It’s hard to imagine a Trump in Canada. Even if I can’t stand Harper, he is no Trump.
Maybe the closest is here in Quebec. Pierre Karl Peladeau is one of the richest men in the province, notable, among other things, as a union buster in his business (being a media magnate). During the last election he suddenly joined the Parti Quebecois as a separatist fanatic. Now the PQ was founded as a separatist party, but also Social-Democratic and was always strongly supported by the labour unions. While they have retreated from their social-democratic roots and out and out union buster does not fit well. After the party’s disastrous defeat in the last provincial election, the leader resigned and PKP was chosen to replace her. He has rather ordinary hair, though. Still the next election campaign is likely to be bizarre. Especially since the current Liberal government hasn’t endeared itself to anybody (largely because it is trying to balance the budget without raising taxes).
A Trump would be unthinkable in Canada and in much of Europe, though not because Europeans are smarter or more virtuous than Americans. Rather, it’s because most European nations have worked very hard to ensure that the People have as little say as possible in how things are run.
Mark Steyn put it well: most European countries have two major parties: the slightly left of center party and the slightly right of the slightly left of center party. Whether they’re called the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats, the Labour Party and the Tories, or the Socialists and the Gaulists, the two major parties in most of Europe are in full agreement on all the major issues, and jointly decide that certain issues are NOT up for debate and certain political stances are not legitimate.
Neither the “liberal” NOR the “conservative” parties in Sweden, say, accept the notion that mass immigration might be a bad thing, so a candidate who opposes mass immigration can’t get the nomination of either party. Which is why so many Swedish voters are turning to what used to be a reviled racist party.
Neither the French Socialists nor the Gaulists will listen to the concerns of French voters who aren’t convinced that mass immigration has a downside. SO, those voters turn to NON-mainstream politicians, like Marine LePen.
Unelected EU bosses are ORDERING European nations to take in huge numbers of (supposed) refugees from (supposedly) the Middle East. No European nation WANTS to do so, but people who disagree with the consensus of EU bureaucrats are ignored, and their opinions are treated as illegitimate.
Europe is FILLED with people who agree with Donald Trump, and would like to vote for a candidate who espouses his beliefs. But self-styled “mainstream” parties don’t care what the voters want.
So let me get this straight; lots of Europeans disagree with the way things their two parties run things, so they turn to “non mainstream” parties. But, somehow, those non mainstream parties cannot scrounge up enough votes to win elections. What’s wrong with this picture?
I would be cautious about getting my political insight from Mark Steyn.
Marine LePen and UKIP have gotten more than enough votes to prove that there are LOTS of people in Europe who share the opinions of America’s Trump supporters.
The Swedish Democrats were a joke party not long ago. Nobody in Sweden is laughing now.
No, the anti-immigration forces are not the majority in Europe OR America. Trump is NOT going to be the GOP nominee, let alone the President. But he’s speaking for more people than anyone would have guessed- here AND abroad.
The OP is a European, so he’s coming at the Trump question from a different angle than most SDMB regulars. On the SDMB, I hear often variations on “This is so embarrassing, how can I explain to my sophisticated, liberal European friends why Donald Trump is showing up in polls with 30% of the vote??” As if a Trump could NEVER succeed in Europe.
Italians would NEVER elect an egomaniacal billionaire publicity hound as Prime Minister! Except that… oops, they DID!
The French would NEVER turn to a xenophobic blowhard. Except… right now, polls show 30% of French voters support second generation xenophobic blowhard Marine LePen.
Surely in progressive Sweden, nobody would vote for an anti-immigrant party that used to be a mere racist fringe group. But the Swedish Democrats now get about 27% of the vote.
Point being, roughly 30% of Europeans share in the distaste for mass immigration that Trump’s followers show here in the USA. No, that’s nowhere close to a majority (thank God), but it’s a very significant minority.
Thaksin Shinawatra comes close in Thailand. Billionaire, populist. He was also so crooked that the the other crooks noticed and ran him out of the country. He’s living in self-imposed exile, because he’s facing a prison sentence for corruption if he ever comes back.
Actually that poll isn’t considered serious in Sweden because of its methods and usually the results of it aren’t picked up by media, only the absurdly high numbers for SD made it into the news. The real number is much lower, but still fairly high. They seem to be around 13-16% currently, which is a great result for them (it would be a great result for any party except the two big ones).
On the issue of immigration the latest poll turned out like this:
44% Thinks Sweden has accepted too many immigrants/refugees.
36% Thinks it’s good the way it is.
10% Thinks Sweden should accept more.
So there is actually a (very slight) majority for the current policy or a more liberal one.
But what many fail to look at is how important the responder thinks the issue is. My mother for example is nowadays very anti-immigration AND thinks that SD has the best policy on this issue but STILL won’t vote for SD because she doesn’t like their other policies.
My own stance (right now, liable to shift any second of course) is that we should probably slow down a bit and get our ducks in a row since our integration policy is not working and there’s a real housing shortage as well as an unemployment issue. We should also put pressure on other countries to accept more, since we are carrying a very large share of the load right now. No other country in the EU accepts even close to as many as we do per capita.
But I would still not vote for SD because I have been a politician myself and know what it takes. My main issue with SD is not so much its policies but its lack of actual governing competence. The SD politicians I have met have simply been grossly incompetent. They don’t understand how a budget works, they don’t understand how the departments or even political procedures work. Their proposals are never funded, usually extremely poorly researched and argued, and even more embarrassingly are usually not even directed at the right part of the government. In the municipality where I worked they would consistently make suggestions that were simply not in our jurisdiction. That’s like going to the Post Office to report a crime or to GAP asking for a hamburger.
They also have some real crazies, like one woman in municipality who said she couldn’t decide whether the ruling majority (that I was part of) should be ousted or executed. Or my favorite guy who said that if Sweden didn’t stop accepting refugees he would move to a country that refuses to accept immigrants.
Having said that they are definitely improving their competence at least on the national level, where they’re managing to get most of their proposals to the right address and even made their own budget. In my town they have yet to submit a budget proposal even though they’re on their third term.
Rickjay, it’s more complicated, and on the whole, astorian is right. I can only describe the Dutch situation, but our situation should interest you. Because
Geert Wilders, our Dutch Trump,
DID start out as a member of our version of the Republican Party, just like Trump does in the GOP;
had a falling out with them and started his own party, with almost sole emphasis on “enough with the forriners”;
has been in about 3 national elections,
has gotten enough votes to make his PVV the biggest political party (of the four large parties and five small parties in Dutch parliament) and yet…
STILL doesn’t have much influence on actual politics,
although he HAS domineered the public debate in immigrants and immigration for over 15 years now.