# Pick the Republican team (P and VP) most likely to succeed in '16 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 30, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402 "2015-08-30T16:30:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/41 "2015-08-31T15:09:20Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Teabaggers adore Walker. You don’t get it. The TPers do fine in local elections. They do TERRIBLE in national races. They adored Chrstine “I am not a witch” O’Donnell too. In fact, the GOP would have probably won the Senate in 2010 if the TPers didn’t play such a critical role in bumping out more reasonable candidates for whack-jobs like O’Donnell. Remember, this thread is about winning in the general election-- not who might win in a few primaries. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/42 "2015-08-31T15:26:31Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You don’t get it. The TPers do fine in local elections. They do TERRIBLE in national races. They adored Chrstine “I am not a witch” O’Donnell too. In fact, the GOP would have probably won the Senate in 2010 if the TPers didn’t play such a critical role in bumping out more reasonable candidates for whack-jobs like O’Donnell. > > Remember, this thread is about winning in the general election-- not who might win in a few primaries. I’m not so sure. Let’s say they nominate Walker. The base (Tea Party + religious right + anti-government) will come out in droves. Let’s say they nominate Bush. These groups will still vote for Bush, but without enthusiasm. They’ll be more likely to sit it out. So I think the question is do you want to turn out everybody that’s already in your tent or do you want to risk losing some in the tent to apathy in return for luring some outside the tent? I think it’s an open question with no clear answer. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/43 "2015-08-31T15:36:16Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I’m not so sure. Let’s say they nominate Walker. The base (Tea Party + religious right + anti-government) will come out in droves. Let’s say they nominate Bush. These groups will still vote for Bush, but without enthusiasm. They’ll be more likely to sit it out. So I think the question is do you want to turn out everybody that’s already in your tent or do you want to risk losing some in the tent to apathy in return for luring some outside the tent? I think it’s an open question with no clear answer. Let me walk you thru this. The elections are determined, in large part, by the few undecided folks in the middle. TPers often scare the shit out of such voters and put them in the Democratic camp. The GOP had a very safe, almost sure shot at keeping the Senator for Delaware. But he got ousted in the primary by the TPer’s darling, who lost to the Democrat in the general election that fall. TPers don’t play well in national elections. That has proven itself multiple times in the recent past. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/44 "2015-08-31T15:48:07Z")
One question I always have, who would teabaggers vote for if not the Moderate Republican? Sure some may go off the reservation and vote for some wacko right-wing independent but the Pub would more than make up for it by picking up some moderates and Libertarians. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/45 "2015-08-31T15:53:32Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > One question I always have, who would teabaggers vote for if not the Moderate Republican? Sure some may go off the reservation and vote for some wacko right-wing independent but the Pub would more than make up for it by picking up some moderates and Libertarians. I don’t know if their thinking is backed up by reality, but some freeper and freeper-like voters think that they just didn’t show up in 2012 to vote because they couldn’t stomach Romney. So, not switching, but not voting. I think it’s true that fewer people voted, but I don’t know if it was fewer Republican leaners or fewer overall. ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/46 "2015-08-31T15:54:37Z")
It will be 2 people that aren’t even being considered right now. We are starting these elections way too early, Trump is a flash in the pan and people will be sick of him by next year. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/47 "2015-08-31T16:06:21Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > Like that would be a problem?? Just “donate” some of the campaign funds to a “housing for the needy” cause. Bingo. Rubio, welcome to Tennesee! 😃 Talk about a wasted opportunity - there is _no way_ the Republicans lose Tennessee. Rubio’s better off moving to a swing state or at least a state that could conceivably be in play in the next decade. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/48 "2015-08-31T16:07:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Let me walk you thru this. The elections are determined, in large part, by the few undecided folks in the middle. TPers often scare the shit out of such voters and put them in the Democratic camp. The GOP had a very safe, almost sure shot at keeping the Senator for Delaware. But he got ousted in the primary by the TPer’s darling, who lost to the Democrat in the general election that fall. > > TPers don’t play well in national elections. That has proven itself multiple times in the recent past. To be sure, O’Donnell cost Castle a pretty good shot at the Senate. Angle gave Reid his only chance at keeping his seat. But these are both blue states and Tea’ers shouldn’t win there. How a TPer would do in a national race is still unproven. I think they’d carry the same states you’d expect a generic Republican to win. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/49 "2015-08-31T16:12:52Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > To be sure, O’Donnell cost Castle a pretty good shot at the Senate. Angle gave Reid his only chance at keeping his seat. But these are both blue states and Tea’ers shouldn’t win there. How a TPer would do in a national race is still unproven. I think they’d carry the same states you’d expect a generic Republican to win. The EC plays against the GOP as it is. They can’t afford to lose any swing states. ---
