I don’t agree that whichever way Justice Castille votes will prove much of anything about the wisdom of vote ID, whether the current approach of courts to facial voter challenges makes sense, or which legal arguments are most faithful to the Pennsylvania Constitution. If your position is limited solely to observing that the state courts permit this law, then it should be obvious that you’ll have to wait to hear how Justice Castille votes before staking that position.
Here’s my point, spelled out a bit:
Our federal system was set up such that states by and large determine whether and how they will allow their citizens to vote. We’ve made modifications at the federal level by constitutional amendment over time. If states choose to have their citizens vote to determine how the state’s electors will act in the electoral college, then they cannot disenfranchise only the black voters. Or the women. Or the 19-year-olds. Under the Fourteenth Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause, they cannot disenfranchise or even make it harder for anyone to vote for reasons disconnected with the person’s qualifications to vote (which includes ensuring that the correct person is voting). Like other laws analyzed under the Equal Protection Clause, those regulations are permitted but must be proportional to the legitimate need addressed.
That’s as far as the U.S. Constitution takes us. But state constitutions are, by design, where the real action on voting is supposed to be. There’s every reason for individual states to balance things differently than the Supreme Court. For one, and this point should be familiar to conservatives,* this is the state’s domain*. It is exactly consistent with how the constitutional order was created for state’s constitutional rules about how voting is set up to be more restrictive (i.e., less permissive of legislation regulating voting) than the federal standard.
Moreover, the federal protection for voting is chiefly concerned with equality. Everyone’s vote must be treated equally, and restrictions on voting must not treat anyone unfairly. But the state provisions are about the right to vote itself, not the equal protection of it. Because of that, the analysis is properly more about whether a particular law infringes on each individual’s right, and less about whether the needs of others (voters who want to be more confident in their vote, or whatever) are sufficiently important and legitimate. It’s the difference between asking whether punishment is cruel and unusual and asking whether that punishment is applied to everyone equally and responds to a legitimate need.
A third reason is that the text is different, and so is the historical understanding and history of that text, for those jurists concerned with such things.
So you have a legal provision that occurs in a structurally different context, with a different conceptual underpinning, embodied in different text with a different history. Whatever your philosophy on how cases should be decided, you cannot possibly believe in good faith that the Supreme Court’s ruling in *Crawford *is anything more than an interesting suggestion about how a different but related legal problem has been addressed.