# Playing chicken with the debt limit? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 21, 2011, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070 "2011-02-21T01:07:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2011, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/41 "2011-04-12T12:25:34Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > OK, a budget deal has been reached. At least now there’s an angle to take on how this’ll affect the debt ceiling issue (unless, of course, said deal is voted down, in which case it’s still as opaque as before). > > Will there be the votes to raise it? What would/could Republicans “safely” demand if not? Could they conceivably basically hold the _ **entire world economy** _ hostage by doing so? Like **Leaper** , I’m fascinated by the question. Sorry if I’ve little offer but snark and ignorance. 😃 As others have implied, the Treasury has practiced methods of remaining under the legal debt limit (\*) for a few weeks, and it’s not unreasonable to envision months of such delay (albeit with Tea-Party vs Obama lawsuits claiming un-fiscal un-Constitutional). - - One of the simplest ways, AFAICT, when Soc Sec is running a surplus is to simply deposit the surplus into an ordinary FRB demand deposit, rather than buying bonds. Doubtful the SS surplus is high enough these days for this method alone to dent the obstacle. ETA: The scoring criterion for ceiling failure might be SP/Moody ratings of AA or lower. I say “might be” because I’m doubtful of any particular competence in the recent ratings. Who are the best respected non-American raters? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2011, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/42 "2011-04-24T04:29:32Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > A blog comment said that there was an NBC/WSJ poll (can’t find the poll itself right now) that says that _a majority_ oppose raising the limit, _even after it was explained that not doing so meant default._ > > Hmmm. And this has been confirmed by other surveys made since. So will this affect the decision to actually do so? I’m not 100% sure, since the response seems to be made in ignorance, and it’s not like this is the only time the government does something necessary that voters don’t like. Still, could this encourage Tea Party members, make it harder to increase the limit in the future (though who’ll even remember the next time?), or make it harder to eliminate this requirement in the future (a requirement no other Western country has)? ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2011, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/43 "2011-04-24T16:52:57Z")
Why do we have a debt limit? If Congress can just raise it whenever they want (like they have 4 times during Obama’s presidency) then why perpetuate the facade that fiscal conservatism even exists and that both sides don’t conspire together to spend more? ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2011, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/44 "2011-04-24T21:38:54Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > …(like they have 4 times during Obama’s presidency)… For point of reference, [Republicans voted to raise the debt limit 19 times under Bush](http://thinkprogress.org/2011/04/14/republican-leaders-debt-limit-hypocrisy/). From what I can recall, with nary a peep about the deficit…[the opposite, in fact](http://www.issues2000.org/2004/Dick_Cheney_Budget_+_Economy.htm). I’ll note that elsewhere on the net I saw claims that the debt limit was raised 7 times under Bush; not only was that from blog entries (why I’m not citing it), but it’s not clear to me how that jibes with “voted to raise the debt limit”. Again, just for reference. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2011, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/45 "2011-04-25T14:03:59Z")
> [@Digital\_Stimulus](#): > > For point of reference, [Republicans voted to raise the debt limit 19 times under Bush](http://thinkprogress.org/2011/04/14/republican-leaders-debt-limit-hypocrisy/). From what I can recall, with nary a peep about the deficit…[the opposite, in fact](http://www.issues2000.org/2004/Dick_Cheney_Budget_+_Economy.htm). > > I’ll note that elsewhere on the net I saw claims that the debt limit was raised 7 times under Bush; not only was that from blog entries (why I’m not citing it), but it’s not clear to me how that jibes with “voted to raise the debt limit”. > > Again, just for reference. My use of Obama was not a partisan jab. You’ll note I blamed both parties for the increase spending. I used Obama because He’s the current President He recently made a speech in which he said that if the Reps don’t raise the debt limit, the economic ramifications are THEIR fault which probably should get a thread all of its own. ---
