[quote=“Munch, post:100, topic:552270”]
Even if you are not sniping, day one bidding is the least intelligent way to bid. For reasons that have been explained several times by several different posters.
And you have done that.
Over and over and over again.
The only question is: since no one is arguing the point, why do you feel the need to keep on repeating yourself?
Didn’t you just argue the point in this very post, and state that people have been arguing it all over this thread? Here:
scr4:
“We’ve already established what kind of woman you are. Now we’re just hagglingh over the price.”
The copy in question is an Advance Reading Copy (ARC), which is sent out to bookstores and reviewers before the book is released. It says “not for sale” right on the book, and they are issued with instructions that they are not to be resold. Any bookstore or reviewer selling the book is violating their agreement with the publisher and jeopardizing all future chances of getting ARCs from that publisher.
Therefore, you don’t see a lot of them showing up early on eBay. If you don’t work in the trade, it’s worth some money to get hold of your favorite author’s new book early and read it before everybody else gets a chance to. I’ve turned down offers to sell ARCs to my customers before the book comes out.
I’ve accumulated hundreds of them, and what I generally do is hold a big party for the best customers at my bookstore every year and give away ARCs from the previous year for free.
I’ve bought some ARCs from Amazon myself. But paying a $34 premium for a book that comes out in 26 days? I’m sure the person has his reasons, (maybe the moving to Africa thing) but I can’t see myself doing it.
eta: Final price the book went for was $76. So they actually paid $67 over Amazon price to get the book 26 days early.
Right - if you rule out the possibility of doing it in a well-accepted, easy and efficient way, its potential for saving time tends to be meaningfully lower.
Sort of like the guy who walks his bicycle to work and back, disputing the claim that a bike is an efficient way to move around.
I used to be unclear about sniping, too, since if everyone behaved rationally, then it wouldn’t make any difference. The trick, though, is that even if you’re rational, there are still a bunch of other irrational people out there. And the existence of those irrational people can change what your rational behavior is. If there are other irrational people out there (and there are), then sniping becomes the rational strategy.
A very concise description of why I used to snipe (or rather, would still if I still used eBay). For some reason this reminds me of the ultimatum game.
For the most part, this generalization is true. However it’s entirely possible to construct a situation where all bidders for a particular auction are actually behaving rationally even though it appears irrational to others.
For example,
Bidder A intends to bid only once and do so on day #1. Bidder A is fully aware of nibblers and snipers but he’s willing to live with that for the convenience of bidding at that moment. If he loses that particular auction, that’s fine. The tradeoffs are understood. Bidder A is rational. (Munch’s approach could be a rational example of this.)
Bidder B sees Bidder A’s initial bid and thinks it’s irrational. Bidder B starts chipping away at the max bid. Bidder B is fully aware that he shouldn’t bid at all until the last day. However, he wants to get insight into Bidder A’s max price now. If he loses that particular auction, he’s ok with it. He can at least use that newly acquired information on what people will bid to attack future auctions, or possibly have a price in mind to buy it off the street away from ebay. Bidder B has a totally rational approach.
Bidder C sees both Bidder A and Bidder B as irrational idiots. Bidder C snipes at the very end. He may win the item – he may not. He still has have the highest bid. Bidder C is also rational (as has been explained repeatedly in this thread.)
Of course, all bidders would like to win the auction but they prioritize different things. Bidder A values convenience. Bidder B values information. Bidder C values a low final winning amount.
Even though Bidder A looks like he’s made the worst rookie mistake, he could still win if Bidder B and C totally underestimate Bidder A’s max ceiling.
Granted… Bidder C’s “rationality” is much more common than Bidder A and Bs and when we speak of “rational ebay strategy”, that’s what we’re usually talking about.
My hypothetical example wouldn’t happen with common things like Barbie Dolls or Nintendo but it could happen with other slower moving items.
Sniping is tactically effective against people who will only bid to a certain level when they see that others are bidding to that level. This behaviour is not always irrational. For example, say there is a rare widget for sale and I don’t know and can’t easily find out how much it usually sells for, perhaps because it sells so seldom and I can’t or don’t have time to research the point. Say I want this thing but don’t want to pay way above market because I want to re-sell it shortly.
You might say “well just put in a bid for the most you can afford, and your bid will be driven up to market”. In a perfect market that is what should happen. But markets in general and specific ebay auctions in particular are far from perfect. A given auction might have few buyers, and I am at the mercy of bad luck: if one other clueless buyer follows my lead and pushes my bid up waaay too high I may end up buying something for a lot more than what it normally sells for.
