# Poll: Electoral College Predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 31, 2004, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174 "2004-10-31T17:41:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Kid\_A\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Kid\_A\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kid_A_1)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/1 "2004-10-31T17:41:09Z")
2 days before the election, so we need a thread for your predictions on the final tally of the Electoral College. Kerry. 279-259. I’m sure at least one doper will nail the numbers right on. ---
**Author:** ![devilsknew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4da419/32.png) [@devilsknew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/devilsknew)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/2 "2004-11-01T01:36:37Z")
272-266 Kerry ---
**Author:** ![stpauler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@stpauler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stpauler)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/3 "2004-11-01T02:22:23Z")
534 Kerry 4 Bush Good thing that ballot initiative passed in Colorado. 😉 Ok, in all seriousness, 279 Kerry 258 Bush 1 for Richie Robb abstaining in the wake of Bush’s WV victory. (Colorado ballot initiative doesn’t pass) ---
**Author:** ![Kid\_A\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@Kid\_A\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kid_A_1)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/4 "2004-11-01T15:38:19Z")
OK, I can see my thread sort of died here and has left me wondering, “Has someone already done this?” I did a search and couldn’t find anything or maybe it’s the most dopers don’t care about the election. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/5 "2004-11-01T16:22:59Z")
269 Bush 269 Kerry You heard it here first. ---
**Author:** ![Syntropy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Syntropy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Syntropy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/6 "2004-11-01T16:31:39Z")
I loved the Daily Show’s ad for their election coverage: “Watch the prelude to the recount here!” 272 Kerry 266 Bush Recount Wednesday morning. California secedes by Saturday. ---
**Author:** ![PigBoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/97f17d/32.png) [@PigBoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PigBoy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/7 "2004-11-01T17:16:23Z")
Kerry 286 Bush 252 ---
**Author:** ![NotWithoutRage](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/22d042/32.png) [@NotWithoutRage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotWithoutRage)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/8 "2004-11-01T17:19:36Z")
Kerry 271 Bush 269 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2004, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/9 "2004-11-01T18:06:25Z")
294-244, Kerry. But I think the popular is going to be closer than the electoral shows. I think Ohio, Florida and, yes, Missouri are going to be close. Missouri has a very tight gubernatorial race right now, and if things hold up weather-wise state-wide, I think the Dems will just snake the Pubs on turnout there. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/10 "2004-11-02T00:33:53Z")
C’mon people! Predict! Predict! Pull some numbers out of your ass if you’d like! (Just make sure they add up to 538) For **Kid\_A** , Happy ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/11 "2004-11-02T00:38:31Z")
Kerry 301 Bush 237 😃 ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/12 "2004-11-02T00:54:07Z")
> [@ITR champion](#): > > 269 Bush > 269 Kerry > > You heard it here first. Actually, I think I heard it on _Meet the Press_ first. 😉 But I agree that’d really be a fukup. Oh, well…I guess we can just let the S.Court pick again. I don’t actually know. Is a tie possible? BTW > [@NotWithoutRage](#): > > Kerry 271 Bush 269 Did I miss something or are you planning on voting more than once? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/13 "2004-11-02T01:29:55Z")
> [@](#): > > I don’t actually know. Is a tie possible? Absolutely. It would get tossed to the Republican-controlled House for the final answer. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/14 "2004-11-02T01:38:12Z")
> [@Happy Lendervedder](#): > > Absolutely. It would get tossed to the Republican-controlled House for the final answer. I knew I phrased that wrong. I realize it is a mathematical possibilty. IIRC it actually occurred in 1880? What I should have said was: With the way the states are divided (some are definitely gonna go one way or the other), considering that, is it still possible? Maybe better said this way. Are there enough undecided states left where a tie could result? It’s not as easy as it sounds. ---
**Author:** ![PunditLisa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/4af34b/32.png) [@PunditLisa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PunditLisa)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/15 "2004-11-02T01:55:33Z")
Bush 334 Kerry 206 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/16 "2004-11-02T02:04:37Z")
> [@](#): > > Maybe better said this way. > Are there enough undecided states left where a tie could result? > It’s not as easy as it sounds I see what you’re saying now, **t-**. Looking at [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com): If Bush and Kerry take all of their “Strong” and “Weak” states: Bush Strong ( **172** ) + Weak ( **33** ) = **205** Kerry Strong ( **91** ) + Weak ( **139** ) = **230** And we divvy up the “Barely” and “Tied” states thusly: Bush-- FL ( **27** ), OH ( **20** ), VA ( **13** ) and VT ( **4** ) Kerry-- PA ( **21** ), CO ( **9** ), NM ( **5** ) and HI ( **4** ) You get **269-269**. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/17 "2004-11-02T02:04:37Z")
Sure. Not likely, but… Kerry takes all of New England, wins big in New York (of course), and beats Bush in Jersey; loses Pennsylvania to Bush but takes surprisingly volatile Virginia in a squeaker; wins Ohio but loses in Florida; wins Michigan, squeaks by in Wisconsin, walks away easily in Illinois, beats Bush in Minnesota, wins Colorado but not New Mexico or Nevada, and cleans up nicely on the west coast. Oh, and Hawaii, as usual, goes with the Democrat despite the peculiar poll showing it up for grabs. Count 'em, that’s 269. Bush, in addition to Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado and Nevada, takes West Virginia, beats Kerry in Iowa and Missouri, and then cleans Kerry’s clock as expected in the south and in Indiana, and takes all of the west except New Mexico, and of course wins in Alaska. 269. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/18 "2004-11-02T02:10:12Z")
Damn. Umm, that scenario should’ve read Kerry winning in New Mexico but not Colorado or Nevada, not winning in Colorado but not New Mexico or Nevada. Oh well, **Happy Lendervedder’s** scenario seems a bit more likely anyhow (assuming “VT” was intended to be “NH”; if Kerry loses Vermont, hell will be sponsoring a snowball fight later the same evening) ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/19 "2004-11-02T02:18:44Z")
Thanks **Hap** you’re allright 😉 I thought it might be but hadn’t really figured it. I had googled some cites since it was joked about on MTP. But the ones I found were talking about electors defecting and all kinds of bullshit. Of course if it goes to the house it should go Bush but then they were talking about if it tied there, Cheney would get to break the tie and that’s when I said…take it to the _Dope_. 😉 I remember this same discussion (I think) back in 2000 when I was just a lurking little doper. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2004, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174/20 "2004-11-02T02:22:09Z")
Ahh, once you get north of NY, they all look the same to me. 🙂 Off topic, have you ever noticed VT and NH appear to be engaged in a state-line 69? Cheeky little buggahs. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-electoral-college-predictions/272174.md?page=2)