# Poll: Romney vs. Obama: You Decide **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2012, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039 "2012-11-06T03:10:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/41 "2012-11-06T17:41:44Z")
Obama 117. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/42 "2012-11-06T17:43:50Z")
I believe Obama is going to win because that’s what the polls say. As Nate Silver says, if the polls as a group are biased towards Obama by 2+ points, then Houston, we’ve got a problem. But I don’t see any reason to believe that that is more true of this election than of past elections. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/43 "2012-11-06T17:52:19Z")
As I understand the OP, this is a poll of who we think will win, not who we voted for. As it stands right now, short of systematic bias or error in polling, Obama is much more likely to win. And, for the sake of full disclosure, I didn’t vote for Obama or Romney. Obama 119 ---
**Author:** ![LonghornDave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@LonghornDave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonghornDave)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/44 "2012-11-06T19:32:15Z")
I think Romney wins most of the swing states and pulls out a comfortable EC win. I don’t expect we’ll know the results tonight though. I did not vote for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/45 "2012-11-06T19:37:16Z")
> [@LonghornDave](#): > > I think Romney wins most of the swing states and pulls out a comfortable EC win. I don’t expect we’ll know the results tonight though. > > I did not vote for Romney. Why do you think the polls will have gotten it so badly wrong? Why will the aggregate average polls in this election be particularly erroneous, as compared with their performance in previous elections? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/46 "2012-11-06T19:42:11Z")
> [@LonghornDave](#): > > I think Romney wins most of the swing states and pulls out a comfortable EC win. I don’t expect we’ll know the results tonight though. That seems unlikely. Its hard to see how Romney wins most of the swing states _and_ have the entire election hinge on one or two states where the vote total is so close that they won’t get called tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/47 "2012-11-06T19:52:01Z")
My prediction that Obama will win brings the score to 128-10. ---
**Author:** ![LonghornDave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@LonghornDave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonghornDave)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/48 "2012-11-06T19:54:29Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Why do you think the polls will have gotten it so badly wrong? Why will the aggregate average polls in this election be particularly erroneous, as compared with their performance in previous elections? I just think less enthusiasm for Obama this time around and more enthusiasm for the Republicans will reflect in drastically different turnout compared to 2008. The poll performance would be off simply because turnout has been predicted incorrectly. ---
**Author:** ![LonghornDave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@LonghornDave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonghornDave)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/49 "2012-11-06T19:57:34Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > That seems unlikely. Its hard to see how Romney wins most of the swing states _and_ have the entire election hinge on one or two states where the vote total is so close that they won’t get called tonight. Networks are much more hesitant to call a state that is close than in the past. I think the swing states will all be close enough that several of them don’t get called until tomorrow morning. I’m not predicting this will last a month or anything; I just don’t think it gets called tonight. Of course, the market seems to have a very different view than me, which I readily acknowledge. Mine is simply a gut feeling. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/50 "2012-11-06T19:58:33Z")
> [@Bad\_Penmanship](#): > > Totally an over-dramatic thread title, but who do you think will win? I’m really curious. For statistic purposes, really. Without any bickering, banting, ranting, insulting, offending, defending, or anything of the likes. > > Just the person you believe and a brief reason why. The name of the candidate who you believe will win the US Presidency of 2012. . . . You ain’t from around here, are ya? Obama 130, though, just so I don’t give the impression that I’m completely rejecting you. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/51 "2012-11-06T20:16:26Z")
Obama -1. I ninja’ed you all. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/52 "2012-11-06T20:19:59Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Obama -1. > > I ninja’ed you all. You’re definitely slap-happy today. Did you get enough sleep? ---
**Author:** ![Bad\_Penmanship](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9c0ed/32.png) [@Bad\_Penmanship](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bad_Penmanship)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/53 "2012-11-06T21:10:32Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > . . . You ain’t from around here, are ya? > > Obama 130, though, just so I don’t give the impression that I’m completely rejecting you. Haha I’m new! lol. As in I joined last night. I hadn’t realized there was a poll option and it was too late to edit. I realized how stupid i sounded lol. Feeling like an idiot. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/54 "2012-11-06T23:33:56Z")
I’m 141 for Obama, versus 11 for Romney. I think that Obama is more likely to win because that’s what all the evidence implies. It is, of course, possible that all of the evidence is in error, and all in the same direction, and that direction is such that Romney would actually win, but if one attaches caveats like that, then one can never figure anything out. ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/55 "2012-11-07T00:02:20Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I think Obama will win because I believe in math. Polls aren’t “math.” ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/56 "2012-11-07T00:11:13Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Polls aren’t “math.” Well, I guess there is room for [debate here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics): > [@](#): > > Some consider statistics to be a mathematical body of science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data,[5] while others consider it a branch of mathematics[6] concerned with collecting and interpreting data. ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/57 "2012-11-07T01:24:35Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Well, I guess there is room for [debate here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics): Polls aren’t “statistics.” ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/58 "2012-11-07T03:08:29Z")
> [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Polls aren’t “statistics.” They use statistics in their analysis. Heavily. Or do you think that polls simply consist of Cletus asking his neighbors which guy they like best for president? At any rate, I believe Obama will win because the mathematical (statistical) analysis of polling data is quite accurate. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039/59 "2012-11-07T13:48:02Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > Mittens 7. The polls are underestimating the anti-Obama enthusiasm. Romney 273, Obama 265 If only. > [@Rand\_Rover](#): > > Polls aren’t “statistics.” They’re tragedies. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-romney-vs-obama-you-decide/640039.md?page=2)