# Plot to blow up 10 US airplanes over Atlantic - credible threat, or rumour-mongering? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 10, 2006, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144 "2006-08-10T12:41:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![GLWasteful](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f05b48/32.png) [@GLWasteful](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GLWasteful)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/201 "2006-08-14T22:04:13Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Not a conspiracy, merely a consensus amongst patriotic, civic-minded oil executives. They studied the matter closely, and discovered that thier financial interests and the interests of the nation were in perfect harmony! Whats good for Exxon is good for the US. [/QUOTE] Oh, well, that’s different. Carry on! ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/202 "2006-08-15T11:18:16Z")
[QUOTE=col\_10022] BTW why do you think phone taps cannot be used as evidence? [/QUOTE] I am pretty sure that is the case in UK law - if anyone can confirm or refute this I would be grateful - yet I’ve heard of transcripts being used - IIRC from bugs … not sure Digressing, which I should not do, but it is slightly relevant. Last night I went for a meal with a guy who is pretty canny, he was asking my views on recent events. I said that I reckoned it would be highly unlikely that any of those arrested would go for trial, and they would not need to be ‘tortured’. Simply pointing out that one would let on that they had turned informant would be enough to make them realize that they had more to fear from other Islamiscists. Also that being brainwashed once, would make them fairly easy to re-convert. They would not be much use back in their own communities, but could be handy in Canada. He seemed surprized that I have no animosity towards young guys who have got caught up in a ‘Boy’s Own’ fantasy. With the UK ones, we need to understand how and why they got embroiled in such a self destructive exercize - when we understand that, we have a chance of sowing seeds of doubt in the minds of their contemporaries. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/203 "2006-08-15T14:30:21Z")
> [@](#): > > With the UK ones, we need to understand how and why they got embroiled in such a self destructive exercize - when we understand that, we have a chance of sowing seeds of doubt in the minds of their contemporaries. I’d have agreed with you at one time, like on September 10, 2001. Personally, I am past trying to help and understand people who are trying to kill me and my children. Sorry. It’s personal. I feel the same way about these animals as I would a person who broke into my home and held a gun to the head of my child. I will do anything, and stop at nothing, to destroy them. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/204 "2006-08-15T15:59:14Z")
[QUOTE=MLS] I am past trying to help and understand people who are trying to kill me and my children. [/QUOTE] Yet, until we address the gateway activities of people at risk of becoming terrorists, we will face a never ending supply of _new_ terrorists. Draining the swamp is a more effective method of control than swatting each individual mosquito. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/205 "2006-08-15T16:31:38Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Yet, until we address the gateway activities of people at risk of becoming terrorists, we will face a never ending supply of _new_ terrorists. Draining the swamp is a more effective method of control than swatting each individual mosquito. [/QUOTE] Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean you stop swatting mosquitoes when they present themselves. ---
**Author:** ![spingears](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ebca7d/32.png) [@spingears](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spingears)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2006, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/206 "2006-08-15T16:41:39Z")
[QUOTE=e-logic] Does this sound like a credible threat, or over-reaction by security services / politicians? [/QUOTE] Naturally. It’s all poppycock as anyone who has kept up with the Islamic protest since the plot was exposed can attest ! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![CantTakeSky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/41988e/32.png) [@CantTakeSky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CantTakeSky)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/207 "2006-08-16T15:06:21Z")
[QUOTE=MLS] I’d have agreed with you at one time, like on September 10, 2001. Personally, I am past trying to help and understand people who are trying to kill me and my children. Sorry. It’s personal. I feel the same way about these animals as I would a person who broke into my home and held a gun to the head of my child. I will do anything, and stop at nothing, to destroy them. [/QUOTE] If indeed, these “animals” are the ones who broke into your home and held a gun to your child’s head. It is the custom of most lawful nations to conduct trials where the accused get a chance to defend themselves. These “animals” were suspected, accused, tried, and sentenced by public opinion and government publications. Now, it is simply a “known fact” that THEY are the animals who killed 3000 people on 9/11/01. And people come on message boards calling for their lynching. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/208 "2006-08-16T17:01:39Z")
