I think the Madrid scenario is a possibility. The terrorists have demonstrated a spectacular misunderstanding of American psycology already by doing 9/11 in the first place.
I can see their reasoning now. “The Madrid attack worked with the Spaniards…if we do the same thing in the United States we can be rid of Bush.” It all depends on if they think that Kerry would go easier on them.
All of that said…the level will still be at red following some sort of attack that has taken place about a week before the election.
In answer to the original question, I ask “who cares?” We’ve had yellow, we’ve had orange, we’ll never have green or blue. In order to go to the lowest levels, someone in government is going to have to stick his neck out and say “hmmm… if I lower the threat level and an attack comes anyway, I’m going to look like an idiot. I think I’ll do it.” Realistically, it will probably be orange. Not that any of us do a darned thing different in our lives as the colors change.
I believe a massive attack right before election day would trigger the “rally round the flag” emotion and tilt the election toward Bush. It sort of makes me nervous to think that the person with the most to gain by an attack against us is the one that is supposed to be preventing it.
You are, and I use the adjective advisedly, dead right.
That said I think there is little question that 'Sama wants W for a punching bag for another four years. He’s (demonstragbly) way too smart about PR not to cherish a boob lke this on the other side.
Shjit, even the one of his guys that they convicted got sprung because the Germans can’t stand our ideas of due process.
(let us pause, for a sad moment, and reflect on the horror of that formulation…
Think of who we once were, and who they were, and where we are now…)
I wory about motive and opportunity… The concatenation of polling as a routine practice, which sets one of the predicates for this calamity, namely a sure and certain anti republican landslide which will sweep both houses and bush out together with the peculiar ;messianic delusions of W and the apocalyptic character of our opponents and the new bio capacity, sets this time apart.
arguendo:Bush, self-annointed, seeing a fractious and rebellious people stubbornly refusing to share his vision, elicits ominous intell, declares a curfew at 10:30 PM Monday before Election Day, a “shelter in place” until the bioweapon danger passes,
And the time lags built into the process, (as you cogenly lay out)) nwhich were of course keyed to 18th century transportaiton and communication, do leave plenty of room to diddle around (as we learned in 2000…)
I had always seen election day as the major hurdle, preciselyh because of the 50 state jurisdictions that you mention.
so I figure
[foilon]they need to get to the fifty secretarys of state. Like snatch them on Monday night–"we have intell that some of them are targets of the evildoers, so we have to shuffle them off to protective custody…)
likewise, the machines could be rolled up, which would put a hell of a spoke in the process. That would be a big job, but with 20,000 “private contractors” the objections raised of whether orders would be followed by rank and file are somewhat dealt with [foiloff]
all in all the practical difficulties of cancellation are admittedly formidable.
I am merely offering my opinion that, since it would take a crazy man to try such a thing, we are some steps down the road.
I cannot think of a more deluded and delusional president since Wilson woke up from the stroke.
*or red to heighten voters attention to the War on Terra issue, as they pull the lever. It appears from polling, that despite is obvious incompetence, at the moment voters still (why, precious blood of sweet baby Jesus, WHY?) go with Bush on internal security.
**or the fear that they will–you would think that the actual accomplishment of killing americans would make the remaining americans look around for a new sherrif, but, oh no…
***Oh, please. The most crucial election since maybe 1860, deeply divided populace, and these bozos are going to keep their thumb off the scale?
*I’m actually figuring they would have to snooker local law enforcemenmt, which they are set up to do through the DHS. like:
[foilon] monday morning at 6am they call everyn police chief in the nation.
Chief, there’s a threat to the poll workers in your jurisdiction, and some of them are evildoer moles. Round up all the poll workers, and bring them to the regional homeland security emergency coordinating center which for you is at __________.
This is highly classified, take only one or two of your best men, and say nothing to anyone lese. We will have further info for you when you get to the regional coordinating center.
At this point, the police chiefs and the poll workers exit our story. The government, in keeping with (already) established practice, refuses to comment on who they are holding, or why.
[foiloff]
I think the Continuity of Government act comes in here somewhere, but since I’m not up to speed on that particular branch of conspiracy theory, I leave it’s application to others.