**Author:** ![Digital\_Stimulus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@Digital\_Stimulus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Digital_Stimulus)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2011, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/46 "2011-04-25T15:15:39Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > My use of Obama was not a partisan jab. Which is why I explicitly – twice – said it was a point of reference, thereby driving home the fact that it’s a bipartisan problem. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2011, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/47 "2011-04-25T15:26:12Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Why do we have a debt limit? If Congress can just raise it whenever they want (like they have 4 times during Obama’s presidency) then why perpetuate the facade that fiscal conservatism even exists and that both sides don’t conspire together to spend more? Political cowardice. It was easier to vote for a debt limit, and then raise it when required, than to actually pass a budget that reduces the deficit. I’m of the opinion that the debt limit is stupid, useless, and dangerous. It does nothing to reduce spending, raise revenues, or balance budgets. All it does is cause a period of turmoil, hypocritical political speeches, and debt rating rumblings. ---
**Author:** ![fumster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9c0ed/32.png) [@fumster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fumster)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2011, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/48 "2011-04-25T17:10:39Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > He recently made a speech in which he said that if the Reps don’t raise the debt limit, the economic ramifications are THEIR fault which probably should get a thread all of its own. Yeah, its clearly not the Republican’s fault. It’s those guys that cut taxes and raised spending’s fault. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2011, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/49 "2011-04-25T21:30:10Z")
I wonder… Is this a “new era” of public awareness of the limit? Will it force the government to do SOMETHING about it in the long term, whatever that SOMETHING is? Or will it be forgotten by the next news cycle? I’m not sure, but my first impression is that it doesn’t seem to be in the current politicos’ best interests to keep it in the public eye like this. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2011, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/50 "2011-05-02T02:12:47Z")
[This article on CNN](http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/01/news/economy/debt_ceiling_congress/index.htm) theorizes that in the end, the ceiling will be raised, probably with fewer political bargains than Republicans might like, because Wall Street won’t let default happen. It’s certainly a reasonable prediction; certainly it’d explain why few here seem concerned about it in general. It may also answer my question of “will Congress ever ‘follow the will of the current electorate’ and NOT raise it because the people don’t want them to”: most likely not. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2011, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/51 "2011-05-03T05:22:51Z")
Wow, sorry to bump again, but the Atlantic magazine has an article that argues that _[the 14th Amendment makes default unconstitutional!](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/the-speech-obama-could-give-the-constitution-forbids-default/237977/)_ Any validity to this argument? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/52 "2011-05-10T05:21:22Z")
Given the above, wonder how [Boehner’s new remarks](http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/09/news/economy/boehner_deficits/index.htm?hpt=T1) will go over? (Sorry for all these posts in a row; no one else seems to care, and things just keep on happening! I’ll stop if asked.) ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/53 "2011-05-11T02:03:10Z")
The US Treasury has already begun the process to delay any potential default. > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury is expected to start dipping into federal pension funds on May 16 to give Congress more time to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit, which caps the amount the country is legally allowed to borrow. > > On Friday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was forced to start employing the first of the department’s extraordinary measures to give the government room to borrow funds to meet its obligations. As of that date, the total U.S. public debt was just $23 billion below the ceiling. > > The United States has until Aug. 2 before it will start defaulting on its obligations, such as interest payments. [http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/usa-debt-limit-idUSN0926640220110510](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/usa-debt-limit-idUSN0926640220110510) The article goes on to list a number of programs that may be suspended. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/54 "2011-05-11T02:13:42Z")
Ah, glad to see they’re on that; without such measures, I think I read the deadline was less than a week. Of course, some fear that even having to do those things at all is as good as defaulting, as far as international markets and such go. True? If not, how much further would things need to go? Or have they ALREADY gone that far? ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/55 "2011-05-11T02:28:05Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Given the above, wonder how [Boehner’s new remarks](http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/09/news/economy/boehner_deficits/index.htm?hpt=T1) will go over? > > (Sorry for all these posts in a row; no one else seems to care, and things just keep on happening! I’ll stop if asked.) IOW, he lied to the American people’s faces when he said he supported the deal reached at the White House last month. He was pleased “[to come to an agreement that will in fact cut spending and keep our government open.](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/09/us-usa-budget-deal-boehner-idUSTRE7380GY20110409)” Until it came time to honor the agreement by actually coming up with funding for it. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/56 "2011-05-11T03:14:49Z")