[QUOTE=CantTakeSky] If indeed, these “animals” are the ones who broke into your home and held a gun to your child’s head. It is the custom of most lawful nations to conduct trials where the accused get a chance to defend themselves. These “animals” were suspected, accused, tried, and sentenced by public opinion and government publications. Now, it is simply a “known fact” that THEY are the animals who killed 3000 people on 9/11/01. And people come on message boards calling for their lynching. [/QUOTE] I was responding to **FRDE** ’s allegation that we first need to \*understand \* them. I don’t particularly care what their motivation is/was, if they had a difficult childhood, or have voices in their heads telling them to blow up airplanes, or if they just feel misunderstood and unappreciated by the world, or if they think their religion has been disrespected, or whatever. For the record, I feel the same way about people who abuse children. I may intellectually appreciate that they are following some family pattern, just don’t know any better, or have some mental illness. I don’t care. They must be stopped. Period. And just so _I’m_ not misunderstood, by “abuse” I don’t mean a swat on the butt for poking metal forks in the electric outlet. None of this implies a “lynching.” If I caught someone in the act of any of the above, and I had the means to terminate him/her with extreme prejudice, I would do so, and to heck with the consequences, _if that’s what it took to make the horror stop_. If lesser means would suffice, then lesser means should be used. Up to and including a fair trial by jury. Later, if/when the perpetrator(s) are properly prevented from ever acting in such a way again, we can have the luxury of “understanding.” ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/209 "2006-08-16T17:11:40Z")
Simply too soon to tell. Sometimes these things disappear harmlessly. I will wait for evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Rilchiam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/2bfe46/32.png) [@Rilchiam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rilchiam)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/210 "2006-08-16T21:10:10Z")
[QUOTE=MLS] I was responding to **FRDE** ’s allegation that we first need to \*understand \* them. [/QUOTE] Are you sure he (she?) meant sympathy? I took it as trying to find their weakness. They sure as heck know **our** weakness: we think we can solve every problem by creating more rules and waving the flag. And by tipping our hand too early: I said in another thread that arresting people because they had bought 1000 cellphones should not have been headline news. If we know how a terrorist’s mind works, we can pinpoint their weakness and exploit it. Understanding will also help us know who’s **not** a terrorist, so we don’t cry wolf every time someone with olive skin comes out of a store with a shopping bag. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/211 "2006-08-16T21:40:52Z")
[Here](http://www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2006/08/the_uk_terror_p.html)’s some interesting points that I believe deserve some attention: > [@](#): > > None of the alleged terrorists had made a bomb. None had bought a plane ticket. Many did not even have passports, which given the efficiency of the UK Passport Agency would mean they couldn’t be a plane bomber for quite some time. > > In the absence of bombs and airline tickets, and in many cases passports, it could be pretty difficult to convince a jury beyond reasonable doubt that individuals intended to go through with suicide bombings, whatever rash stuff they may have bragged in internet chat rooms. > > What is more, many of those arrested had been under surveillance for over a year - like thousands of other British Muslims. And not just Muslims. Like me. Nothing from that surveillance had indicated the need for early arrests. > > Then an interrogation in Pakistan revealed the details of this amazing plot to blow up multiple planes - which, rather extraordinarily, had not turned up in a year of surveillance. Of course, the interrogators of the Pakistani dictator have their ways of making people sing like canaries. As I witnessed in Uzbekistan, you can get the most extraordinary information this way. Trouble is it always tends to give the interrogators all they might want, and more, in a desperate effort to stop or avert torture. What it doesn’t give is the truth. I can’t say I believe everything in the blog post, but this does bring up some interesting questions. What was the physical evidence of an imminent strike, or is their case mostly circumstantial, combined with the “intel” from a probably-tortured witness? Did the US put pressure on the UK to prematurely move on these suspects before enough of this physical evidence could be revealed? Regardless of whether these men were a threat or not, what would the fallout be if the Brits can’t present a convincing case in a court of law? ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/212 "2006-08-17T02:12:45Z")
