# Poll: military action against Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 18, 2005, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375 "2005-01-18T15:31:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2005, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/1 "2005-01-18T15:31:56Z")
Re: recent threads on the subject: > **[Is the Bush Admin already planning to "regime-change" Iran?](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=280486)** > > We’ve had several recent threads about Iran’s nuclear program, and whether U.S. or Israeli forces should bomb their nuclear facilities, and what would be the aftermath. The general consensus has been that an all-out U.S. invasion of Iran is highly... > **[Will the U.S. take military action against Iran?](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=297457)** > > Back in October we had a GD thread – http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=280486 – on the possibility that the Bush Administration was already planning “regime change” in Iran – if it survived the election. Now it has, and the Pubs... > **[If you've enjoyed Iraq, you'll love Iran](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=297309)** > > CNN reports that journalist Seymour Hersh, who broke the story of Abu Ghraib and who has a sterling reputation for integrity and good reporting, said that the US, not content with its magnificent and conclusive victory in Iraq, is planning for war... This is a simple poll asking whether you believe that Iran poses sufficient threat to US interests that US military action is warranted in the near future (let’s say within the next three years). The questions are these: 1. If Iran should develop a nuclear capability within the next few years, what, in your view, is the percentage likelihood that Iran would use such weapons (or make them available to another party) in a first strike on a neighbor or perceived enemy? 2. Yes or no: should the US carry out covert or overt raids on any facilities determined, beyond a reasonable doubt, to be supporting an Iranian nuclear program? 3. Yes or no: should the US carry out an invasion with the objective of regime change in Iran? Those wishing to editorialize should do so in the GD or Pit threads on this subject. My opinion: \<5%, No and No. I realize that the makup of the SDMB does not necessarily represent that of the general population, but I’m curious about the general attitude toward this issue. ---
**Author:** ![athelas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/5e9695/32.png) [@athelas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/athelas)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2005, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/2 "2005-01-18T15:37:12Z")
1. 99.95% 2. Yes. 3. Not right now, although attempting a coup might work considering the discontent among the younger generation. By the time Iraq looks up, this may be an option. ---
**Author:** ![fruitbat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/58f4c7/32.png) [@fruitbat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fruitbat)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2005, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/3 "2005-01-18T16:10:29Z")
1. I don’t know and I wouldn’t care to wait and find out. 2. Yes 3. No (btw a no on three is not imcompatible with a yes on two) ---
**Author:** ![picker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/picker/32/13969_2.png) [@picker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/picker)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2005, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/4 "2005-01-18T16:25:55Z")
**1. If Iran should develop a nuclear capability within the next few years, what, in your view, is the percentage likelihood that Iran would use such weapons (or make them available to another party) in a first strike on a neighbor or perceived enemy?** In a first strike? 5-10%. Retaliatory? 15-20% As a huge bargaining chip? 80% **2. Yes or no: should the US carry out covert or overt raids on any facilities determined, beyond a reasonable doubt, to be supporting an Iranian nuclear program?** No. Let the Israelis take care of it. Provide intel, logistics, even materiel support if absolutely needed, but the last thing we need is any direct military involvement. **3. Yes or no: should the US carry out an invasion with the objective of regime change in Iran?** No way in hell. I cannot think a realistic worse way to further destroy any credibility we have in the Arab and Islamic worlds. Hell, in the world at large. ---
**Author:** ![js\_africanus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/87869e/32.png) [@js\_africanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/js_africanus)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2005, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/5 "2005-01-18T17:11:45Z")
> [@El\_Kabong](#): > > 1. If Iran should develop a nuclear capability within the next few years, what, in your view, is the percentage likelihood that Iran would use such weapons (or make them available to another party) in a first strike on a neighbor or perceived enemy? They’ll do it right after India & Pakistan go toe-to-toe in nuclear combat. > [@](#): > > 1. Yes or no: should the US carry out covert or overt raids on any facilities determined, beyond a reasonable doubt, to be supporting an Iranian nuclear program? Only if Haliburton gets a no-bid contract to make up for the energy a nuclear plant would have produced. > [@](#): > > 1. Yes or no: should the US carry out an invasion with the objective of regime change in Iran? Not until we know what the regime will be changed into. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2005, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/6 "2005-01-18T17:16:36Z")
1. I can see the regime lashing out at Israel if they are on their last gasp of power. 2. Yes, but it would be better to allow Israel to do it. 3. No. Too hard and it would alienate many in the country who are secretly pro-western. ---
