# poker odds question (OK, a bad beat story too!)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [March 20, 2009, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104 "2009-03-20T01:24:22Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/41 "2009-03-25T17:32:09Z")

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> [@notfrommensa](#):
>
> Assuming 7-8 Offsuit has a 3% chance of a straight then wouldn’t A-K have about 0.75% chance of making a straight? There are 4 possible straights with 7-8. (8 high, 9 high, 10 high, and J high) while “Broadway” is the only one possible straight with A-K.

You could make A2345 too.

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**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/42 "2009-03-25T19:04:42Z")

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> [@glee](#):
>
> You could make A2345 too.

Yep, I forgot about the wheel.

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**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/43 "2009-03-25T20:07:21Z")

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> [@notfrommensa](#):
>
> Yep, I forgot about the wheel.

If you’re going to count “4-card” straights like A-5 then you should count the K-high for AKo and both the 7-high and Q-high for 78o. AKo can make 3 straights (K-high, A-high, 5-high) of which 2 are the nuts. 78o can make 6 straights (7-high through Q-high) of which only 8-high is the guaranteed nuts (right?).

I’m wondering if maybe the odds variation **Oslo** is getting is due to the calculator taking into account that many of the 78o straights will be non-nut straights, while AK more often makes the nut straight. I could see that the odds of making a \*\*winning[\b] straight with 78o and AKo being about the same.

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**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2009, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poker-odds-question-ok-a-bad-beat-story-too/490104/44 "2009-03-25T20:41:23Z")

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[quote=“Jas09, post:43, topic:490104”]

If you’re going to count “4-card” straights like A-5 then you should count the K-high for AKo and both the 7-high and Q-high for 78o. AKo can make 3 straights (K-high, A-high, 5-high) of which 2 are the nuts. 78o can make 6 straights (7-high through Q-high) of which only 8-high is the guaranteed nuts (right?).

QUOTE]

when you have A-K, the King high straight is redundant. It would not be another possible straight in my example. If you make the King high straight, you automatically make the Ace high straight. Likewise, for the 7 high straight, when holding 7-8 offsuit.

In my example, Broadway and the 8 high straight would not be the “guaranteed nuts” but they would be the Nut Straight. Depending on the cards on the board there could be a higher hand.

{if no pairs or 3 suited cards then they would be the nuts}

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