# Peyton out of Indy! Or: Colts ready to press their Luck **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 6, 2012, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987 "2012-03-06T23:54:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/21 "2012-03-07T08:09:18Z")
The ideal situation would have been for Manning to mentor Luck and shift into a player/coach position. Manning’s salary and that huge $28 million roster bonus made that impossible. It was just too much to expect Manning to change roles on the team and take a big pay cut. Instead he’ll probably sign with another team for significantly less than what his Colts contract paid. Whether he can ever be a dependable starter again is very much a big question. He’s had 14 great seasons and headed to the Hall of Fame. It would be a shame to see him on a second rate team getting pounded week after week like Favre did with the Jets. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/22 "2012-03-07T13:47:05Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > As a 49ers fan, I can only hope they’re a dark horse to get him. I would not be surprised at all if he does end up there and I’m surprised by media types who pooh-pooh the idea. It’s a much better and more realistic destination than Houston. You guys are around $23M under the cap now, maybe more with rolling over 2011 space. Isn’t Alex Smith a FA now? Why wouldn’t you go get Manning? Even if he really is washed up, you still have Kaepernick (Who I thought was going to get the team last year, around Week 10.) You’ve plenty of salary to go chase a good FA WR, or see if Wayne wants to follow Manning to SF. Houston, OTOH, already has a Top-8 to 10 QB, depending on who’s being asked, no salary cap room—it’ll be difficult to keep both Myers and Brisiel—and I’m not set on giving the team to Yates, should it all not work out with Manning. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/23 "2012-03-07T14:10:30Z")
> [@Sateryn76](#): > > Indy is so stupid. This is such a bad move - they’ll get Luck, still have an old team that has been trained to work with Manning for 14 years, and sink into mediocrity. What team? They have a new coach. A new offensive coordinator. They’ve recycled RBs for the last 5 years. Reggie Wayne is leaving. Saturday will probably be released as well. Who, exactly, are you talking about when you say that this team has been with Manning for 14? > [@](#): > > I mean, does the organization really think that they can get some QB phenom fresh out of college, drop him into a team that has been totally geared toward Manning for over a decade, and it’s just gonna work? That’s exactly what they think. It’s a pretty established plan that’s worked many times across the NFL. > [@](#): > > there is certainly no guarantee that Luck or anyone else has the stones to compete on a professional level. This is pretty much the only thing you said that’s correct. There’s also no guarantee that Peyton Manning will be able to do it either, and that gamble costs the Colts $28 million PER YEAR. > [@](#): > > Unless there’s something bad we don’t know about Manning’s arm at this point He’s not allowed anyone access to his workout sessions. Is there anything GOOD we know about Manning’s arm at this point? > [@](#): > > And, I bet that he would have been willing to reduce or even forgo his bonus to stay. Huh? Seriously - this doesn’t make a lick of sense. You say you’re a fan - have you been paying any attention at all for the last 8 months? First off, the $28 million isn’t a bonus - it’s his contract. Second, Irsay and Manning have been going back and forth behind the scenes for months trying to come up with a compromise. > [@](#): > > I really don’t get this Well, make that two things correct… ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/24 "2012-03-07T14:17:40Z")
\*Whoops - the $28m is a bonus. Still hits the salary cap though, right? Fun fact: Since Manning was drafted, Jim Irsay has paid him $0.20 every second. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/25 "2012-03-07T14:23:53Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > That’s exactly what they think. It’s a pretty established plan that’s worked many times across the NFL. It has? A vast majority of rookie QB’s struggle in their first year, sometimes into their second, and/or never develop into an elite QB. Manning, if healthy, is an elite QB. I understand the move from the Colts perspective, I just think it’s the wrong one. They are a rebuilding team, but I think rebuilding a team is a ton easier with a great veteran presence. Having Manning there to teach/mentor/help Luck and the rest of the rookies would be a huge benefit, one I think would be worth the money spent. Add in the fact that Manning could help the team into the playoffs the next two years while Luck likely won’t, I think it would have been a better decision to keep him for a couple years. It’s not like this was an easy decision either way. I think Manning could be the piece to help a playoff contending team to win the Super Bowl. I was shocked to hear that the 49ers aren’t interested. I figured there, the Texans, and the Jets would be ideal spots for him to make the most for himself and the team for the last few years. ---
