being president \< Distaste for Hilary being president = Trump presidency It’s really that simple. I don’t like Hilary, but I will go out and vote because I fear that a Trump presidency would be terrible. If enough disenchanted Democrats stay home, Trump can win. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/38 "2016-03-25T15:43:26Z")
Exactly. The number of American’s who’ve been thoroughly indoctrinated with a pathological hatred of Hillary is simply amazing. It only takes 60-ish million voters to become prez. Out of a country with about 250 million potential voters. Most lefties are disgusted by Trump, not angered by him. Most righties are angered by Hillary, not disgusted by her. That emotional difference will probably translate into a significant turnout differential. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/39 "2016-03-25T15:58:37Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **adaher** : > > You have to grade him on a curve though because he’s not relying on his staff to feed him his lines and help him cram on various subjects. Which makes him an even worse politician. A politician is supposed to lean heavily on a staff of well-trained and knowledgeable specialists. It’s impossible to do the job without them. If someone forgoes such a staff, then the conclusion we should draw isn’t that it’s impressive how well he’s doing without them. The conclusion we should draw is that he’s an idiot to even try it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2016, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004/40 "2016-03-25T16:12:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The best plausible path for Trump is for white turnout to increase a ton(which it has done during the primaries), and win more of the white vote than Romney did. That’s actually not that hard to do. … We’ve played with the 538 app before and that increasing white turnout a ton and winning more of than did Romney is not so simple. College educated White turnout already is very high (77%) and went for Romney 56%. He needs to not lose much of that share; getting more of it is not gonna happen. Will some White college educated that went Romney over Obama sit it out or even switch sides in a Trump v Clinton? Probably. Non-college educated White is his doubling down. Lots of room to improve from their '12 turnout of 57% and maybe grow on the already high 62% share Romney got. Doing that significantly without causing other impacts that at least offset those gains? Trickier. He has to get Blacks to vote more like they voted back in '96, staying home in much greater numbers and giving him more like 10 to 15% of those who do vote. IOW he has to get Clinton doing significantly poorer with the overall Black demographic than did either Kerry or Gore v. Bush. And he has to hope that he does not motivate Hispanics to actually vote too much more. Do all that, say increase non-college educated White to 62/67% turnout/share (from 57/62) with no offsetting impacts … he can win. It’s a hard sell. Even for a very good salesman. > [@adaher](#): > > … All politicians are basically salesmen. … IMHO that is actually an important and undervalued part of the job. Part of being President is being salesman-in-chief in addition to being the skillful manager - convincing the American people on a course of action. Bill Clinton was amazing at that part of the job. He made people believe they had been thinking that way _all along_ and that he was just articulating it for them. The best Presidents have sold the American people on a vision of themselves as noble and heroic. H.R. Clinton is nowhere near as good at the sales side of the job as W.J. Clinton was. That is at first blush advantage Trump as he is a horrible manager and executive but a great salesman. And his particular sales approach, basically selling himself as amazing with unbridled bravado, appealing to fear, and depending on ignorance and distrust of mainstream media, has worked well with a large segment of GOP primary and caucus voters. He does not however sell that positive vision of ourselves. At least not yet. Is he a good enough salesman to be able to adjust the sales pitch to a different customer base in time, convincingly, and without losing those he’s already sold? If he is, he can win. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pathways-to-a-trump-presidency/750004.md?page=3)