There is one thing about this whole thing that bothers me a little. I wonder whether or not a home made all-liquid bomb would actually bring down a transoceanic jet. Of course, it would kill a bunch of people but that’s different. There are, in fact, liquid explosives where the rate of burning is so fast that very high pressure is built up. Nitro glycerine is one example. Such explosives have such a high burning rate that the air, which moves at the speed of sound, creates the equvalent of a containment shell. This causes the pressure in the bubble of hot gas to build up which increases the burn rate and so on so that in short order the whole fuel supply burns virtually simultaneously which is detonation. Most explosive compounds need a containment vessel in order to build up sufficient pressure to get detonation. The only damage an all-liquid bomb does without such a shell is by means of blast, or overpressure, and I question whether a mixture of the liquids you can buy over the counter can produce the desired effect. Does anyone know if such mixtures can produce high-order detonation and get an effective blast effect? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/213 "2006-08-17T03:18:52Z")
[QUOTE=David Simmons] There is one thing about this whole thing that bothers me a little. I wonder whether or not a home made all-liquid bomb would actually bring down a transoceanic jet. [/QUOTE] Well, the internet is **not** a great place to look up the detonation rate of explosives, but MEK peroxide is usually referred to as a high explosive, detonating at \>1,000 meters per second, so it should be able to build up fair head of pressure. Still I wonder about the practicality of mixing this stuff up while on a plane. All the methods I’ve seen (absence of links) involve **hours** of reaction time at 0-5°C, followed by a nontrivial neutralization and separation procedure. You might be able to skip the final steps if all you plan to do is blow yourself up, but I think the stewardesses might notice if you keep asking them for ice and salt every 15 minutes. Perhaps the evil doers have come up with a super duper synthesis that gets around this problem, but it’s not obvious to me what that could be. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/214 "2006-08-17T04:08:12Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Well, the internet is **not** a great place to look up the detonation rate of explosives, but MEK peroxide is usually referred to as a high explosive, detonating at \>1,000 meters per second, so it should be able to build up fair head of pressure. Still I wonder about the practicality of mixing this stuff up while on a plane. All the methods I’ve seen (absence of links) involve **hours** of reaction time at 0-5°C, followed by a nontrivial neutralization and separation procedure. You might be able to skip the final steps if all you plan to do is blow yourself up, but I think the stewardesses might notice if you keep asking them for ice and salt every 15 minutes. Perhaps the evil doers have come up with a super duper synthesis that gets around this problem, but it’s not obvious to me what that could be. [/QUOTE] That’s the sort of thing I was trying to get at. Really high explosive mixtures aren’t all that easy to make. That is, explsives with sufficient kick that a small amount will do a lot of damage without some sort of containment shell. Ammonium nitrate fertilizer and fuel oil works pretty well, as in OK City. However there was a small amount of containment and as I understand it they used [some 5000 pounds](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_City_bombing) of the stuff to do the job. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/215 "2006-08-17T04:12:51Z")
And yes, once a mixture detonates the speed of detonation is very high. The problem is getting it to detonate. That’s the key to all explosions, even nuclear ones. That is, holding the stuff together long enough for essentially all of it all to catch fire, or react, at once. For best possible yield the case should rupture just as the last molecule reacts. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/216 "2006-08-17T08:40:38Z")
