# Point spreads and average victory margins

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/point-spreads-and-average-victory-margins/480466>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [January 9, 2009, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/point-spreads-and-average-victory-margins/480466 "2009-01-09T02:10:48Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Page:** 1

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\
**Post date:** [January 9, 2009, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/point-spreads-and-average-victory-margins/480466/1 "2009-01-09T02:10:48Z")

</div>

How possible is it to game point spreads, specifically with respect to the average margins of victory that football games typically see?

An illustration: say I note that a team, say the Smeagols, are underdogs to the Dwarves by 7 1/2 points. I know that, because of how many points touchdowns are worth, that a 7 point win is (say) 2 times as likely as an 8 point win, so I bet on the Smeagols. How much of an edge would that give me? Or do other factors pretty much make such considerations negligible?