So instead I might think (entirely rationally) that instead of bidding the most I can afford, I will sit back and watch what others do. If plenty of buyers come forward and start bidding to a certain level, I will (entirely rationally) conclude that there is a ready market at the level of the bids and it is reasonably safe for me to bid at or somewhat above that level. I can’t go too far wrong. I’m not being irrational, I am utilising useful market information.
Sniping doesn’t just protect against silly people (though it does that too) it also deprives others of valuable market information, namely what the sniper is prepared to pay.
If placing your first bid on Day 1 were the most effective way of bidding, believe me, all the sniping programs would be operating that way.
99% of what I buy on eBay I don’t use my sniping program for. Most of what I buy are small, cheap, common items where there’s no competition, and often the Buy It Now price is the lowest, such as cables, cell phone chargers, etc. But for the few times a year where I want a more in-demand item, there’s nothing easier than to put my bid in the sniping program and sit back.
^ That’s not necessarily true–all it means is that people believe that sniping helps. and those who create the sniping programs have reasons to make people believe it helps, as what would be the utility of a program that did what you could already do on eBay?
Sniping allows you to sometimes get items you would otherwise lose.
It also allows you to sometimes pay less than you would otherwise pay.
See any of the several worked examples on this thread if you do not currently understand how.
It’s not some smoke and mirrors trick. More intelligent Ebay users quickly learn that sniping is the most effective way to bid and the sniping programs became available because users wanted sniping made easier and more convenient rather than someone dreaming up sniping programs at random and then persuading gullible users to employ them.
What sniping software do you use, everyone? I have one I sometimes use, but it seems to be buggy, and sometimes doesn’t enter the snipe I’ve set. I’m looking for a better one.
I use Bidnip. (This is a service rather than a program so it will place bids when I’m travelling without the need to leave the computer on all the time.)
When I first started using it a few years back it would occasionally not place a bid (and they’d give me free snipes when I reported this), but it’s been rock solid for the past couple of years. I buy a lot of stamps on Ebay so tend to use it a great deal.
I’ve been a Sniper since the days of watching my ex bid on auctions.
He collected old computers, and often he’d come across one on eBay that he saw playing a role in his collection but without too much importance attached to it. It would go something like
“Ooh, look. Someone’s listed an Appledore 95 machine with a starting price of 99 cents and only one bid. I’ve seen them go as high as $120. I’d have one if I could get it for $50. I’ll bid and see what happens. Ha, outbid. I’ll try $60. Outbid. $70. Outbid. What the heck, I’ll go $80. Ooh, I’m the winning bidder. <…very soon after…> Hah, that first guy has outbid me already. I guess he’s really keen. I don’t want it for these prices… but I wonder what his maximum is this time? I bet he’s set it at $90. I’ll try $89.99. Haha! Yep, he’s still the highest bidder. I wonder if he’s gone to $100? What the hell. Hahaha, yep, his bid jumped up to $99.99.”
I don’t know if eBay still lets you cancel bids, but I’ve seen my ex push bids high knowing he could cancel his bid if he accidentally got in front. I can’t believe he’s the only jerkhole out there who retaliates against the people who are willing to pay more by making them pay moooooore.
I have used Jbidwatcher over the years with success.
Ebay is constantly updating its software and this program will update regularly to keep up with them.
They do but your account will be suspended if you abuse this. I don’t know what the threshold is.
When I used to sell on ebay, sometimes I’d get an email asking, “I’ve changed my mind – can you cancel my bid?”
At first, I was 
so I simply emailed back saying, “you can just cancel them yourself, you don’t need me to intervene.”
Then he’d reply, “yes but ebay penalizes me if I do it instead of the seller doing it.”
I think the more common problem is shill bidding by unethical sellers. I have screenshots in my archives proving that certain sellers use multiple accounts to artificially raise the price of their final winning bid amount. Ebay has sophisticated algorithms to help detect this type of thing but it can’t prevent all of them.
Yeah, the ex identified and reported a few shills himself. He would sometimes bid on auctions of friends if he thought their stuff wasn’t going high enough (no collusion, no actual agreement to do that for them, just if he happened to see an auction by a friend where the price was hovering low, he’d bid). He would also make bids that he knew wouldn’t win to help push prices up on items that he thought should be worth more, or if he had a similar item to sell so people searching eBay’s sold history would see higher final prices when he came to list his own.
It is accurate. I can easily see at the end of each auction if the selling price after sniping is less than it would have been had I bid on Day 1, based on completed sales prices of identical items. It’s very easy to see where Day 1 bids drive the price up.