[QUOTE=Rilchiam] Are you sure he (she?) meant sympathy? I took it as trying to find their weakness. They sure as heck know **our** weakness: we think we can solve every problem by creating more rules and waving the flag. And by tipping our hand too early: I said in another thread that arresting people because they had bought 1000 cellphones should not have been headline news. If we know how a terrorist’s mind works, we can pinpoint their weakness and exploit it. Understanding will also help us know who’s **not** a terrorist, so we don’t cry wolf every time someone with olive skin comes out of a store with a shopping bag. [/QUOTE] I’m a he. No I did not mean ‘sympathy’ although I do feel sorry for them, which is another thing entirely. From observation, I’ve built up a few whacky theories, one of which is that young men are easily influenced and prone to get caught up in ‘Boy’s Own’ escapades. The people I detest are the swine who are brainwashing them, they seem to be ignorant Imams and Mullahs who come from remote backwoods. I reckon if we could understand how the young guys tick, and how their levers are being manipulated, then we have a chance of providing an alternative influence. I totally agree with the ‘cry wolf’ stuff, a lot of that is educating the majority of the population - for example after 9/11 people were attacking Sikhs, which is crazy - Sikhs are 100% safe (except for Mrs Gandhi) - if you want a security clearable person - look for a Sikh, which is why a heck of a lot of them work at Heathrow. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2006, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/217 "2006-08-17T19:54:51Z")
More unanswered questions from [Andrew Sullivan](http://time.blogs.com/daily_dish/2006/08/the_uk_terror_p_2.html): > [@](#): > > So: no solid evidence of a) passports, b) tickets, c) prepared explosives. So far–and this may change, of course–we know of _one_ individual allegedly prepping for a “dry-run.” Everyone else was already under intense surveillance. And yet this group of potentially lethal Islamists was arrested suddenly, perhaps forfeiting subsequent evidence or intelligence, and maybe rendering a successful prosecution impossible. One wonders why. Faulty tortured evidence from Pakistan? Jitteriness in Washington? There did not seem to be much jitteriness in Downing Street in the week before the planned “dry-run.” Tony Blair decided to go on vacation, and never left it. Most of the leading British officials were chilling. Brown was in Scotland. Two suspects have already been released without being charged. The British authorities are asking for time extensions on detaining the rest-- not a good sign for the prosecution. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2006, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/218 "2006-08-19T08:17:55Z")
[QUOTE=David Simmons] And yes, once a mixture detonates the speed of detonation is very high. The problem is getting it to detonate. That’s the key to all explosions, even nuclear ones. That is, holding the stuff together long enough for essentially all of it all to catch fire, or react, at once. For best possible yield the case should rupture just as the last molecule reacts. [/QUOTE] [Here](http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/08/17/flying_toilet_terror_labs/) is a very interesting analysis of the feasibility of the explosives from The Register. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2006, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/219 "2006-08-19T08:57:52Z")
[QUOTE=Voyager] [Here](http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/08/17/flying_toilet_terror_labs/) is a very interesting analysis of the feasibility of the explosives from The Register. [/QUOTE] Interesting, I remember making Nitro Glycerine in chemistry class at school - it was three liquids - the drop of Suphuric acid was necessary TATP /was/ used on 7/7 and it worked Ok, I’ve heard nothing about other substances - but they claimed to have found the bath it was mixed in Ok they failed on 21/7 when it did not go off During WWI the Germans placed incendiary bombs in ships from the USA to Europe, they were a lead pipe with two liquids separated by something that etched away. I read about it in a book by the guy in charge of the operation. What makes things like this a little tricky, is that it is not in the interest of the authorities to release real information. For example, they say that four plots have been foiled, yet provide no evidence, and there have been no prosecutions. But there would be no evidence or prosecutions if the guys involved had proved co-operative. It makes it very hard to be sure either way. The latest is that they have found ‘martyr videos’ on laptops, I anticipate clips from those will turn up in the news media. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2006, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144/220 "2006-08-19T13:43:45Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] The latest is that they have found ‘martyr videos’ on laptops, I anticipate clips from those will turn up in the news media. [/QUOTE] Two things. Martyr videos are easy to make whether or not you actually intend to be a martyr. Even if you do intend to be a martyr that doesn’t guarantee your plan is a good one or that your method of carrying it out will be effective. The history is that explosive incidents have been with conventional explosives. The agent in the 9/11 attacks was ordinary jet engine fuel. As the article noted, a large economic constituency has developed (one might say with explosive speed) that pushes sniffers, x-ray machines and all the other paraphernalia associated with the security business. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/plot-to-blow-up-10-us-airplanes-over-atlantic-credible-threat-or-rumour-mongering/368144.md?page=12)