**Author:** ![Death\_of\_Rats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a6a055/32.png) [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/26 "2012-03-07T14:34:24Z")
> [@Sateryn76](#): > > Leaving Luck aside, why the assumption that Manning wouldn’t do well? He’s old, he’s busted and at the best he is maybe 60-80% of what he was, but the reports on his arm and recovery have been sketchy at best. > [@Sateryn76](#): > > Excellent point - I got a little excited there 😃 > > I bet we can find a way to get rid of him…🆒 He could always move the team to LA! 🙂 > [@Munch](#): > > \*Whoops - the $28m is a bonus. Still hits the salary cap though, right? > > Fun fact: Since Manning was drafted, Jim Irsay has paid him $0.20 every second. Correct. The $28 mil is a roster bonus and hits the cap all at once. On top of this he gets his base pay and any performance bonuses for the year. In effect, keeping Manning for one year would cost Indy almost as much as Luck’s entire rookie contract. For an old guy who may or may not be able to throw any more and who is one solid hit away from a nursing home. ETA: Add to this the factor that Indy would have to pay the $28 before they get a solid answer on whether or not he can even play. Remember HIS doctors say he can the team medicl staff has not signed off on it, so they could pay him the money and have him out for med reasons without ever even taking a snap. Now the have lost Manning and lost a chance to make moves in FA. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/27 "2012-03-07T14:43:32Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > It has? A vast majority of rookie QB’s struggle in their first year, sometimes into their second, and/or never develop into an elite QB. Manning, if healthy, is an elite QB. I said many, not majority. Plenty of teams succeed with good-not-great QBs, but that’s because they’re strong in most every other aspect on the field. The Colts are pretty abyssmal across the board. They have plenty of draft picks, and plenty of cap space. Drafting Luck is the easiest choice they’ll make in the next 5 years. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/28 "2012-03-07T15:01:41Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > I said many, not majority. Plenty of teams succeed with good-not-great QBs, but that’s because they’re strong in most every other aspect on the field. The Colts are pretty abyssmal across the board. They have plenty of draft picks, and plenty of cap space. Drafting Luck is the easiest choice they’ll make in the next 5 years. Of course they draft Luck. I didn’t think that was the issue. And I think he’s a fantastic prospect. But I think the Colts best chances of success comes with Manning there for a couple more years while Luck and the new players learn the NFL game. I think throwing a rookie QB into a starting role on a “abyssmal” team would be a huge mistake, even if that rookie QB is Luck. Manning immediately makes the team better and a playoff contender (again, if healthy), while still helping the rookies develop. The $28 million is the huge sticking point, and Irsay decided that was too much risk. I think he’s wrong, but, again, this isn’t a no brainer and it is, after all, his team. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/29 "2012-03-07T15:10:34Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Hmmm…the Saints are in a franchise tag dispute with Brees, and are getting tons of negative publicity every day because of the bounty scandal. Peyton Manning, son of Archie Manning, who I believe ranks third in all time popularity in New Orleans behind Jesus Christ and the Junkyard Dog, becomes available. I wonder… It would be a nice story, but of course makes no sense at all for the Saints. It’s possible to make a case that last-time-he-was-healthy Manning is an upgrade to Brees, but you can’t say it would be very much of an upgrade. And Brees is, you know, healthy, last time we checked, and younger. Now if Peyton decides to go into coaching… > [@aceplace57](#): > > It would be a shame to see him on a second rate team getting pounded week after week like Favre did with the Jets. Yeah, um, that was, just horrible watching Favre’s ego get pounded week and after week.. ..WARNING ! THE NATIONAL EMOTION SERVICE HAS JUST ISSUED A SCHADENFREUDE ALERT… THE DANGER IS PARTICULARLY SEVERE FOR FANS OF NON-COLTS AFC SOUTH TEAMS, NEW ENGLAND, GREEN BAY, AND ALL TEAMS MENTIONED AS POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS FOR PEYTON MANNING… THIS IS A SCHADENFREUDE WATCH. NO ACTUAL SCHADENFREUDE HAS BEEN OBSERVED, BUT CONDITIONS CREATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF IT ARISING… [Not that Manning has done nearly as much to make himself loathed as Favre. I like watching him lose, but don’t really want to seem him hurt] ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/30 "2012-03-07T15:10:34Z")
