# Paul Ryan's Republican Primary Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 20, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713 "2016-03-20T23:43:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/21 "2016-03-21T06:01:48Z")
The reasons politicians say they don’t want to run and get away with it is because they all do it. Obama ruled out a run for the Presidency himself, at least as early as the 2008 election. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/22 "2016-03-21T06:25:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The reasons politicians say they don’t want to run and get away with it is because they all do it. Obama ruled out a run for the Presidency himself, at least as early as the 2008 election. This type of shit is so damn ridiculous. There’s a bunch of good and legitimate reasons not admit you’re think about a presidency run and “because they get away with it” ain’t one of them. That’s what I like to call cynicism masquerading as intelligence. Do you tell your boss that you’re looking for a new job? No? Ooh, then you must be some kinda politician! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/23 "2016-03-21T07:02:39Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Ryan’s denial was pretty specific: _“I actually think you should run for president if you’re going to be president, if you want to be president.”_ So if Ryan gets picked at the convention, Trump and Clinton will both be happy to repeat this quote and say that by Ryan’s own admission he’s disqualified himself by not running a full campaign. > > I think Ryan does plan on running for President - but not this year. He’s in a solid position in the House and he’s young. He’ll let the current crop of Republican candidates crash and burn. His reputation won’t be tarnished. Then he’ll run in 2020 if Clinton looks vulnerable or 2024 if she doesn’t. This. Neither a third-party run nor a nomination-theft has any real chance of success. The R vote will be fractured either way, either by the Trumpians or the anti-Trumps. If I’m a smart politician and I want to have a political future, I’m keeping my hands WAY off this election. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/24 "2016-03-21T07:25:39Z")
Ryan’s not stupid. He has to realize he’s being asked to throw himself on a grenade in order to save the rest of the platoon. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/25 "2016-03-21T07:32:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The reasons politicians say they don’t want to run and get away with it is because they all do it. Obama ruled out a run for the Presidency himself, at least as early as the 2008 election. But usually they leave themselves some wiggle room so they can walk it back. They’ll say something like _“I have no plans on running for President”_ - which leaves open the possibility of a convention draft. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/26 "2016-03-21T07:39:22Z")
Actually, Obama was definitive: > [@](#): > > (Videotape, January 22, 2006): > > MR. RUSSERT: When we talked back in November of '04, after your election, I said, “There’s been enormous speculation about your political future. Will you serve your full six-year term as a United States senator from Illinois?” Obama: “Absolutely.” > > SEN. OBAMA: I will serve out my full six-year term. You know, Tim, if you get asked enough, sooner or later you get weary and you start looking for new ways of saying things, but my thinking has not changed. > > MR. RUSSERT: But, but–so you will not run for president or vice president in 2008? > > SEN. OBAMA: I will not. [http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/09/13/2004-flashback-obama-felt-he-lacked-experience-be-president](http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/09/13/2004-flashback-obama-felt-he-lacked-experience-be-president) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/27 "2016-03-21T12:54:28Z")
A fair point, adaher, albeit I would note that was in January 2006, nearly three years (well, 33-34 months) before the 2008 election, not something that is concurrent with the ongoing election process as it is happening. I’m with little Nemo above, I can’t see him doing it knowing he’ll catch it from both sides (the Dems and the disaffected Trumpers) and maybe ruin his chances for the future. Still, Interesting Times… ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/28 "2016-03-21T12:59:29Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Ryan’s not stupid. He has to realize he’s being asked to throw himself on a grenade in order to save the rest of the platoon. He already did that when he took the Speaker job. Now he’d be throwing himself on top of a warhead to save the army. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/29 "2016-03-21T13:07:53Z")
Ryan will not be the nominee, and he will make no public attempt to be the nominee. Why? Because regardless of his magical math, he does have a few brain cells in his head. 1. Remember that rule that says you’ve got to win 8 states to be considered at the convention? It’s gonna be hard to change that rule with both the Trump and Cruz forces aligned against it. 2. Even if he were successful, he’d have supporters not just of Trump, but of Cruz as well, feeling that they were stabbed in the back, and Ryan had done the stabbing. That would screw his chances not just in 2016 but forever. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/30 "2016-03-21T13:49:27Z")
Ryan has to know this is over and Trump is the nominee. The things listed in the OP are better described as poor leadership than actual planning. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/31 "2016-03-21T13:55:32Z")
There is no way anyone with half a brain jumps into this race as a sacrificial lamb for the establishment. Ryan knows he can’t win after the Trumpistas bail on the party if the nomination is taken away from him, why would he throw away his career for a chance at getting creamed by Hillary? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/32 "2016-03-21T14:00:04Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Ryan will not be the nominee, and he will make no public attempt to be the nominee. > > Why? Because regardless of his magical math, he does have a few brain cells in his head. > > 1. Remember that rule that says you’ve got to win 8 states to be considered at the convention? It’s gonna be hard to change that rule with both the Trump and Cruz forces aligned against it. > > 2. Even if he were successful, he’d have supporters not just of Trump, but of Cruz as well, feeling that they were stabbed in the back, and Ryan had done the stabbing. That would screw his chances not just in 2016 but forever. I agree. It’s too late for a White Knight to come in and save the party. All said Knight would do would be to split it up. Do you know if item #1 holds regardless of how many votes they are on (at a contested convention)? IIRC, there is at least one “rule” that is only valid on the first round of voting (but can’t remember what that rule is). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/33 "2016-03-21T14:04:06Z")