Certainly ObL got his way on this one. Its a point.
This is a wild exaggeration. Certainly ‘the world in general’, and the ‘Arab world in particular’ are not too pleased with the US at present, but rallying against it in any kind of unified way? Where do you see indications of this? Has the ‘Arab world’ set aside its own quarrels and begun to stand shoulder to shoulder against America? Has Europe done anything but bitch and moan about the US? Have they tried any kind of unified action against the US? I’ve seen no indications of any of this. So…what indications do YOU see, rjung, that the world in general, and the Arab world in particular are ‘rallying’ against the US?
More exaggeration. ObL and SH weren’t ‘bitter foes’…they simply quietly despised each other. What did SH ever do TOO ObL (or vice versa) that would have made them ‘bitter foes’?? This was probably a net was for ObL. Its fairly clear that he never liked SH or Iraq, as they were a secular power. That didn’t mean he wanted the US to wack him though.
Do you have a cite for this, or is it just something you believe? I’ve seen no evidence that recruitment for AQ is up over previous years…I’ve seen no data on exactly how many folks are recruited period. Certainly AQ’s LOSSES in Iraq are higher than an average year of suicide bombing would account for.
Interesting. And the wacking of his command and control, as well as the only soveriegn sponser (i.e. the Talaban)…you don’t suppose that put a crimp in his style at all, do you? As for token effort…well, I think thats pretty much an exaggeration also. I doubt ObL would agree that its been a ‘token effort’ either, considering what was done to the former government of Afghanistan.
I suppose there isn’t one, if you think everything is going according to plan. I don’t think thats the case, so I’d say its a net wash all around for AQ. There have been some good aspects (like the US troops leaving SA), some neutral aspects (like the US invasion of Iraq…elements of good and bad from AQ perspective), and some very negative ones (the destruction of the Taliban government and the disruption of AQ command and control that was located in Afghanistan…such as it was).
[QUOTE]
[foilon] monday morning at 6am they call everyn police chief in the nation.
Chief, there’s a threat to the poll workers in your jurisdiction, and some of them are evildoer moles. Round up all the poll workers, and bring them to the regional homeland security emergency coordinating center which for you is at __________.
This is highly classified, take only one or two of your best men, and say nothing to anyone lese. We will have further info for you when you get to the regional coordinating center.
At this point, the police chiefs and the poll workers exit our story. The government, in keeping with (already) established practice, refuses to comment on who they are holding, or why.
[foiloff]
[QUOTE]
As I said above, simply closing down all the polling stations wouldn’t stop elections from taking place. It’s the electors appointed by the state legislatures that choose the president, not the popular vote. In the absence of a popular vote, state legislatures would be free to appoint electors themselves.
Do you realize how silly this sounds? “Oh, they weren’t bitter foes, they just despised each other.” :rolleyes: I’ll just remind you that, during the first Gulf War, Osama Bin Laden offered to rally his al Qaeda followers to invade Iraq and wage war against Saddam Hussein. Sounds a bit more than “quetly despising” to me.
Osama bin Laden: Wants fundamentalist Islamic Middle East.
Saddam Hussein: Leader of secular Iraq, persecuted fundamentalist Muslems.
of course, if Karl Rove is willing to go balls to the wall, and drop a vial of plague bacillus in four or five urban subway systems the week before the election, it might not be so hard to keep people at home on election day, ya feel me?
No, no I don’t ‘feel’ you. How the hell does that help the President? OK, so voter turnout is lower than expected. How can he target ‘Kerry’ supporters only? How can he know that a terrorist act won’t rally them to the polls? Why do you keep saying ‘Ya feel me’?
What ARE you going on about, Alaric? I am a pollworker myself. There’s four of us at each table and there’s at least ten tables. Security is one cop who reads all day and gets donuts brought right to him. They’d need three soldiers to take out Margaret Fogerty alone (Maggie’s a tough old bird). Fuggedaboutit.
Anyway, all politics aside, I think a level of orange would be very very wise, given the Madrid precedent. That’s all there is to it. I’d rather have too many bored Guardsmen in Grand Central than two few if God forbid somebody pulls something.