# Poland elections: Law & Justice Party appears to have been defeated **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 16, 2023, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637 "2023-10-16T03:58:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/1 "2023-10-16T03:58:25Z")
Poles went to the polls today. The Law & Justice party, in power since 2015, was hoping for a third term, but it appears to have fallen short. Exit polls indicate that L&J came in first in the popular vote, but with only 36.8 % of votes cast. If that holds up, when seats are divvied up, the three opposition parties will likely hold a majority in the Sejm, and have vowed to turf the L&J government. This election had the highest turnout since Poland’s democratic government was established. > [@](#): > > It’s a stunning defeat for PiS, which has been in power since 2015. > > The party mobilized the full resources of the state to help it win, and it was also strongly backed by state media — which are firmly in the ruling party’s camp. However, PiS was hobbled by a growing number of scandals — including allegations that officials were selling visas for bribes. Eight years of tensions and social conflict, with fights over abortion, rule of law, grain imports from Ukraine, and awful relations with the EU, which has frozen the payout of billions over rule of law worries, also eroded support for PiS. > > Even a last-minute referendum with four tendentious questions designed to make the opposition look bad failed to galvanize PiS voters; the referendum fell short of the 50 percent participation rate needed to be counted. > … > The opposition warned that a third PiS term would turn Poland firmly away from liberal democracy by cementing the ruling party’s hold on the judiciary, media and state corporations — moving Poland in the direction of Hungary’s illiberal democracy. > **[Opposition wins Polish election, according to exit poll](https://www.politico.eu/article/opposition-wins-polish-election-according-to-exit-poll-poland-kaczynski-duda-tusk-election-rule-of-law/)** > > If vote counting confirms the result, it would mark a dramatic change of direction after a very hard-fought election campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/2 "2023-10-16T05:16:37Z")
This is definitely a remarkable and heartening result. PiS is still the leading party but in absolute terms this is a significant defeat for them. Of course, they are unlikely to just back down and defer to the opposing coalition (as would happen in a normal European democracy; compare **[the immediate resignation of government after losing control in my own country’s election last week](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2124053.html)**). This is a good thing, but this is also where the _really_ hard work starts for pro-democratic reformers. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/3 "2023-10-16T13:58:37Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > This is definitely a remarkable and heartening result. Yes; I was coming here to post this if nobody else had yet. We can all use a ray of good news right now, however small. Here’s NPR’s take: > **[Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win as ruling conservatives lose majority](https://www.npr.org/2023/10/15/1206033591/poland-votes-in-an-election-seen-as-the-most-important-of-its-3-decade-old-democ)** > > At stake are Poland's legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/4 "2023-10-16T15:02:41Z")
I hope this works out. I don’t know anything about Polish politics, but historically coalitions where the only thing the parties have in common is opposition to the ruling party tend to be fragile things. Will these three parties be able to work together when it gets down to the business of governing? How will they find compromise on issues where they’re pretty far apart? For the sake of Poles, I hope they manage it. Because if they don’t, they may just end up making Law & Justice stronger in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/5 "2023-10-16T15:15:47Z")
I also know absolutely zero about Polish politics, but have been around other politics long enough to know that any party calling itself the law and justice party is very likely to not represent either. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/6 "2023-10-16T15:21:04Z")
The headline of this thread is a mite confusing, if one doesn’t know that “Law & Justice” is the name of the political party, and not a description of principles. I am glad to realize the correct context. One hopes for the best, of course, that the opposition parties are better than the one losing control, and that they are able to find a way to govern. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/7 "2023-10-16T15:28:24Z")
So just to be clear for those of us not in the know: does this imply a public shift to the left, or just fatigue with the party in power and its scandals? ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2023, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/8 "2023-10-16T15:57:29Z")
I’m not an expert on domestic Polish politics by any means, but the view from Western Europe, as far as I can tell, is that this shouldn’t be seen as a general move to the left. Poland is a very conservative country by European standards, especially on social matters like immigration and LGBT+ issues, and that’s unlikely to change much. (Note there was also a question about migrants on the ballot which was boycotted to undercut its legitimacy, rather than allowing it to fail.) The issues that looked from here to be most significant are the worsening relationship with the EU and, especially, Poland’s stance toward Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. The far-right Konfederacja party (Confederation), already a minority, was taking a pro-Russian stance, and they got wrecked in the election; their loss of support is a big reason why PiS won’t be able to form a coalition and retain power. Of course, from where I am in Europe, _of course_ these broader continental issues would be perceived as being important, because we’re all self-interested. 🙂 This looks to be good commentary by Poles in the know. Pay attention to their cautions on how critical ministries and administrative functions have been packed with PiS loyalists; it’s going to be a major project to dislodge them before any meaningful progress can be made on many fronts. > **[Poland election: the opposition has claimed victory – what happens next? |...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/16/poland-election-opposition-victory-democracy-europe)** > > Our panel considers what the populist ruling party’s apparent defeat could mean for democracy and Poland’s place in Europe ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2023, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/9 "2023-10-18T02:17:29Z")
