Oh, sure. On a CLEAR DAY.
Here’s the thing - from what I’ve seen from pictures and from my airport directory info, there was considerable difference between the two runways. For example, one was twice as wide as the other, in addition to being twice as long. The short runway has “shoulders” of pavement. The long runway does not, and has a taxiway off to one side. The long runway is asphalt. The short runway is concrete. The runways have different markings. You would think this would all be sufficient to make mistaking one for the other impossible.
Except it was dark. And apparently raining.
Well, in the dark one wet pavement more resembles another than when dry. Rain/fog/mist can obscure the ends of long runways or make it difficult to judge distance. If the lights are out on top of all that… well, airplanes do have “headlights” (they’re called “landing lights” and “taxi lights” but that’s nitpicky). But just as the headlights on your car don’t replace what streetlights can do, neither can the airplane’s lights replace properly functioning runway/taxiway lights.
Now, there IS another double check, and it’s quite simple. Runway numbers are assigned by magnetic heading, rounded off. So if you’re on runway 18 (for example) your compass/directional gyro/GPS should indicate you are pointing at 180 degrees on the compass rose (magnetic south, in this case). If you’re on runway 32, you’re pointing at 320. And for runway 22, your compass should read 220, not 260.
There are other possible factors like missing directional signs, and confusing/new intersections and turns.
Could the air traffic controller be a factor? Well, it’s possible that a fatigued controller might have missed a mis-alignment of the airplane, or an airplane turning onto the wrong runway - especially if some of the normal airport lighting was not functional. However, the pilots have the responsibility to double-check controller’s instructions. Also, it is the pilots who have final say in whether or not a takeoff will actually occur. That is why ATC says “you are cleared for takeoff”, not “you are ordered to take off”. ATC just says it’s your turn - the pilot decides whether or not to proceed from there.
I’m guessing human error is a big factor here, but it’s probably greatly affected by lighting - or lack of it - and possible weather conditions at the time which would make such an error more likely and harder to detect.
In any case, a tragedy all around.