# Pennsylvania - Democratic side **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 12, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962 "2016-04-12T02:17:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/1 "2016-04-12T02:17:45Z")
Clinton is ahead by 16 in the RCP rolling average for this 4/26 race but it could get very interesting … mainly because of divergent views on fracking and the Democratic primary for Senate. Closed primary. Previous polls have shown strong support for fracking with tight regulations across the state but with some differences across party lines. Democrats in the state have been more supportive of a moratorium than Republicans … still in past [polls](https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2049) (2014 so not so fresh) the anti-fracking sentiment was not overwhelming: 48 to 41. Sanders is very vocal in his support for a complete moratorium on fracking. Clinton is [not quite](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/03/hillary-clinton-debate-fracking) for a complete moratorium. > [@](#): > > She’s against it “when any locality or any state is against it,” “when the release of methane or contamination of water is present,” and “unless we can require that anybody who fracks has to tell us exactly what chemicals they are using.” > > Until those conditions are met, “we’ve got to regulate everything that is currently underway, and we have to have a system in place that prevents further fracking.” > > “By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there will be many places in America where fracking will continue to take place,” she added. > > She’s against it “when any locality or any state is against it,” “when the release of methane or contamination of water is present,” and “unless we can require that anybody who fracks has to tell us exactly what chemicals they are using.” > > Until those conditions are met, “we’ve got to regulate everything that is currently underway, and we have to have a system in place that prevents further fracking.” > > “By the time we get through all of my conditions, I do not think there will be many places in America where fracking will continue to take place,” she added. But as that article goes on she had in the past placed less emphasis on the magnitude of regulation. Meanwhile fracking is also a big issue in the [Democratic Senate primary race](http://www.alleghenyfront.org/fracking-is-becoming-a-big-deal-in-the-democratic-senate-race/). Joe Sestak, [unloved](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/sestak-pa-primary-221644) by the national Democrats, is running against early Clinton endorser Kate McGinty (and a distant third Fetterman). McGinty is currently 10 points behind. Sestak is for a complete moratorium; McGinty is for tighter regulation. It makes for some interesting dynamics. Clinton’s “nuanced” answer will likely not play as well as Sanders clear unqualified anti-fracking position with Democrats in this closed primary, and it clearly is an issue of importance to these voters right now. Clinton is also motivated to help McGinty win both the primary and the the general. McGinty is endorsed by Obama. Distant third [Fetterman](http://www.thenation.com/article/the-bernie-inspired-candidate-for-senate-in-pennsylvania/) was an early Sanders endorser. > [@](#): > > If Bernie Sanders is elected president in November, he’ll need senators like John Fetterman to make the political revolution he talks about a reality. Fetterman, who endorsed Sanders long ago, remains a long shot. But if Sanders wants to show his insurgency has coattails—and his “Not me. Us” slogan means something—he could do a lot worse than inviting Fetterman on stage … In any case I think Sanders unqualified moratorium position will help him narrow that deficit over the next two weeks and Clinton will be having to parse her words carefully, reinforcing her belief in tight controls and supporting McGinty at the same time. It will put her in a defensive posture. I don’t think he would be able to turn it into the victory he needs, but it could result in him pulling up quite a bit by voting day. Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/2 "2016-04-12T02:39:20Z")
I know very little of Pennsylvania politics. All I do know is that, each time I’ve driven through the state, I was surprised at all the billboards supporting the fossil energy sector and mocking clean/green energy. That a less than stridently opposed stance to fracking would be a liability there seems odd to me. More to it, I’m skeptical that this will be “news” to the people of Pennsylvania and shift perceptions that much in the remaining couple weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/3 "2016-04-12T20:05:55Z")
Remember, we’re talking about Pennsylvania Democrats, here, not Pennsylvanians in general. Driving through the state, you’re mostly talking about the broad expanses of rural area, which are pretty strongly Republican. Most of the Democrats are in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/4 "2016-04-12T22:09:09Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I know very little of Pennsylvania politics. All I do know is that, each time I’ve driven through the state, I was surprised at all the billboards supporting the fossil energy sector and mocking clean/green energy. . I’m not going to pretend people here are more intelligent than Americans, because they’re not, and our neoliberal conservatives in charge detest green energy, and slashed it last year — although they wouldn’t dare disparage the concept and still have to make the right noises — but is this really a thing ? **Open** mocking of non-fossil fuel energy in American society ? I’m sure even the dumbest are aware that burnt fuel particulates aren’t a tonic to the lungs, and make Baby Jesus cry. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/5 "2016-04-12T22:20:34Z")
