# poker odds question (OK, a bad beat story too!) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 20, 2009, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104 "2009-03-20T01:24:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/21 "2009-03-22T17:47:54Z")
OK, I told my mate about you poker aficianados and he wants to know: If you hold 78 offsuit, what is the preflop chance that you will improve to a straight if you stay in the hand all the way? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/22 "2009-03-22T17:51:40Z")
> [@glee](#): > > I think notfrommensa means he’s seen a royal flush flopped twice. Woops, yeah, duh. I was thinking in the context of the other stories in which 2 big hands butted heads. I thought he meant something like one guy had the 98x and the other had AKx and the flop came TJQx. ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2009, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/23 "2009-03-22T22:08:58Z")
> [@glee](#): > > OK, I told my mate about you poker aficianados and he wants to know: > > If you hold 78 offsuit, what is the preflop chance that you will improve to a straight if you stay in the hand all the way? I have a calculator that says 3%, overall chance of winning at 12%, at a nine-player table. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/24 "2009-03-23T00:14:56Z")
> [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](#): > > I have a calculator that says 3%, overall chance of winning at 12%, at a nine-player table. Thanks! I presume you mean a 12% total chance of winning, whether or not you make the straight (i.e. some winning hands are paired 7s or 8s). ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/25 "2009-03-23T00:39:54Z")
Yes, it I have seen two royal flushes flopped on two separate hands. One in a home game another at a casino in a tournament. ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/26 "2009-03-23T03:59:05Z")
> [@glee](#): > > Thanks! > > I presume you mean a 12% total chance of winning, whether or not you make the straight (i.e. some winning hands are paired 7s or 8s). Correct. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/27 "2009-03-23T07:13:11Z")
I got a royal once on Full Tilt. Problem was I was experimenting with game options and I wasn’t able to click off Auto-Muck fast enough. Didn’t even get to show it down IIRC. Even worse, I was trying Multi-Colored Decks at the time so my screen shot looks stupid. I have a GREEN Royal Flush. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/28 "2009-03-23T10:03:18Z")
> [@glee](#): > > OK, I told my mate about you poker aficianados and he wants to know: > > If you hold 78 offsuit, what is the preflop chance that you will improve to a straight if you stay in the hand all the way? > [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](#): > > I have a calculator that says 3%, overall chance of winning at 12%, at a nine-player table. > [@glee](#): > > Thanks! > > I presume you mean a 12% total chance of winning, whether or not you make the straight (i.e. some winning hands are paired 7s or 8s). > [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](#): > > Correct. Could I trespass on your kindness\* further? If it’s no trouble, what are the same figures for 23 offsuit and AK offsuit? \*just adding some old-fashioned vocabulary there… ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/29 "2009-03-23T14:51:32Z")
The [online poker calculator](http://www.pokercalculatoronline.com/) that I use, doesn’t compute such odds, I wish i knew one that did. Assuming 7-8 Offsuit has a 3% chance of a straight then wouldn’t A-K have about 0.75% chance of making a straight? There are 4 possible straights with 7-8. (8 high, 9 high, 10 high, and J high) while “Broadway” is the only one possible straight with A-K. Yes, I know a Q-high straight is possible with 7-8 but I think it is redundant straight in the terms of the probability of making a straight as the board has to include 9-10-J. remember with A-K, your straight would always be the “nut straight”. With 7-8, your straight would not necessarily be the highest with a board of 9-10-J. ---
**Author:** ![wintertime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c68b51/32.png) [@wintertime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wintertime)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/30 "2009-03-23T17:11:39Z")
> [@](#): > > Are you saying the true odds don’t happen in the long run? – **glee** How close are you to immortal? 