# Paul Ryan's Republican Primary Campaign **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 20, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713 "2016-03-20T23:43:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/41 "2016-03-21T16:25:43Z")
If the party kept, or returns to, its normal progression, anointing The Man Whose Turn Is Next, Ryan would be at the top of the list as its last VP nominee. So he may be hoping for that, instead of the implosion going on around him. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/42 "2016-03-21T17:00:53Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > …but you weren’t talking about a future election, you were talking about 2016. > > No matter how much Ryan may want to be President in the _future_ he is surely smart enough to know that allowing himself to be drafted if things fall apart at the convention could very well be career suicide. It wouldn’t be career suicide at all. It would however probably foreclose Ryan’s future shot at the Presidency. Which is a compelling argument against the OP. But if Ryan ran for the Presidency and lost, he would still be part of the House leadership at the very least. I’m guessing he could even remain as Speaker of the House, since apparently nobody else in the GOP wants the job. Too much responsibility. Counter-hypotheses to Stan Collander’s claims: 1. Ryan is incompetent. Or a little green. 2. Ryan is not incompetent, but he is playing to the Republican Caucus’s hardline base. A hardline base that after all rejected Boehner. In California, Republicans routinely had legislative tantrums assuring delayed budgets. That only ended when they lost their ability to obstruct after their representation dropped below 33%. For the past couple of decades the GOP has been significantly more enthusiastic about flapping their lips than actually governing. So this development deserves to be monitored. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/43 "2016-03-21T19:58:16Z")
What would be the point, anyway? Only a fool would think Eddie Munster has a prayer of beating Clinton this year, or even Sanders, for that matter. Would the GOP rather lose with Ryan as its candidate than with Trump as its candidate? Probably, but they can’t think the difference is worth splitting the party over. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/44 "2016-03-21T20:14:49Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > Hmmm. I thought Canadians were good at math. > > Ryan is a con man who uses magic asterisks (shout out to Krugman) to make his ridiculous budget proposals make self-proclaimed centrists think he’s serious. He’s not serious. He’s working within the constraints of a party that’s gone off the deep end. He can’t propose spending cuts of any sort without some faction getting its nose out of joint and freaking out, and he can’t propose tax increases without the other half going equally nuts. In the meantime, the side that opposes any tax increases makes spending cut demands that are completely devoid from the reality of what’s politically possible. And of course, none of them will accept budget deficits either. Gah. That was why he made his initial demand that he’d only take the job if he had the full support of the party behind him - a party which then abandoned that notion the minute they were faced with any kind of hard choice. So Ryan has tried and failed to muster the support he needs to pass a budget through to the Senate. Mind you, the Democrats have exactly the same problem in reverse, which is why they also failed to pass budgets. The entire political system in Washington is a mess. Ryan strikes me as one of the few sane ones, but there’s a serious limit on what he can accomplish. And I find it funny that many of the people here see him as the second coming of Ayn Rand, while the main complaint about him from Republicans is that he’s too moderate and a RINO squish. That gives you an idea of what the political environment in Washington is like right now. Maybe this is the only reason Trump is winning: Nobody can pin a philosophy on him because he just keeps contradicting himself over and over until you never know what he really thinks. That makes him a blank slate for projecting the voter’s anger without compromise. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/45 "2016-03-21T20:22:16Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What would be the point, anyway? Only a fool would think Eddie Munster has a prayer of beating Clinton this year, or even Sanders, for that matter. Would the GOP rather lose with Ryan as its candidate than with Trump as its candidate? Probably, but they can’t think the difference is worth splitting the party over. If Trump is the nominee it’s going to split the party anyway. The #NeverTrump people are serious, and there are many of them. And having Trump as the face of the Republican party will do a lot of damage. Not only that, but having Trump as the nominee may depress Republican turnout so much that they’ll lose the Senate and maybe even the House. That’s the conventional thinking, anyway. Frankly, I think the Republican Party’s only chance is to go to a contested convention with neither Trump nor Cruz having a majority of delegates, and with Cruz at least close enough that he could plausibly win on a second ballot without rules changes or other shenanigans. Otherwise, if Trump wins the Republicans are going to fracture, and if he’s ousted by back-room deals when the will of the Republican electorate clearly favors him, the Republicans will fracture anyway. But you shouldn’t be so happy about that, because if Trump can win the Republican nomination he might well win the general election by pulling a lot of support from Democrats. After all, the guy’s got a history of voting Democrat, he supports Planned Parenthood, he’s for single payer health care, etc. He’s much more credible as a Democratic candidate than as a Republican in many ways. So if he can win over disaffected Republicans with a squishy center-left message, just how many Democrats do you think he might be able to pull in? