# Pennsylvania Primary - Let's get this party started! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 22, 2008, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461 "2008-04-22T21:49:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/121 "2008-04-23T12:17:06Z")
[QUOTE=spifflog] Let the spinning begin! [/QUOTE] It’s not spinning. Obama was never ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Bosstone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/22d042/32.png) [@Bosstone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosstone)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/122 "2008-04-23T12:27:36Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] I’m wondering if this isn’t going to be a problem for Democrats in the general election - If I were a democratic voter in PA, and I took the time to vote, and my candidate won the day by 10 points, and yet my own party yelled at me to shut up and go away because they don’t like my candidate, well… I might feel a little disenfranchised. [/QUOTE] That word has been slung about in this election cycle so much it’s starting to lose meaning. Pennsylvania’s been ‘disenfranchised’ about as much as the blue states were in 2004, as much as I am every cycle because I live in Arizona, and as much as a Republican presumably is in Massachusetts. _That_’s spin, that 55% of Pennsylvanian Democratic voters are going to feel ‘disenfranchised’ because their candidate likely won’t win. Edit: Yes, in a general election, 55% would normally be enough to carry the state, which is probably why Clinton feels the need to throw a celebration bash. It’s been known for rather a long time that this is a proportional system. Heck, that makes it even less likely that PA voters will feel disenfranchised: they’re responsible for Clinton picking up 10 more delegates. Those delegates just won’t matter set in the national context. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/123 "2008-04-23T13:21:17Z")
The [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html) takes Hillary to the woodshed for her campaign tactics: > [@](#): > > The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it. > > Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election. > > If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead. > > [snip] > > By staying on the attack and not engaging Mr. Obama on the substance of issues like terrorism, the economy and how to organize an orderly exit from Iraq, Mrs. Clinton does more than just turn off voters who don’t like negative campaigning. She undercuts the rationale for her candidacy that led this page and others to support her: that she is more qualified, right now, to be president than Mr. Obama. The editorial also chides Obama for rising to her bait, but most of their rebuke is directed at Clinton. Th editorial concludes with a warning: > [@](#): > > It is getting to be time for the superdelegates to do what the Democrats had in mind when they created superdelegates: settle a bloody race that cannot be won at the ballot box. Mrs. Clinton once had a big lead among the party elders, but has been steadily losing it, in large part because of her negative campaign. If she is ever to have a hope of persuading these most loyal of Democrats to come back to her side, let alone win over the larger body of voters, she has to call off the dogs. I daresay one hound she should call off is the Big Dog. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/124 "2008-04-23T13:44:29Z")
IMHO, it’s just about time for the superdelegates to settle it. No later than the week after NC/IN, since everything after that is pretty trivial. The Democratic Party got itself into this situation, by creating a system by which a nominee needs to win a 62.5% supermajority of the pledged delegates to win without the supers, i.e. any remotely close race would have to be decided by the superdelegates. We have a somewhat close race - one with a clear leader who’s not going to win that 62.5% supermajority. Your move, supers. This is what you signed on for. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/125 "2008-04-23T14:10:48Z")
Another editorial from Dick Morris; [Too Little, Too Late](http://www.nypost.com/seven/04232008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/too_little__too_late_107751.htm) > [@](#): > > Because of the Democratic Party’s arcane proportional-representation rules, her win stands to give her a net gain of 10 to 15 delegates when all is counted. That means that Barack Obama will fall from a lead of 161 in elected delegates to about 145 or so. Big deal. > > The primaries coming up in the next two weeks - Indiana and North Carolina - are likely to give Obama back a goodly portion of those delegates. By the time all the primaries have been held, after June 3, there is no doubt that Obama will lead by more than 100 elected delegates, and likely 150. From there, it will be an easy route to the nomination… > > … Over the next two weeks, we’ll be treated to much hoopla about how the Democratic race is once again up for grabs. Then, on May 5, Hillary’s hopes will be dashed once more. > > And then? After the votes are counted in all the primaries, look for the Gang of Four - Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and John Edwards - to join together and issue a challenge to the superdelegates: Make up your minds. > > Together, they’ll probably demand that these appointed delegates commit to one candidate or the other by mid June. And since the primaries will have lifted Obama over 1,900 delegates (elected and super), he’ll only need about 100 more, out of about 300 uncommitted superdelegates. > > Their hands forced, enough superdelegates will go to Obama to put him over the top - he’ll be the candidate. > > That’s all, folks. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/126 "2008-04-23T14:27:20Z")
[QUOTE=spifflog] Let the spinning begin! [/QUOTE] The spin is that this is any kind of significant victory for Hillary. She was leading by 20 points three weeks ago and Obama closed it to single digits. Her gain in pledged delegates will be negligible and Obama will win them back in NC anyway. She did not win by a large enough margin to persuade the supers to supercede the eventual popular vote, delegate count and states won, and she _never_ had a chance to win the nom by any other metric, so regardless of what we’ll hear from Hillary and from the media, this is basically a win for Obama. To use a football analogy, he held her to a field goal when she was behind by two touchdowns. Now he gets the ball in NC, and he’ll get that FG right back. When the media tries to spin it as still being a contest, think of them as Al Michaels and John Madden telling you “Don’t go anywhere folks, this game is far from over,” which is what announcers always say when it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/127 "2008-04-24T03:06:19Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] The singular of ‘anecdote’ is _definitely_ not data. When come back, bring data. [/QUOTE] Okay. [This site provides the following numbers from 2004:](http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42000.html) Pennsylvania median household income $43,714, which compares well with the national average of $44,334 - especially when the average home is cheaper than it is nationally by more than $22,000. The poverty rate is lower than the national average as well. So a lack of money across the board, as you seemed to imply, doesn’t seem to be the whole story. Are there other factors in play? It seems so. [This site](http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/migrate/2000pob.html) links tables showing geographic mobility of the US population (2000 numbers). Nationally 60% of the country lives in the state where they were born. Here in Virginia where I now live it is around 52%. Pennsylvania is way at the top end of the rankings with a native-born percentage of 77.7%. Only Louisiana is higher. Anyone studying Louisiana would assume right off that people stayed there for cultural as well as economic reasons. I think we have to assume that about Pennsylvania as well - the state is rather rich in subcultures. Certainly my folks wouldn’t be happy living anywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/128 "2008-04-24T03:08:19Z")
