# poker odds question (OK, a bad beat story too!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 20, 2009, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104 "2009-03-20T01:24:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/1 "2009-03-20T01:24:22Z")
I’ve just returned from a local poker tournament. 120 players, £10 ($15) entry fee. We started with 2000 chips and blinds at 25/ 50 (so no need to rush). I folded the first 18 hands in a row (despite being a Gus Hansen fan 🙂 ), then picked up KK. I raised and everyone instantly folded. OK, at least I have a table image! Next hand I pick up Kc 10c and raise. Only one caller. The flop comes Ac 10d 4c. I chuck in a continuation bet, he goes all-in (:eek:), but after calling another club makes me the chip leader. 😃 I’m bullying the table and feeling good, when I pick up Kd Qd. I raise and a medium stack calls. The flop is Qh 10d 8d. He goes all-in (slight signs of nervousness). I call and he shows As 9c. 🆒 The turn is Ac and then no diamond, K or Q comes on the river. What are the odds on that? Next hand I pick up QQ. I’m the short stack so go all-in. I’m called by A5 and K2. The flop comes AK8 and two cards later I’m watching TV in the bar. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/2 "2009-03-20T01:39:27Z")
[Here you go.](http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=qh+td+8d&d=&h=kd+qd%0D%0Aas+9c) You win the hand after going all in 84.55% of the time. ---
**Author:** ![EpicNonsense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c37758/32.png) [@EpicNonsense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EpicNonsense)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/3 "2009-03-20T01:48:06Z")
Don’t you just hate shit like that… God, I must have run into a few hundred exactly like that in my poker career… Curious, after you called him (The KQ hand), what was his reaction? ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/4 "2009-03-20T10:16:20Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > [Here you go.](http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=qh+td+8d&d=&h=kd+qd%0D%0Aas+9c) You win the hand after going all in 84.55% of the time. VarlosZ, that’s a useful site - thanks! > [@EpicNonsense](#): > > Don’t you just hate shit like that.. God, I must have run into a few hundred exactly like that in my poker career.. > > Curious, after you called him (The KQ hand), what was his reaction? Ah well, I managed to stay calm (I keep reminding myself that poker is exciting, but that if I want no luck I should play chess!). My opponent looked like a man who had been caught drawing to a gutshot i.e. guilty. A couple of players, who I had bullied, actually moaned out loud. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![EpicNonsense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c37758/32.png) [@EpicNonsense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EpicNonsense)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/5 "2009-03-20T11:40:42Z")
Here is another site you may find useful… > **[PokerListings - Poker News, Guides, Strategies & Reviews](https://www.pokerlistings.com/)** > > PokerListings is the leading source for poker news & guides! Explore expert reviews of top poker sites, sign-up bonuses & huge selection of articles. And this tool is the main reason I use the site… > **[Poker Odds Calculator - Odds of Winning With Any Poker Hand](https://www.pokerlistings.com/online-poker-odds-calculator)** > > This instant poker odds calculator tells you your immediate odds of winning or losing a poker hand. Try our poker hand odds calculator here. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/6 "2009-03-20T14:14:50Z")
Inexperienced (or experienced but bad) players typically get angry when someone else makes a bad play. “How could you play like that!” - but if you’re serious about the game you realize that people playing badly is the source of your success and profit. You learn to embrace them. You learn to like when people do stupid stuff, even if it occasionally backfires on you, because it’s fundamentally what you benefit from. It’s actually a problem in the poker world when an asshole berates a bad player into playing better out of embarassment. When they do that I sometimes ask them “would you prefer he played better and just flat out beat you?” ---
**Author:** ![wintertime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c68b51/32.png) [@wintertime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wintertime)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/7 "2009-03-20T15:04:27Z")
> [@](#): > > It’s actually a problem in the poker world when an asshole berates a bad player into playing better out of embarassment. When they do that I sometimes ask them “would you prefer he played better and just flat out beat you?” I hear you. Whenever I sit with someone who plays big pots with highly speculative hands I’ll say something like “bad luck” when he looses and “wow, didn’t see that one coming” when he manages to win against all probability. Come on, don’t we want these guys to stay at our tables and continue to feel good about the way they play? Sure, in a tourney, I hate to lose that way too, but, in the end, no one forced me into an all-in that had a bigger than zero chance to kick me out. ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/8 "2009-03-20T16:33:56Z")
Yes, you had some bad luck. If I have an 85% chance of winning the hand, I want people to call me, all the time. Yes, 1 out of 6 times they will draw out on me but in the long run I am going to have enough chips to withstand it. several months ago, i was the short stack at a table and and I went all-in with top 2 pair after the flop. The big blind bet (big stack) and I went all in. Big blind called with no hand and no draw. He had two under cards to my pair so he had to hit runner-runner for a straight, a flush, or trips. Yep he hit two hearts for a flush. I came in 6th place and the tournament paid five places. Was i angry? Not really. I wanted the idiot to call with a hand like that. It was the only way that I was going to back into the tournament as I was the short stack by a big margin. IMO, the players that whines and moans about a player making a wrong call against them, and then sucking out, it is a glass half-empty type of person. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2009, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/9 "2009-03-20T17:52:13Z")
I apologise that I didn’t make it clear - I was calm and relaxed about the hand. (I just wanted sympathy! 🙂 ) As you wisely remark, having over-confident and wild players is good in the long run for the game … “show me the money!” In fact I managed to give an fake impression of being steamed and on tilt :eek: when I picked up QQ next hand and went all-in. As I said, two callers … but both outdrew me. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2009, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/10 "2009-03-21T06:57:27Z")