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/46 "2016-03-21T21:48:34Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > But you shouldn’t be so happy about that, because if Trump can win the Republican nomination he might well win the general election by pulling a lot of support from Democrats. Please promise us all on behalf of Soviet Canuckistan that if that happens, you won’t seal the border. But, it won’t. Trump could perhaps beat Sanders that way – perhaps – but never Clinton. No one to her left (which most of the base is, how do you think Sanders got this far) will ever vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/47 "2016-03-21T21:52:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … He’s the frontrunner among people not currently running… That is brilliant, Lewis Carroll/Marx Bros stuff. If it’s original, I have new-found respect for you. 🙂 It kind of reminds me of Bertrand Russell’s “who shaves the barber?” paradox. Of the people who aren’t running, who’s running the fastest? ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/48 "2016-03-21T23:20:39Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > He’s working within the constraints of a party that’s gone off the deep end… If he’s a serious person, maybe he should join the party that’s not off the deep end. > [@](#): > > …Mind you, the Democrats have exactly the same problem in reverse, which is why they also failed to pass budgets. Wow! What are the chances that both parties are exactly the same in reverse? Both sides really do it, I guess. One is crazy and can’t do math, so the other is the same. Such an amazing coincidence. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2016, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/49 "2016-03-21T23:47:51Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Mind you, the Democrats have exactly the same problem in reverse, which is why they also failed to pass budgets. Um, no, turn off Fox and try again. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2016, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/50 "2016-03-22T01:18:16Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Of course, he could always turn out to be less intelligent than I think he is. He never had that problem with me. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2016, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/51 "2016-03-22T04:59:11Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Of the people who aren’t running, who’s running the fastest? Not Paul Ryan. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2016, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/52 "2016-03-22T06:06:45Z")
Math: both sides don’t do it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2016, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/53 "2016-03-22T08:05:07Z")
> [@](#): > > He never had that problem with me. Yet. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/54 "2016-03-22T12:42:38Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Not Paul Ryan. The guy once ran a three-hour marathon with no training. He said so himself. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2016, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/55 "2016-03-22T22:50:39Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What would be the point, anyway? Only a fool would think \*\*Eddie Munster \*\*has a prayer of beating Clinton this year, or even Sanders, for that matter. Would the GOP rather lose with Ryan as its candidate than with Trump as its candidate? Probably, but they can’t think the difference is worth splitting the party over. Bolding mine. I don’t usually call folks names in these threads but that made me laugh out loud. Bravo. The perfect image of hapless plus weird. If the name’s original with you you’re even cooler than I thought. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/56 "2016-03-23T16:35:34Z")
[I’d say he’s definitely preparing to be the candidate.](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/paul-ryan-politics-civility) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/57 "2016-03-24T01:02:03Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Bolding mine. > > I don’t usually call folks names in these threads but that made me laugh out loud. Bravo. The perfect image of hapless plus weird. > > If the name’s original with you you’re even cooler than I thought. Not original, I think it got it from _The Daily Show_ or something. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/58 "2016-03-24T01:03:20Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > [I’d say he’s definitely preparing to be the candidate.](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/paul-ryan-politics-civility) He’s trying to talk like a grownup! Like **Hell** he’s preparing to be the candidate! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/59 "2016-03-24T03:35:54Z")
And Larry Wilmore just now said “Grandpa Munster Cruz.” And the bit worked, too. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2016, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713/60 "2016-03-24T13:58:53Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > There is no way anyone with half a brain jumps into this race as a sacrificial lamb for the establishment. Ryan knows he can’t win after the Trumpistas bail on the party if the nomination is taken away from him, why would he throw away his career for a chance at getting creamed by Hillary? > [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What would be the point, anyway? Only a fool would think Eddie Munster has a prayer of beating Clinton this year, or even Sanders, for that matter. Would the GOP rather lose with Ryan as its candidate than with Trump as its candidate? Probably, but they can’t think the difference is worth splitting the party over. From the traditionalist party perspective - Trump as nominee leaves them either rallying behind someone who they believe changes the very nature of what the party is or fighting against him (even if it is passive aggressively). Trump is to them an existential threat, perhaps even more in the unlikely victory than in the more likely loss. And he risks huge downticket negative impacts. Ryan will lose just as well and will result in a fractured party just as much, but in the divorce proceedings that follow they at least get to keep the house. From Ryan’s perspective the party dysfunctionality that is sure to follow a Trump general election campaign will make his Speakership even more doomed. He likely has no political future staying on in that role after this. Running a losing presidential bid that attempts to brand his position in the party as arguing for ideas and aspirations? May help a long term strategy that he imagines himself being central within. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/paul-ryans-republican-primary-campaign/749713.md?page=4)