😉 Seriously, you can play 100,000 hands or even a million and the odds will still be skewed; whether the actual hands of one evening follow any probability at all, is pretty much coincidental. Yesterday, I played for slightly more than half an hour (got lucky, made my quota in no time) and got 7 times TT in my pockets: the chances to get a specific pocket pair are 1/221 (6 combinations of 2 cards from a deck of 52 = 6/1,326 = 1/221) and 32 hands were dealt in the time .. ha! > [@](#): > > If it’s no trouble, what are the same figures for 23 offsuit and AK offsuit? You can calculate the hand strength of any hole cards against n opponent hands – some players actually do that while playing .. but I question the usefulness of such an approach if you aren’t a math genius .. and even then .. The categories of hole cards that give you a nice equity preflop are well known and make up the categories of recommendable starting hands; AK is more difficult to play than any simple calculation reveals. Take a look [here](http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=11608023&Searchpage=1&Main=11608023&Words=%2B%26quot%3Btheory%26quot%3B+-%26quot%3Bre%26quot%3B&topic=&Search=true#Post11608023)for a discussion that is a little bit more in depth. 23 is a hand you’d play for the **Implied Odds** and they get better the looser your table is; but such hole cards mean you play your position first. Calling with 23 UTG on FR is plain stupid but it might be worthwhile in late position. it all depends on the table. I don’t mean to say that calculations are meaningless, quite to the contrary: equity calculations according to the ICM work well for me in bubble time in tourneys. But I had the highest fluctuation in my profit graph when I gave probability too much credit. A week ago, I stumbled with AA into the following flop against KK for the fourth time in the last three months: AKK. Highly unlikely? You bet. Still, it happened. Again. Fortunately, we had done the 4bet dance preflop, play TAG and he didn’t flinch when I bet on the flop. Hand couldn’t have been deader if he had nuked it from orbit. ---
**Author:** ![wintertime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c68b51/32.png) [@wintertime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wintertime)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/31 "2009-03-23T17:42:22Z")
> [@](#): > > Yesterday, I played for slightly more than half an hour (got lucky, made my quota in no time) and got 7 times TT in my pockets Damn, I mixed up two stats: although I had 7 pocket pairs, “only” five of them were TT – unlikely still, but nowhere close to my previous statement. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![straggler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@straggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straggler)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2009, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/32 "2009-03-23T18:57:15Z")
> [@wintertime](#): > > How close are you to immortal? 😉 > Seriously, you can play 100,000 hands or even a million and the odds will still be skewed Hardly. Play a hand a million times over that you can expect to win 85% of the time, and the chances that you will have won it outside the range of 84.9% and 85.1% of the time are _mighty_ slim. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/33 "2009-03-24T00:03:03Z")
> [@glee](#): > > Are you saying the true odds don’t happen in the long run? > [@wintertime](#): > > How close are you to immortal? 😉 > Seriously, you can play 100,000 hands or even a million and the odds will still be skewed; whether the actual hands of one evening follow any probability at all, is pretty much coincidental. I’m afraid I need a cite for that. :eek: When I was young, I decided to test a dice I had. So I rolled it 30,000 times\* and recorded the results. They were within 99% of expected value. \*I am not joking. ---
**Author:** ![Cyberhwk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7993a0/32.png) [@Cyberhwk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cyberhwk)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/34 "2009-03-24T07:56:32Z")
**Weird hand today:** Blinds just 25/50 early in a tournament. I’m SB. Four callers I’ve got 33 and just complete. BB checks. Flop comes 10h-7s-3s. I bet 150, BB raises to 300, all others fold, I re-raise to 800 (have about 700 left). Here’s where it gets weird. BB thinks I’m all in and turns his cards up (evidently they’re still live as long as you’re heads up :rolleyes:). He shows Ts4s right as a 4h falls on the turn. So right now he’s two pair with a flush draw and I’m still ahead with bottom set. So what do I do? I know I’m ahead, but I also know he’s definitely got outs. I could CHECK and if he checks I could see the river for free to see if he hits his flush. However if he DOESN’T and I bet into him I won’t get paid off. However if I push NOW, he stacks me if he hits his flush. What to do? **elucidator** , you got your wish. I chose to push. He rivered a 4 for a higher Full House. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2009, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/35 "2009-03-24T11:24:06Z")
> [@Cyberhwk](#): > > **Weird hand today:** > > Blinds just 25/50 early in a tournament. I’m SB. Four callers I’ve got 33 and just complete. BB checks. > > Flop comes 10h-7s-3s. I bet 150, BB raises to 300, all others fold, I re-raise to 800 (have about 700 left). > > Here’s where it gets weird. BB thinks I’m all in and turns his cards up (evidently they’re still live as long as you’re heads up :rolleyes:). He shows Ts4s right as a 4h falls on the turn. So right now he’s two pair with a flush draw and I’m still ahead with bottom set. > > So what do I do? I know I’m ahead, but I also know he’s definitely got outs. I could CHECK and if he checks I could see the river for free to see if he hits his flush. However if he DOESN’T and I bet into him I won’t get paid off. However if I push NOW, he stacks me if he hits his flush. > > What to do? > > **elucidator** , you got your wish. I chose to push. He rivered a 4 for a higher Full House. ☹ The club I play at says revealing cards prematurely means your hand is dead. I even got knocked out for standing up (to move a side table). As for your decision, it was correct. The odds were with you, so that’s how you should play. ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/36 "2009-03-25T06:18:54Z")