**Author:** ![Ephemera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8baadc/32.png) [@Ephemera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ephemera)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/7 "2005-01-19T02:38:33Z")
1. **If Iran should develop a nuclear capability within the next few years, what, in your view, is the percentage likelihood that Iran would use such weapons (or make them available to another party) in a first strike on a neighbor or perceived enemy?** Very small. If Kim Jong Il, India, and Pakistan haven’t gone nuclear, I see no reason to believe Iran would. 1. **Yes or no: should the US carry out covert or overt raids on any facilities determined, beyond a reasonable doubt, to be supporting an Iranian nuclear program?** Covert, sure. Overt? No. 1. **Yes or no: should the US carry out an invasion with the objective of regime change in Iran?** Hell no. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/8 "2005-01-19T04:06:13Z")
1. Iran will never use its nukes… unless attacked of course. They aren’t crazy. If you think US bombing is nasty… imagine a total freezing of all commercial ties and blockade. 2. Attacking will only delay things a year or two… either the US gives credible choices or accepts a nuclear Iran eventually. So no covert or overt makes sense. 3. Invasion ? Impossible. They might attempt supporting a coup d’etat at best. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/9 "2005-01-19T04:38:45Z")
Hi folks; thanks for the answers so far and for resisting as much as possible what may be an almost overwhelming urge to editorialize on the issue. Assuming this gets more than ten or 15 responses, I’ll tally up the results in a day or two. ---
**Author:** ![Giraffe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/giraffe/32/129_2.png) [@Giraffe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Giraffe)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/10 "2005-01-19T06:09:44Z")
1. 0.01% 2. No. 3. No. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/11 "2005-01-19T06:16:55Z")
1. 25% 2. Yes 3. Yes, assuming they have the afformentioned nukes and it’s a truly international effort under UN auspices. Otherwise, no. ---
**Author:** ![marky33](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@marky33](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marky33)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/12 "2005-01-19T11:02:52Z")
1. Impossible to say without context. 2. No 3, No ---
**Author:** ![Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carnac_the_Magnificent)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/13 "2005-01-19T14:14:56Z")
In this age of instant and pervasive media coverage, there is no such thing as large-scale covert military action. Should the US wage covert action against Iran, it will go “overt” within days–and then brace yourself for saturation media coverage and a sensational Congressional inquiry, followed by the airing of opinions on talk shows, newspaper editorial columns, and late-night monologues. My guess is that Israel may force the U.S.'s hand. Either way, Iran will get its nukes, but using even one weapon would likely trigger a devastating reprisal. A more worrisome issue: Will rogue elements in Iran (redundant, I know) share this technology with terrorist groups? I think it likely. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2005, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/14 "2005-01-19T17:10:47Z")
1. Very slim. Iranians are not crazy. 2. Oh yes, and the US invaded Iraq because WMD were present beyond a reasonable doubt. Of course not. 3. Heavens to Betsy, NO. ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/15 "2005-04-23T02:58:00Z")
1. 5% (right about even with U.S. using first-strike nukes) 2. No. 3. No. ---
**Author:** ![sleeping](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/839c29/32.png) [@sleeping](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sleeping)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/16 "2005-04-23T04:25:58Z")
1. Depends on the situation at the time (especailly what the US does) but let’s say 1%. 2. No. 3. Absolutely not. ---
**Author:** ![Lorenzo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4da419/32.png) [@Lorenzo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lorenzo)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/17 "2005-04-23T04:31:06Z")
1. Unlikely 2. No 3. No, no, no! ---
**Author:** ![1010011010](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/1/ea666f/32.png) [@1010011010](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/1010011010)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/18 "2005-04-23T05:38:12Z")
1. a small number % 2. No. Iran has a very well developed nuclear program. If there were sites identifiably devoted to a nuclear _weapons_ program, perhaps… power plant fuel processing is not a weapons program. 3. No. It didn’t work the last time. The situation will take care of itself as the next generation takes over, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![hyjyljyj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/0ea827/32.png) [@hyjyljyj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hyjyljyj)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/19 "2005-04-23T05:54:47Z")
1. Zero percent. Iran’s position is that the U.S. and Israel are Satan and need to be destroyed with nuclear weapons. So? Maybe they’re right. But still, zero percent. 2. No. Live and let live. The US has nuclear weapons–why shouldn’t every other nation on earth? Only if Iran does something nuclear on US soil first, which they never would, should we even think about reacting–and then only with U.N. permission. 3. No! Democracy is wrong for Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Iraq, and is far less safe for the world at large than Islamic totalitarianism. In fact, WE should quit stalling and switch over now before more people have to die. Think about it. Only when the world is one unified pan-Islamic state, as it should be, will there be no more need for talk of regime change and war. Then peace will rule the planet, and love will steer the stars. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2005, 8:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-military-action-against-iran/285375/20 "2005-04-23T08:56:08Z")
I think there’s a good chance Iran’s regime will reform itself. That said, absent such regime change: 1. 95% 2. Absolutely. Though we ought to get Israel or Russia to do it on our behalf. 3. No. Unless the Iranians attack us.