**Author:** ![Stoneburg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/df705f/32.png) [@Stoneburg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoneburg)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/50 "2015-08-31T16:20:47Z")
Sorry but Reagan/Jesus…? What the fuck? How does Jesus end up as VP? He has more name recognition, higher approval rating AND he’s older. Of course he does have a criminal record… ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/51 "2015-08-31T16:21:05Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Not a whoosh - i was thinking of the Leiberman precedent. I also wasn’t aware he wasn’t seeking re-election - didn’t see anything in the wiki article on him about it? Florida has a law that someone cannot appear on the same ballot for two offices. Apparently, Rubio wasn’t interested in attempting to pull off the shenanigans Paul did in Kentucky (which has the same law), and decided to give up his Senate seat. He’s stated that he won’t run even if he withdraws from the presidential race in time to get on the ballot for Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/52 "2015-08-31T16:59:59Z")
Interesting - thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/53 "2015-08-31T17:20:05Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > So… perfectly plausible then? The Republicans are willing to do anything to avoid sending the message that they don’t respect women voters. Anything, that is, short of actually respecting women voters. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/54 "2015-08-31T17:37:26Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The Republicans are willing to do anything to avoid sending the message that they don’t respect women voters. Anything, that is, short of actually respecting women voters. They need to read Bill Maher’s: _Guide to Those Mysterious Voters Who are Not Men._ ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/55 "2015-08-31T17:42:28Z")
Elections are decided by two factors: Who can sway more of the middle, and who can pull in bigger turnout from their base. Tea party candidates certainly do some harm in the middle, but they also increase base turnout. Is this enough to offset the losses in the middle (and, perhaps, increased turnout on the other side)? Sometimes. And a running mate moving to a different state isn’t going to do anything to turn voters from that state, and might even turn them away if they view the candidate as a carpet-bagging outsider. If you’re going to do that, then, it’s better to move to a safe state rather than a battleground. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/56 "2015-09-01T15:53:45Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Elections are decided by two factors: Who can sway more of the middle, and who can pull in bigger turnout from their base. Tea party candidates certainly do some harm in the middle, but they also increase base turnout. Is this enough to offset the losses in the middle (and, perhaps, increased turnout on the other side)? Sometimes. > > And a running mate moving to a different state isn’t going to do anything to turn voters from that state, and might even turn them away if they view the candidate as a carpet-bagging outsider. If you’re going to do that, then, it’s better to move to a safe state rather than a battleground. Somehow Dick Cheney’s “move” to Wyoming didn’t cost them that state. I’m coming of the opinion that the middle doesn’t exist anymore, winning elections is about mobilizing your base and demobilizing the opposition’s. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/57 "2015-09-01T16:09:01Z")
That’s how it’s been done the last few elections, but it seems to me that it’s the easy way out and does nothing to build a real mandate. Ideally, you want to mobilize your base AND win swing voters, and even attract new voters. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2015, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/58 "2015-09-01T17:45:31Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > They need to read Bill Maher’s: _Guide to Those Mysterious Voters Who are Not Men._ It sometimes seems like the modern Republican Party still thinks we’re living in 1950; when democracy meant that everyone - regardless of their race, religion, ethnicity, or gender - was allowed to vote for the white male Christian of their choice. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2015, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/59 "2015-09-01T18:01:31Z")
Romney-Walker is my pick. Romney is the best candidate from either side of the aisle for this cycle, and both are successful governors. Romney can handle money, to say the least, and is used to an oppositional government. And the MSM has already used up most of its misrepresentations against Walker, and I don’t think they have gotten used to the fact that the electorate doesn’t do as the East Coast media types tell them automatically. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402/60 "2015-09-01T18:11:01Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Romney-Walker is my pick. Romney is the best candidate from either side of the aisle for this cycle, and both are successful governors. Successful at what, one may ask. Romney’s key achievement is Romneycare, Walker’s is union-busting. > [@](#): > > Romney can handle money, to say the least When it’s his own, maybe. He was elected to manage the Big Dig, and you know how well he did _that_. > [@](#): > > And the MSM has already used up most of its misrepresentations against Walker What do you think is the truth about him? > [@](#): > > the East Coast media types tell them automatically. Couldn’t make yourself just type LSM, could you? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/pick-the-republican-team-p-and-vp-most-likely-to-succeed-in-16/729402.md?page=4)