> [@](#): > > But I think the Colts best chances of success comes with Manning there for a couple more years while Luck and the new players learn the NFL game. Absolutely - that would have been ideal. But I see how very difficult that would have been for the Colts to organize - they have a LOT of holes to fill, and need the cap space to do it. For a long time everyone in Indy thought that Manning would just take a pay cut. I mean, why wouldn’t he want to stay? But the chances of him succeeding here, even fully healthy, are really slim. There’s no infrastructure left on the team, and there’s been zero indication from Manning as to how well he’s healing. ---
**Author:** ![Laggard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de053/32.png) [@Laggard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laggard)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/31 "2012-03-07T15:28:43Z")
As mentioned, Indy needs to develop their team. No team should ever be as bad as they were without their starting QB. Look at GB. Rodgers sits out a game, Flynn comes in and throws for six touchdowns and 400 yards. ---
**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/32 "2012-03-07T15:38:27Z")
> [@furt](#): > > For reference: > > Marino: Last good season at 35. > Fouts: Last good season at 34. > Unitas: Last good season at 34. > Aikman: Last good season at 33. > Favre: Six seasons after age 35; only good in two of them. > Montana: Had a good season at 38, then retired. > Elway: Had a good season at 38, then retired. > > Mind you, in all of the above “good season” just means above-average. Almost none of those guys were producing at a top level when they were over 36. I guess you can call getting to the NFC Championship a “good season” for a just “above-average” quarterback not producing at a top level over 36. :dubious: I mean, I’m not really a huge Favre fan, but saying that he wasn’t producing at a top level in 2010 when he was what? 40? is a little disingenuous. Sure, his next year sucked, as did the one previous, but he was pretty stellar that year. I kind of think it’s ludicrous of Indy to let Manning go. The Packers gave the league the blueprint for developing an outstanding quarterback: let him come up behind the starter for a couple years to learn the system and really gain confidence. I don’t care how “NFL-ready” Luck is, he’s still going to be surprised by the speed and quickness in the NFL. Indy could give him a year, at least, behind a hall-of-fame QB and that would make a huge difference, IMO. But they won’t. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/33 "2012-03-07T15:48:09Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > Absolutely - that would have been ideal. But I see how very difficult that would have been for the Colts to organize - they have a LOT of holes to fill, and need the cap space to do it. For a long time everyone in Indy thought that Manning would just take a pay cut. That’s what I thought for the longest time. Manning would agree to stretch that roster bonus over a few years, and the Colts would keep him. Even when things got ugly (Irsay strikes me as a dick), I figured they’d work it out, but they never did. It’s kinda sad, but both sides are to blame. I think the Colts are in for a long rebuilding, made much longer without Manning’s presence though. If nothing else, it adds a bit more drama to the sport and gives us something to talk about. And in these long months of non-football, I need that. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/34 "2012-03-07T15:53:28Z")
I was surprised to read Hamlet’s quote above, “I was shocked to hear that the 49ers aren’t interested,” and so I went about trying to source it. [Per SI](http://tracking.si.com/2012/03/07/report-san-francisco-49ers-not-interested-in-peyton-manning/): > [@](#): > > Despite the urging of the former star wide receiver Jerry Rice, the San Francisco 49ers will not attempt to sign quarterback Peyton Manning, according to [NFL.com](http://NFL.com). > The 49ers, instead, are intent on re-signing Alex Smith. A contract for Smith has already been placed on the table by San Francisco, sources have told [NFL.com](http://NFL.com). Smith has the same agent as Manning, Tom Condon. I can only imagine the 49ers aren’t trusting that Manning can make it back to near his previous form, because I can’t otherwise imagine why you’d give a new contract to Alex Smith, rather than kick the tires on Manning. For cryin’ out loud, you already have your QB of the future (Kaepernick), who’ll be ready to start in a year or two. My understanding is that he could start _now_ and be effective, if you needed him to. Why are you trying to resign a QB who’s [above average at best](http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb)? ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/35 "2012-03-07T15:58:31Z")