Rule #1 (first time I’ve heard of it, actually) eliminates Kasich, too. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/34 "2016-03-21T14:14:51Z")
So far it eliminates everyone except Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/35 "2016-03-21T14:27:13Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > If you don’t allow of folks to change their minds, you’re gonna have a _lot_ of hypocrites out there. Oh, I agree with you. I didn’t hear a lot of that argument back in 2004, though, during the famous “Kerry is a FLIP-FLOPPER!” Republican smear campaign. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/36 "2016-03-21T14:36:07Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Ryan’s a delusional Randian who thinks ideology trumps math. Absolutely. He’s exactly the kind of far-right nutcase that would get the Kochs to enthusiastically support him. But such is the dilemma in which the Republican party now finds itself that he has the following great virtue going for him: _at least he is not a psychopath_. Trump is. [Psychologist and author Maria Konnikova](http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/01/can-you-spot-a-liar/423588/) makes the case that Trump fully meets the overlapping clinical criteria for both narcissism and psychopathology. Trump is the nightmare that the Founders tried to guard against. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/37 "2016-03-21T14:59:09Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > There is no way anyone with half a brain jumps into this race as a sacrificial lamb for the establishment. Ryan knows he can’t win after the Trumpistas bail on the party if the nomination is taken away from him, why would he throw away his career for a chance at getting creamed by Hillary? Agree, but I’d restate it just a bit. There is no way anyone with half a brain \*and a long political future \*jumps into this race as a sacrificial lamb for the establishment. Ryan knows he can’t win … Ryan has a future to protect. So he’s smart to sit this one out while appearing statesmanlike (for R values of “statesmanlike”) from the sidelines. And happily enough for an exposure hound, also from the podium of the convention. Somebody like Romney or even McCain (you heard it here first folks!) has very little future to protect. And as such might be willing to roll the dice hoping for double-six but expecting something less. I see a bunch of good in the R draftee being a prior nominee or nominee also-ran. Either Romney or McCain can honestly say they’ve been through the R primary process, been fully vetted by the R electorate, and found to be fully good enough to be the party’s standard bearer. a few yeas may have changed who their competition is, but it hasn’t changed who/what they are. Drafting some other nameless 2nd term Senator not so much. ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/38 "2016-03-21T14:59:59Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I agree. It’s too late for a White Knight to come in and save the party. All said Knight would do would be to split it up. > > Do you know if item #1 holds regardless of how many votes they are on (at a contested convention)? IIRC, there is at least one “rule” that is only valid on the first round of voting (but can’t remember what that rule is). The rules can (and probably will) be changed again when the convention begins. And the rules can be suspended with a 2/3 vote of the convention. But as it currently stands, rule 40(a) says there shall be a roll call, rule 40(b) says that only candidates who present certificates from 8 or more states showing a majority in those states shall be placed in nomination, rule 40(c) says they can give a nominating speech, rule 40(d) says that when the roll is called you need a majority of all eligible delegates to win, and rule 40(e) says that the chair will call the roll over and over until someone wins. Rule 40(d) also says that the chair will announce only the votes for candidates eligible under rule 40(b), so no “write in” votes. As it stands now, there is no rule that says more candidates can be placed into nomination after the first roll call. > [@](#): > > RULE NO. 40 > Nominations > (a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting > thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for > nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a > motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be > required. > > (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall > demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of > the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of > Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of > the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the > secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to > this rule and the established order of business. > (c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of > the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes. > (d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of > the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall > announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule. > Before the convention adjourns sine die, the chairman of the convention shall declare the candidate nominated by the Republican > Party for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States. > (e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be > called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast > in the convention. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/39 "2016-03-21T15:07:28Z")
Thanks **AD**! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/40 "2016-03-21T16:08:27Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Ryan is still young and presumably he figured in 2014 that 2016 wasn’t his year, unless something bizarre happens like the front runner is a reality show celebrity who has never held public office. Ha! > > Or to put it another way, if Ryan wasn’t angling for the nomination, he would try to assemble a budget on time like he originally promised. As majority leader of the House, that’s his job. I can’t blame him. Trump has shown that there all sorts of paths to the Republican nomination. Maybe Ryan should attend acting classes in Hollywood. …but you weren’t talking about a future election, you were talking about 2016. No matter how much Ryan may want to be President in the _future_ he is surely smart enough to know that allowing himself to be drafted if things fall apart at the convention could very well be career suicide. As **RTFirefly** points out in post #29 there are a couple of reasons why this isn’t likely to happen. AND, even if there is a successful vote to suspend the rules and Rule #40 is removed as an impediment, there is still the fact the Trumpists, and to a lesser degree the Cruz fans, would go berserk if they felt their guy was being cheated. So far Ryan has given the impression he is smart enough to know how tainted the nomination would be in that situation. Of course, he could always turn out to be less intelligent than I think he is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713.md?page=3)