# Patriots coin toss **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 27, 2015, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509 "2015-12-27T22:44:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2015, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/21 "2015-12-28T22:20:51Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Are there any stats on how many times the receiving team scored a touchdown on the first drive? I found a reddit conversation from mid-2014 that showed that out of the 41 OT games since the rules change in 2012, 7 had a TD on the opening drive. Based on that admittedly very small sample size, you’ve got around a 1 in 5 shot of winning without giving the other team the ball. ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2015, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/22 "2015-12-28T22:22:39Z")
> [@Bootis](#): > > Is there any info out there (though guessing probably there isn’t) on how much going against a strong wind decreases likelihood of scoring vs how much going with a strong wind increases that likelihood? if going against wind decreases a team’s TD% by more than say 3%, and going with the wind increases scoring % by more than 3%, then I’d still bet taking the wind instead of the ball leads to a higher win%. You’d have to gather that data by hand, and with so few OT games (looks like 50ish since the rule change?), I’d imagine well less than 10 have wind strong enough to factor into this decision. You’d have an embarassingly small sample size with which to try a draw a real conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![NJ22](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/4af34b/32.png) [@NJ22](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NJ22)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2015, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/23 "2015-12-28T23:15:52Z")
Pats look very beatable once the playoffs start ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2015, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/24 "2015-12-28T23:42:26Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > We know that the receiving team has a very good chance of scoring at least a field goal through the history SDOT. I can’t see the reasoning behind giving up a very high percentage field goal success on the hunch that you’ll make it up afterwards. The advantage of kicking off is that you have a much better sense of what you need to do on 4th down. The receiving team is going to punt/kick on 4th down, but that’s because they don’t know what the other team will do on their next possession. But the kicking team already has that knowledge, and know whether they need to go for it or can afford to punt/kick. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2015, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/25 "2015-12-28T23:59:44Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > Belichick insists it was his plan all along, and you have to view his comments suspiciously. No, I think it was the better choice. His defense had played much better than his offense that day (yes, another OL went down), and he had to be confident they could hold the Jets to no more than a field goal if that on their first drive. His offense would then know what they had to do - and it might have been only to get down to the 35 or so and let Gostkowski win it. If the offense went out first, they might not have been able to get more than that anyway, and might have had to punt, giving the Jets better field position than with one of G’s unreturnable kickoffs. It just didn’t work that way. Who really expected a Ryan Fitzpatrick team to get a TD on the opening drive? But yes, the coach had his player’s back afterward, like he should. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2015, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/26 "2015-12-29T00:18:13Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > The advantage of kicking off is that you have a much better sense of what you need to do on 4th down. > > The receiving team is going to punt/kick on 4th down, but that’s because they don’t know what the other team will do on their next possession. But the kicking team already has that knowledge, and know whether they need to go for it or can afford to punt/kick. I’m guessing you mean what to do if they’re on the far side of field goal range. So they can’t afford to miss a field goal in that case anyway so they’re going to punt anyway. On the second possession if the receiving team already scored a field goal that team will go for the field goal on 4th down no matter what, but they’re not in any better position because of that, it’s worse because it’s all on the line right there. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2015, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509/27 "2015-12-29T01:37:28Z")
If you accept that the generic win probability for receiving in OT is 53%, then that’s a significant advantage. But it wouldn’t take to much to move the probability to favoring the kicking team. If the teams playing have stronger defences than offences, like they seemed to in this game, it could make up that small margin. If the advantage for the Pats receiving is that they might score a TD and win immediately, it’s worth noting that their offence only scored one during regulation, and that required 2 fourth down conversions, which they wouldn’t go for under normal game circumstances. I don’t think it’s necessarily unreasonable to think kicking gives the best chances under these conditions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/patriots-coin-toss/741509.md?page=1)