> [@notfrommensa](#): > > IMO, the players that whines and moans about a player making a wrong call against them, and then sucking out, it is a glass half-empty type of person. That’s why I make sure not to do it. I love sucking out. 1500/3000 blinds folded around to me one in front of the button with 5,000. A9 suited. All-in. BB calls. …turns over AA. Shit. ☹ Flop 9, Turn 9. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2009, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/11 "2009-03-21T20:07:16Z")
If the hand that is supposed to win with an 85% chance actually won 85% of the time, poker would be boring. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2009, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/12 "2009-03-21T20:19:58Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > …Flop 9, Turn 9. 😃 You are a foul and disgusting creature. I look forward to going to Hell, if only to see you there! ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2009, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/13 "2009-03-21T21:25:31Z")
The first time I saw a straight flush in a money game , I was playing 7 card and had a well hidden kings full. I only had lint left in my pocket that night. ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2009, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/14 "2009-03-21T21:41:20Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > The first time I saw a straight flush in a money game , I was playing 7 card and had a well hidden kings full. I only had lint left in my pocket that night. Me too, a home game many years ago. playing 7 card stud hi-lo, 6-4-3-2-A was the best possible low hand at this table. (straights and flushes counted against a low hand). I was in the hand with Queens Full of Kings with two other players. These two player had a low cards showing. I’m betting and raising the limit at every opportunity, my opponents ditto. We finally finish betting, both players roll over the perfect low and 6 high straight flushes to shut me out of both ends of the pot. I have played a lot 7 card stud in my time and this was the only time I have ever seen a straight flush and it was on the same hand! And it was a hand where I had the nut full house as Aces were on the board and my Queens were full of Kings. For the record, in Texas Hold’m, I have seen two players flop a royal flush. thankfully, i was not in the pot on either occasion. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/15 "2009-03-22T08:59:18Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > You are a foul and disgusting creature. I look forward to going to Hell, if only to see you there! Hey, I was just hoping to pick up the blinds. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![straggler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@straggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straggler)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/16 "2009-03-22T12:50:39Z")
I was playing a $20 single table Sit n Go about a week ago, how’s this for a donkish play: I have about 1,200 Table maniac has about 3,000 Blinds are 50/100 I get JT offsuit. Everyone folds around to me in the small blind, I bet 300. Table Maniac in the big blind calls. Flop comes Ac, 10d, 9s. I check, knowing full well the maniac is going to bet hard, as he’d been doing all game. He bets 550. I push all in for 900. Table maniac calls and shows… 4s, 5d. This is in a $20 single table SnG, on Full Tilt poker. I guess he felt pot committed, but wowee. My heart skipped a beat when a 5 came on the turn, but the river blanked and I took down the pot. One interesting thing about “bad beats”. You never really hear professional poker players talk about bad beats. They talk instead about “variance”. As people in this thread have stated, you want those suckers to call with their weak hands, because you will win the pot the majority of the time. Sure you’ll cop some outrageous runner-runner suck outs, but that’s the exception, not the rule. In the long run, you will come out ahead by having suckers call you with their miles-behind hands. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/17 "2009-03-22T17:20:09Z")
> [@straggler](#): > > One interesting thing about “bad beats”. You never really hear professional poker players talk about bad beats. They talk instead about “variance”. Yeah, I’ve been getting the shit varianced out of me lately. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/18 "2009-03-22T17:25:14Z")
You most certainly hear about bad beats from professionals - some of them are quite vocal about their bad experiences. > [@notfrommensa](#): > > For the record, in Texas Hold’m, I have seen two players flop a royal flush. thankfully, i was not in the pot on either occasion. This isn’t possible. ---
**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/19 "2009-03-22T17:45:20Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > This isn’t possible. He means on two separate hands. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/20 "2009-03-22T17:46:16Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > If the hand that is supposed to win with an 85% chance actually won 85% of the time, poker would be boring. Are you saying the true odds don’t happen in the long run? I don’t think poker will ever be boring: - it’s about money 🆒 - there is a chance the weaker player will win in the short run > [@gonzomax](#): > > The first time I saw a straight flush in a money game , I was playing 7 card and had a well hidden kings full. I only had lint left in my pocket that night. The first time I played poker (in a home game with good friends), I drew a flush on the second hand. Went all-in - just £5! ($7) - and lost to a full house. I watched the game, read books and ate the nibbles for the rest of the night. > [@straggler](#): > > One interesting thing about “bad beats”. You never really hear professional poker players talk about bad beats. They talk instead about “variance”. As people in this thread have stated, you want those suckers to call with their weak hands, because you will win the pot the majority of the time. Sure you’ll cop some outrageous runner-runner suck outs, but that’s the exception, not the rule. In the long run, you will come out ahead by having suckers call you with their miles-behind hands. Good players probably don’t get involved when they are way behind, so they don’t get as many lucky wins. Therefore good players suffer more bad beats (though I agree variance is a good way to describe the process of winning in the long run). At the World Series of Poker, I saw two guys with a table just outside the playing room. Their sign said ‘For $20, we will listen and sympathise over your bad beats!’. Now that’s enterprising. 🙂 > [@notfrommensa](#): > > For the record, in Texas Hold’m, I have seen two players flop a royal flush. thankfully, i was not in the pot on either occasion. > [@SenorBeef](#): > > This isn’t possible. I think notfrommensa means he’s seen a royal flush flopped twice. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104.md?page=2)