> [@glee](#): > > Could I trespass on your kindness further? > If it’s no trouble, what are the same figures for 23 offsuit and AK offsuit? 32o: I’m getting 7% chance of win/split on a table of 9. (Eight others presumably being random hands.) AKo: 20% win/split. Not as good as I would have thought. BTW, these are according to TexasCalculatem, a standalone odds calculator. I have no idea if there is a better one available. ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/37 "2009-03-25T06:23:47Z")
> [@notfrommensa](#): > > Assuming 7-8 Offsuit has a 3% chance of a straight then wouldn’t A-K have about 0.75% chance of making a straight? There are 4 possible straights with 7-8. (8 high, 9 high, 10 high, and J high) while “Broadway” is the only one possible straight with A-K. It’s giving me 3% chance of making the straight, which doesn’t seem logical. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/38 "2009-03-25T14:36:32Z")
> [@glee](#): > > Are you saying the true odds don’t happen in the long run? > I don’t think poker will ever be boring: Of course I can’t REALLY say that, but it sure seems like it, doesn’t it? For example, the last time I played hold’em, we played maybe 40 hands total. One guy finished a straight on the river on THREE DIFFERENT OCCASIONS where his hand was much weaker on the turn, to beat someone who went all in against him before the river. There were 5 of us playing. Can you imagine having three different people (out of 4 total!) knocked out in the same exact way, who were all the #2 chip holders at the time? He finished a straight on the river a total of nine times that evening. My argument is that stories like this happen every game. Poker never turns out how you expect it to, even if the odds eventually represent reality over the long term. It’s frustrating and nerve-wracking and exciting at the same time, but it’s too much for me to handle often. ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/39 "2009-03-25T16:10:53Z")
People tend to remember the aberrations rather than the times when things go normally. And also remember, that if you played 40 ‘hands’ of poker with 5 of you playing, there were actually 200 hands, not 40. The odds of getting a pocket pair on any one hand is about 17 to 1 but in a nine player game that works about to be a pocket pair every other deal. while waiting for a casino tournament, a fellow participant commented to me how often he sees A-K lose at final showdown. Yep, it does lose a lot of hands. But IMO, the reason why it loses a lot of hands is because it is simply plays almost every hand it can. It has more occassions to lose a hand at showdown than a 9-7 offsuit as 9-7 offsuit gets folded most of the time pre-flop. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/40 "2009-03-25T17:30:14Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > Of course I can’t REALLY say that, but it sure seems like it, doesn’t it? > > For example, the last time I played hold’em, we played maybe 40 hands total. One guy finished a straight on the river on THREE DIFFERENT OCCASIONS where his hand was much weaker on the turn, to beat someone who went all in against him before the river. There were 5 of us playing. Can you imagine having three different people (out of 4 total!) knocked out in the same exact way, who were all the #2 chip holders at the time? He finished a straight on the river a total of nine times that evening. > > My argument is that stories like this happen every game. Poker never turns out how you expect it to, even if the odds eventually represent reality over the long term. It’s frustrating and nerve-wracking and exciting at the same time, but it’s too much for me to handle often. As notfrommensa says ‘People tend to remember the aberrations rather than the times when things go normally.’ [This is a known phenomenon.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) I think many people don’t remember how well they do over the long run either. In one home game where I played, i asked every player at the end of the year how they’d done. Responses were: “I’m well ahead.” “I’m ahead.” “I make a small profit.” “I break even.” “I haven’t lost overall.” Given I had kept records and knew I was up a fair amount…this couldn’t be correct. Nobody thought they had lost! :eek:😕 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104.md?page=3)