# Poll: Will the U.S. have a draft in the near future? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [December 27, 2004, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771 "2004-12-27T14:24:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Syntropy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/65b543/32.png) [@Syntropy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Syntropy)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/21 "2004-12-27T19:09:59Z")
Yes. We’re losing more soldiers now that the war has been declared “over” than we did while it was in full swing. The enlistment numbers are down, even for the [National Guard](http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/17/politics/17reserves.html?oref=login&oref=login): > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON, Dec. 16 - In the latest signs of strains on the military from the war in Iraq, the Army National Guard announced on Thursday that it had fallen 30 percent below its recruiting goals in the last two months and would offer new incentives, including enlistment bonuses of up to $15,000. > \ > The sharp decline in recruiting is significant because National Guard and Army Reserve soldiers now make up nearly 40 percent of the 148,000 troops in Iraq, and are a vital source for filling the ranks, particularly those who perform essential support tasks, like truck drivers and military police. and 60 minutes reports [over 5,000 deserters](http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/12/06/60II/main659336.shtml) since war was declared in Iraq. At some point, we’re going to run out of troops. ---
**Author:** ![UncleBill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/d26b3c/32.png) [@UncleBill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleBill)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/22 "2004-12-27T20:43:01Z")
**Maureen** , those numbers are for the Guard and Reserve. [The Marine Corps is doing fine with retention.](http://www.usmc.mil/marinelink/mcn2000.nsf/0/BA222ACE360D472885256F6B001DD595?opendocument) > [@](#): > > For fiscal year 2004, retention specialists met 100.8 percent of their goal for first-term Marines, and 137.3 percent of subsequent-term Marines. The Corps is currently ahead of schedule for the current fiscal year, as 65 percent of its retention goals have been met for first-term Marines, and 30 percent for subsequent-term Marines. [The Air Force has more recruits than it knows what to do with.](http://www.delawareonline.com/newsjournal/local/2004/12/13airforceflushwi.html) > [@](#): > > Despite heavy missions in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past three years, the U.S. Air Force is having no trouble recruiting new personnel and holding on to those already in the service. > > In fact, the Air Force is so flush with people that it finds itself about 20,000 people above the staffing ceiling of 359,700 set by Congress. At Dover Air Force Base, there now are 3,945 active-duty personnel, 523 more than the authorized ceiling of 3,422. The Air Force, Army, and Marines all met their Recruitment and Retention goals last year (Fiscal Year ended Sep 31). And the Army and Marines have increased their goals for this year. ---
**Author:** ![vinniepaz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b4bc9f/32.png) [@vinniepaz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vinniepaz)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/23 "2004-12-27T21:08:21Z")
Absolutely not. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/24 "2004-12-27T21:25:46Z")
Yes, if only because the current situation is mathematically unfeasible to maintain for the long haul, and the current Administration has burned too many bridges with the rest of the world for relief. ---
**Author:** ![KSO](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f07891/32.png) [@KSO](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KSO)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/25 "2004-12-27T23:07:36Z")
No. ---
**Author:** ![PinkMarabou](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ec9cab/32.png) [@PinkMarabou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PinkMarabou)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/26 "2004-12-27T23:09:31Z")
No. We won’t need it. Gap in social class turning into an abyss. ---
**Author:** ![Scruloose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e68b1a/32.png) [@Scruloose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scruloose)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/27 "2004-12-27T23:34:15Z")
No. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2004, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/28 "2004-12-27T23:37:21Z")
> [@PinkMarabou](#): > > No. > > We won’t need it. Gap in social class turning into an abyss. Enhance, please? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/29 "2004-12-28T00:48:53Z")
No, our military has evolved beyond the point where we need mass numbers, we need a few, highly skilled, highly motivated (volenteer), force with a substaintial investment in technology per warrior. This cost / fighter makes a draft counterporductive. I do beleive that talk about a draft is politically motivated by anti Bush forces. And am willing to reconsider my entire view of politics if W institutes a draft (unless a major emergency conflict occurs i.e. US vs. China) ---
**Author:** ![lost\_in\_the\_post](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/50afbb/32.png) [@lost\_in\_the\_post](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lost_in_the_post)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/30 "2004-12-28T00:58:39Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > Enhance, please? 😕 I believe PinkMarabou is referring to “economic conscription.” To expand, (1) Our job base has deteriorated over the years, and will continue to. Population continues to increase via birth rate and immigration. (2) So, young person, you say you’re unemployed? Well, join the military! Experience! Training! Benefits! Serve your country! Beats working at Wal-Mart (your other main option)! (3) I think you get the idea. Every dog has its day. Our (the US’) day is passing. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Babbington](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Mr.Babbington](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Babbington)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/31 "2004-12-28T01:17:14Z")
No. > [@](#): > > our military has evolved beyond the point where we need mass numbers, we need a few, highly skilled, highly motivated (volenteer), force with a substaintial investment in technology per warrior. This cost / fighter makes a draft counterporductive. This seems to be the best argument against a draft. War isn’t “Here’s a gun, here’s how to shoot it, now go kill some guys” anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Nightwatch\_Trailer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9dc877/32.png) [@Nightwatch\_Trailer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nightwatch_Trailer)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/32 "2004-12-28T01:39:35Z")
No. ---
**Author:** ![vibrotronica](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a9a28c/32.png) [@vibrotronica](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vibrotronica)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/33 "2004-12-28T01:49:21Z")
Yes. Can’t go to war against Iran without one! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/2bfe46/32.png) [@John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Carter_of_Mars)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/34 "2004-12-28T02:05:45Z")
No. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/35 "2004-12-28T02:38:34Z")
No. I can’t think of an easier way for the Republican party to find itself in the minority again. ---
**Author:** ![Toddly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/22d042/32.png) [@Toddly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toddly)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/36 "2004-12-28T05:03:04Z")
No ---
**Author:** ![vivalostwages](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d07c76/32.png) [@vivalostwages](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vivalostwages)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/37 "2004-12-28T05:54:20Z")
Yes, eventually. ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/38 "2004-12-28T07:23:05Z")
Unless there’s a nuclear 9/11, no (and even then maybe not). ---
**Author:** ![usar\_jag](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f0a364/32.png) [@usar\_jag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usar_jag)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/39 "2004-12-28T15:05:25Z")
Absolutely, unequivocally **NO**. (I speak from experience, too.) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2004, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771/40 "2004-12-28T15:29:46Z")
Not a chance. Unless the DPRK starts a war. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-the-u-s-have-a-draft-in-the-near-future/281771.md?page=3)