The electoral commission has confirmed the vote count predicted by the exit polls. The three opposition parties will likely have 248 seats in the 460 seat Sejm. The president, who supports the Law & Justice party, will likely ask the current PM, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, if he can form a government. Assuming that fails, the president should turn to Donald Tusk, the leader of the largest opposition party. > [@](#): > > The opposition had already warned Poles it was their “last chance” to save democracy. The election commission put the turnout at 74.38% , the highest since the fall of communism in 1989. > > After the results were officially confirmed, Mr Tusk said the “winning democratic parties” were in constant touch and ready to start governing at any time. > **[Poland election: Tusk's opposition eyes power after pivotal vote](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67123584)** > > Eight years of rule under the right-wing Law and Justice party could soon come to an end. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2023, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/10 "2023-10-19T15:06:30Z")
A lot seems to depend on coalitions, but given the incumbent alleged media dominance, it seems a majority of the Polish people want a less caustic alternative. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2023, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/11 "2023-10-19T19:12:01Z")
> [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > The headline of this thread is a mite confusing, if one doesn’t know that “Law & Justice” is the name of the political party, and not a description of principles. I am glad to realize the correct context. I completely misunderstood too. It’s sort of like posting a thread saying, “Democratic rule is now over in the US!” And then the thread is about the Democratic Party lost the House or something. ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/12 "2023-10-22T13:22:48Z")
Obviously, the title was fully intentional, in fine click bait form. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/13 "2023-10-22T13:55:33Z")
The title of this thread uses the name, in English, of the political party in question, as used in the very first paragraph of the Politico news article linked in the OP. Fail to see how that is click bait. Are we not supposed to use the name of the party? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/14 "2023-10-22T14:23:13Z")
But thanks for assuming bad faith ---
**Author:** ![chela](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chela/32/21582_2.png) [@chela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chela)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/15 "2023-10-22T14:27:15Z")
Considering your audience is mostly US based yes I’d say your thread title needs clarity. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/16 "2023-10-22T14:33:59Z")
Considering it’s clear what @Northern_Piper meant within the first two sentences, I disagree. Unless the worry is that people will clutch their pearls and fall the floor having a heart attack over reading a thread title that they somehow interpret as the very concepts of law and justice being defeated in an election. ---
**Author:** ![chela](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chela/32/21582_2.png) [@chela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chela)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/17 "2023-10-22T14:36:53Z")
Nothing posted on this board would make me faint. It was the second post that cleared it up for me. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/18 "2023-10-22T14:38:20Z")
Adding “party” between “Justice” and “appears” would have been clarifying. I was confused, too, as I only know it as Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, as the only time I hear about them is when my parents talk about them (they just got back from a trip to Poland and were talking about the election.) The translation never even occurred to me in my head. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/19 "2023-10-22T16:59:57Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Considering it’s clear what @Northern_Piper meant within the first two sentences, I disagree. I don’t think you know what “click bait” means. It means having a misleading title to cause someone to click on it, and you don’t realize the truth until you’re already reading the article. That’s the point of click bait; trick people into reading it for page counts. You’re actually supporting the claim. Now, I personally don’t think it was intentional. But there was definitely ambiguity in the thread title for anyone not familiar with Polish politics, which I expect is the vast majority of SDMB readers. We skew American here, and the politics of Poland don’t often affect what happens here, at least in an overt way. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2023, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637/20 "2023-10-22T18:01:45Z")
**Moderating:** As long as @Aspenglow has made the change, please drop the meta-conversation about the vague title’s merits. ETA: Thank you @flurb [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poland-elections-law-justice-party-appears-to-have-been-defeated/991637.md?page=2)