“The sun sets. The wind dies. Clean, cheap, plentiful, Pennsylvania coal.” “Mocking” is probably too strong, but the billboard quoted above certainly has little use for alternative energy sources. And while I’m not sure I’m quoting it exactly right I know the word “clean” is in there somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/6 "2016-04-12T22:23:20Z")
And I’ve seen some that were a lot ruder about it, too, though I can’t remember the wording. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2016, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/7 "2016-04-12T23:45:19Z")
I remember **Ulf’s** and also[this one](http://ecowatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/BigBillboard.jpg) linking Lady Gaga to clean energy (um… ok?) with the obvious message being “Clean energy is something stupid weirdo Hollywood people talk about” and I could swear we saw others but I wasn’t exactly keeping score at the time. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2016, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/8 "2016-04-13T01:16:56Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I know very little of Pennsylvania politics. All I do know is that, each time I’ve driven through the state, I was surprised at all the billboards supporting the fossil energy sector and mocking clean/green energy. That a less than stridently opposed stance to fracking would be a liability there seems odd to me. > > More to it, I’m skeptical that this will be “news” to the people of Pennsylvania and shift perceptions that much in the remaining couple weeks. Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama in the middle. - James Carville ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2016, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/9 "2016-04-13T01:23:22Z")
Pennsylvania is definitely a state that Sanders could take. Western PA is steel country and that vote will be dominated by Sanders, as will much of Central PA. The bigger question is how well Clinton can control Philadelphia. Clinton will not give the lead up easily as she enjoys overwhelming establishment support in PA. But the voters could surge for the Bern. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2016, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/10 "2016-04-17T19:07:22Z")
I was just reading up on voter registration for Pennsylvania. You have to register and declare a party at least 30 days prior to the election. Bernie has yet to win a closed primary so I think Hillary takes Pennsylvania. 538 shows a clear lead for Clinton as well. > **[Pa. Democratic Primary Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/pennsylvania-democratic/)** > > Polls and predictions for the 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic primary: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2016, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/11 "2016-04-17T21:14:33Z")
I would expect Sanders’ closed-primary handicap to diminish as the race goes on, though. It might have come as a surprise to independents in the early states that they couldn’t vote, but by now, everyone should have heard of the issue, and has a chance to deal with it in most states. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2016, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/12 "2016-04-17T23:00:51Z")
But [how](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-are-people-changing-their-party-affiliation-this-election-cycle/) have they, and others already previously registered, dealt with it? > [@CBS News 3/15/16](#): > > Since the beginning of the year, nearing 50,000 registered Democrats in Pennsylvania have switched to the Republican Party … > > … “It’s unclear whether voters are switching parties to vote sincerely or to vote strategically, but we do see evidence that they’re switching,” said Costas Panagopoulos, a professor at Yale University this year, who also teaches at Fordham University, and studies voter behavior. > > Because many Democrats might view Hillary Clinton as their likely nominee, he said they might choose to vote strategically to choose the weakest GOP opponent for her to face in the general election. It’s also possible voters are making the switch because they do find Trump, or what they see in the Republican race, more appealing. … > > … Based on data that is updated weekly, nearly 50,000 Democrats in the state have switched to the Republican Party and more than 25,000 Republicans have switched to being Democrats. As for independents, nearly 32,000 of them have registered as Democrats and nearly 25,000 independents have registered as Republicans. To give some context - in 2008 a total of about 2.3 million voted in the Democratic primary, and the race went Clinton +214K (+9.2%). Not sure what those numbers imply in this race. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-democratic-side/751962/13 "2016-04-23T03:29:17Z")
I just got back from my first Hillary presidential campaign rally in 8 years. It was fun, but I _really_ wish I could’ve gotten a seat. Also she was running late so people started cheering anytime there was any activity on the stage, including when her glass of water was brought out.