[QUOTE=Mr. Moto] I think we have to assume that about Pennsylvania as well - the state is rather rich in subcultures. Certainly my folks wouldn’t be happy living anywhere else. [/QUOTE] Interesting. But how does that explain the disproportionately older population? Are young folks less attached to the cultural aspects? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/129 "2008-04-24T03:51:40Z")
You have to distinguish in Pennsylvania (and other places) between those there who aren’t leaving for anything and those who are open to leaving. And in Pennsylvania, thirty years of economic dislocations have chased a good many of these people away already. These hit certain areas of the state disproportionately hard, and left a very elderly population by comparison behind. Pittsburgh for one embodies this. [This series of stories in the Post-Gazette is pretty comprehensive on the subject.](http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04361/432153.stm) ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/130 "2008-04-24T03:56:49Z")
[QUOTE=Mr. Moto] And in Pennsylvania, thirty years of economic dislocations have chased a good many of these people away already. These hit certain areas of the state disproportionately hard, and left a very elderly population by comparison behind. Pittsburgh for one embodies this. [/QUOTE] I’m honestly confused. That’s what I took **RTF** to be saying–the elderly were left behind when younger people got chased away. Where is your disagreement? ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/131 "2008-04-24T10:40:27Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] I’m honestly confused. That’s what I took **RTF** to be saying–the elderly were left behind when younger people got chased away. Where is your disagreement? [/QUOTE] His statement was that young people got chased away but that old people can’t afford to move. Frankly, I think he has that somewhat backwards. Older workers tend to be established in their jobs and more rooted to their communities, and retirees have an income pool that they can spend anywhere. Many of them find no reason to leave a Pennsylvania they’ve always lived in, and where their friends, family, and churches are - even if they have money. They have houses and golf courses in PA too - they’re not limited to Florida and the Carolinas. Younger people starting out tend to be the ones without money. Like I said, 77.7 percent of the people living in PA were born there. Now a lot feeds this - not a lot of people move to PA, the people who left obviously are counted in other states, etc. But the fact that PA is so far on the top end of the scale here indicates a cultural tendency to stay. Fellow PA dopers can back me up on this one. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/132 "2008-04-24T21:10:43Z")
[QUOTE=Mr. Moto] Okay. [This site provides the following numbers from 2004:](http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42000.html) Pennsylvania median household income $43,714, which compares well with the national average of $44,334 - especially when the average home is cheaper than it is nationally by more than $22,000. The poverty rate is lower than the national average as well. [/quote] Sorry, but just any old data won’t do. It has to be data that actually bears on the issue at hand. We were talking about _small towns_ in Pennsylvania. Averaging in people living on the Main Line doesn’t produce relevant numbers. > [@](#): > > Are there other factors in play? It seems so. [This site](http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/migrate/2000pob.html) links tables showing geographic mobility of the US population (2000 numbers). Nationally 60% of the country lives in the state where they were born. Here in Virginia where I now live it is around 52%. Pennsylvania is way at the top end of the rankings with a native-born percentage of 77.7%. Only Louisiana is higher. > > Anyone studying Louisiana would assume right off that people stayed there for cultural as well as economic reasons. I think we have to assume that about Pennsylvania as well - the state is rather rich in subcultures. Certainly my folks wouldn’t be happy living anywhere else. You should know that you are either reading the table wrong, or understanding it incorrectly. You’re looking at (people born in the state who currently live there)/(people currently living in the state). What that really tells you about is in-migration, not out-migration. The larger the percentage born in the state, the smaller the proportion of people who have moved in. What you’d need is (people born in the state who currently live there)/(people born in the state). That would tell you how many people _leave_. (ETA: or, rather, _don’t_ leave. The ones that leave are the complement, of course.) If Pennsylvania is near the top of the heap in _that_ ratio, that would back up your assertion, at least for Pennsylvania as a whole. (Since, once again, we’re talking about _small towns_ in Pennsylvania.) ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/133 "2008-04-24T21:31:52Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] To use a football analogy, he held her to a field goal when she was behind by two touchdowns. Now he gets the ball in NC, and he’ll get that FG right back. When the media tries to spin it as still being a contest, think of them as Al Michaels and John Madden telling you “Don’t go anywhere folks, this game is far from over,” which is what announcers always say when it’s over. [/QUOTE] Then she goes in to attempt to break the quarterbacks arm in the final minute, so that the opposing team will lose the championship game next week, and she’ll be better positioned for next year’s season… (cynical? Me? No, why do you ask?) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/134 "2008-04-24T21:44:20Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] f Pennsylvania is near the top of the heap in _that_ ratio, that would back up your assertion, at least for Pennsylvania as a whole. (Since, once again, we’re talking about _small towns_ in Pennsylvania.) [/QUOTE] JFTR, Pennsylvania’s 17th out of 50 states and D.C. in this ratio, behind such culturally distinctive states as California and Arizona. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461/135 "2008-04-24T22:00:56Z")
Oops, 18th. Missed a state. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pennsylvania-primary-lets-get-this-party-started/446461.md?page=6)