> [@](#): > > WASHINGTON – Senate Republicans shouldn’t lift a finger to raise the nation’s debt limit, argued Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday. The Texas Republican, who is in charge of the GOP’s political strategy for 2012, made the case that his Republican colleagues should leave it to Democrats to do the politically unpalatable, yet economically crucial, deed. > > “We should vote against it, and let those people who vote for it explain why they couldn’t stop the spending spree,” Cornyn told reporters. [John Cornyn: 'There's No Incentive At All' For Senate GOP To Increase Debt Limit | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/10/john-cornyn-gop-no-incentive-debt-limit_n_860163.html) Politics is more important that country. But to be fair, FEMA refused to help with the Texas fires and NASA refused to base one of the retired shuttles in Houston. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/57 "2011-05-11T03:56:48Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Wow, sorry to bump again, but the Atlantic magazine has an article that argues that _[the 14th Amendment makes default unconstitutional!](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/04/the-speech-obama-could-give-the-constitution-forbids-default/237977/)_ > > Any validity to this argument? Seems to me that this argument completely ignores the “as authorized by law” part of the 14th Amendment. If the Amendment stated that “the validity of the public debt shall not be questioned,” I’d say the author has a point. But there must be a reason that the phrase “as authorized by law” is in there, and the most logical conclusion would be that Congress must authorize the debt; it can’t go on constitutional autopilot. Section Five of the Amendment is also conspiciously not mentioned: The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article. In contrast to the author’s conclusion (“This action requires me to authorize borrowing that is not in conformity with the debt-limit statute. But no congressional statute can command or permit our government to violate the Constitution.”), it would seem Congress is very specifically put in charge of the question of regulating debt. ---
**Author:** ![just\_some\_guy5](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@just\_some\_guy5](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/just_some_guy5)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/58 "2011-05-11T04:13:28Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > IOW, he lied to the American people’s faces when he said he supported the deal reached at the White House last month. He was pleased “[to come to an agreement that will in fact cut spending and keep our government open.](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/09/us-usa-budget-deal-boehner-idUSTRE7380GY20110409)” Until it came time to honor the agreement by actually coming up with funding for it. :rolleyes: As ridiculous as I find the debt limit debate (that congress should have the power to determine not whether we take on more debt, but whether we’ll actually make good on our outstanding debt is stupid beyond words), I don’t view this as a lie. The deal to keep our government “open” was very specific to those prior budget cuts, and even in negotiating them it was quite clear that the GOP would push for further concessions on the debt ceiling issue. As much as I find the “debt ceiling” debates utterly ridiculous, I didn’t for one second think that the budget agreement was an agreement on the debt ceiling as well. Can’t imagine many others interpreted it that way either. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/59 "2011-05-11T19:44:47Z")
[A conservative argument that we won’t default in May.](http://www.nationalreview.com/exchequer/266987/world-not-going-end-may) Are the measures mentioned here the ones taking place mentioned a few posts earlier? (And the so far lone comment does bring up an issue I asked about before: whether the fact of default matters in the face of the possibility that we could get equally bad consequences by people THINKING we are.) ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070/60 "2011-05-11T20:39:08Z")
> [@just\_some\_guy5](#): > > The deal to keep our government “open” was very specific to those prior budget cuts, and even in negotiating them it was quite clear that the GOP would push for further concessions on the debt ceiling issue. As much as I find the “debt ceiling” debates utterly ridiculous, I didn’t for one second think that the budget agreement was an agreement on the debt ceiling as well. Can’t imagine many others interpreted it that way either. In order for the budget that was agreed upon to go into full effect, the debt ceiling has to be raised. You can’t support a budget and at the same time intend to block it. Boehner should have only agreed to a 5 week continuing resolution if he only intended the deal to last 5 weeks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/playing-chicken-with-the-debt-limit/572070.md?page=4)