> [@Snickers](#): > > …I don’t care how “NFL-ready” Luck is, he’s still going to be surprised by the speed and quickness in the NFL. Indy could give him a year, at least, behind a hall-of-fame QB and that would make a huge difference, IMO. But they won’t. I’ve said it before here, and I’ll be happy to be proven wrong, but I think Luck will get absolutely killed behind that patchwork O-line next year. Painter was by all accounts horrible, and Collins’s best years were half a decade ago, but I thought they got absolutely murdered behind that line last year. Although, when I look at the O-line stats for pass protection, [Indy only gave up a sack on 6.9% of the snaps](http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol), which was average. Sure looked different in the few games I saw them play though. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/36 "2012-03-07T16:20:48Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > I’ve said it before here, and I’ll be happy to be proven wrong, but I think Luck will get absolutely killed behind that patchwork O-line next year. Painter was by all accounts horrible, and Collins’s best years were half a decade ago, but I thought they got absolutely murdered behind that line last year. Although, when I look at the O-line stats for pass protection, [Indy only gave up a sack on 6.9% of the snaps](http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol), which was average. Sure looked different in the few games I saw them play though. The average sack numbers were offset a bit by the number of penalties they gave up protecting the QB. They ranked 3rd in the NFL (according to pro football focus) in penalties. Add in the fact they were ranked #11 in QB hits (as opposed to sacks), and I don’t think the sack total numbers were too indicative of how bad they were. Add in their poor rushing rankings, and it’s a recipe for disaster. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/37 "2012-03-07T17:14:42Z")
> [@Snickers](#): > > I guess you can call getting to the NFC Championship a “good season” for a just “above-average” quarterback not producing at a top level over 36. :dubious: Which Favre actually did twice – in 2007 for the Packers (at age 38) and in 2009 for the Vikings (at age 40). Those two seasons account for two of his four highest QB ratings over his career (and 2009 was his all-time best rating), so I agree, they’re something better than just “above average”. That said, Favre is a pretty significant outlier in the discussion of productivity among older QBs. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/38 "2012-03-07T17:20:25Z")
According to Mike and Mike this morning, Manning has said he would consider an incentive based contract with less guaranteed money, so some team might not actually be taking that big a risk. Especially if that team doesn’t really have a good QB option. The Colts, on the other hand, are dumb. They are not a young team. They do not have the pieces to allow Luck to succeed immediately. I predict they are in for a few painful rebuilding years. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/39 "2012-03-07T17:23:45Z")
They had some painful years at the start of Manning’s career, too. Their calculation may be that even if they can keep most of this team together, it’ll be falling apart by the time Luck is really hitting his stride, so it’s better to get it all over with now. On the other hand they’ve been very successful in evaluating talent over the years and they’ve also dumped their braintrust. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2012, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987/40 "2012-03-07T17:31:11Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Which Favre actually did twice – in 2007 for the Packers (at age 38) and in 2009 for the Vikings (at age 40). Those two seasons account for two of his four highest QB ratings over his career (and 2009 was his all-time best rating), so I agree, they’re something better than just “above average”. > > That said, Favre is a pretty significant outlier in the discussion of productivity among older QBs. Warren Moon had good years at 39 and 41 (and was okay at 38 and probably better than he looked at 37 considering how the Oilers cratered once he left). But definitely another outlier. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/peyton-out-of-indy-or-colts-ready-to-press-their-luck/614987.md?page=3)