# Peacenick says: "I'm for Bush". Time to stick a fork in Kerry? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 29, 2004, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600 "2004-09-29T02:33:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Orbifold](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/779978/32.png) [@Orbifold](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Orbifold)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2004, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600/21 "2004-09-29T23:22:48Z")
You want an example of Kerry appeal crossing party lines? [Dwight Eisenhower’s son](http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=44657), perhaps? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2004, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600/22 "2004-09-30T08:01:15Z")
> [@Weirddave](#): > > Hey, congratulations, it took you less than a day to come out with the accusation that this thread was exactly the opposite of what I specifically said it was in the OP, exactly as I predicted someone would. I will point out that I said this was one of SEVERAL such. Maybe you have clean motives, but do they all? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2004, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600/23 "2004-09-30T14:42:32Z")
Yes, Kerry is done. The truth is best extracted where money is on the line. Tradesports, which is an online futures-style betting house, Bush is trading at 68.5%, and Kerry at 32.5%. For the same reasons that DARPA wanted to create a terrorist futures market, these stats are probably the most accurate. People won’t delude themselves if money is involved. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2004, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600/24 "2004-09-30T15:27:30Z")
So, it is 5 weeks before the election and the bettors seem to have decided that Bush is about twice as likely to win as Kerry. That hardly qualifies as “done” in my book. I would agree that Bush probably has a slight advantage at the moment but not even close to an insurmountable one. Even if the bettors are a perfect signal for how things are at the moment, they aren’t fortune-tellers. They don’t know what events might actually transpire between now and election day. Chock another one up to blind faith in markets. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Scrivener](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@The\_Scrivener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Scrivener)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2004, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600/25 "2004-09-30T18:12:35Z")
The first image that came to mind when I saw the OP was the very-liberal actor Ron Silver addressing the RNC a month or so ago (so technically it’s old news, right?). That totally blew my mind at the time… ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2004, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600/26 "2004-09-30T22:29:33Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > So, it is 5 weeks before the election and the bettors seem to have decided that Bush is about twice as likely to win as Kerry. That hardly qualifies as “done” in my book. > > I would agree that Bush probably has a slight advantage at the moment but not even close to an insurmountable one. Even if the bettors are a perfect signal for how things are at the moment, they aren’t fortune-tellers. They don’t know what events might actually transpire between now and election day. > > Chock another one up to blind faith in markets. I used hyperbole because those with something to lose show a major disparity in opinion relative to those who don’t. And of course things will change; I assumed there was an implied _ceteris paribus_. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peacenick-says-im-for-bush-time-to-stick-a-fork-in-kerry/266600.md?page=1)