# Poll: Will there be a draft during the next presidential term? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 9, 2004, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403 "2004-10-09T21:59:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2004, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/1 "2004-10-09T21:59:42Z")
Now, obviously there’s no draft on the table right now. But we all know that congress can ram any old thing through in a week if needed, and we could see a draft appear virtually overnight. And yes, while I appreciate fellow Dopers efforts to fight ignorance by saying that there is no draft currently in the works, I find myself irritated at the vehemence with which they say it–essentially asserting that a draft will NEVER happen, and only tin-foil-hatters believe that one will. Well, now’s your chance to put your cards on the table, to place your bets for posterity, so that one side or the other can say “I told you so.” QUESTION: In your opinion, will there be a military draft in the United States during the next presidential election term (January 2005 through January 2009)? Answer yes or no. OPTIONAL: If yes, when will it be instituted. I vote YES. And I say Summer 2006. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2004, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/2 "2004-10-09T22:08:23Z")
Nope. No chance, no way. ---
**Author:** ![elfbabe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b782af/32.png) [@elfbabe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfbabe)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2004, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/3 "2004-10-09T22:23:01Z")
No way, nohow. And I’m the kind of paranoid liberal who sees vast right-wing conspiracies everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2004, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/4 "2004-10-09T23:59:18Z")
No way, Jose! ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/5 "2004-10-10T00:02:12Z")
No. Read George’s lips: no draft. Er… ---
**Author:** ![Eonwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eonwe/32/240_2.png) [@Eonwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eonwe)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/6 "2004-10-10T00:23:08Z")
Not a chance. Whomever the Powers that Be happen to be at that point, they are smart enough to know that that would be devistating for this country. ---
**Author:** ![gobear](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/8dc957/32.png) [@gobear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gobear)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/7 "2004-10-10T00:39:15Z")
If there is any lesson to be learned from this administration, its’ that they do not see any limits to their power. I don’t think that a draft is likely, but I wouldn’t rule it out. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/8 "2004-10-10T00:41:36Z")
It’s not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/9 "2004-10-10T00:50:06Z")
Both presidential candidates are firmly against it, so I say Yes. No, I mean no! I don’t see it right now. It would take a major war - perhaps against China - to allow a draft to be politically feasible. ---
**Author:** ![RandomLetters](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8edcca/32.png) [@RandomLetters](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandomLetters)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/10 "2004-10-10T00:55:44Z")
I would say that the chance of a draft occuring in the next Presidential term is roughly the same as the chance the USA will have to fight a major land war in the EU, China, Russia, or India, or against alien invaders. ---
**Author:** ![CrankyAsAnOldMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crankyasanoldman/32/11670_2.png) [@CrankyAsAnOldMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrankyAsAnOldMan)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/11 "2004-10-10T00:56:33Z")
Well, people aren’t really answering a poll here, but if you’re interested in why some people think it’s possible, or not, there is this recent GD thread to peruse. [GD thread on likelihood of draft](http://http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=278494) ---
**Author:** ![iampunha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/74df32/32.png) [@iampunha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iampunha)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/12 "2004-10-10T01:05:40Z")
I think it extremely unlikely to the point of possible political suicide, the sort of thing that no administration or government, short of revoking the first amendment, could possibly hope to contain the backlash that would be pretty well inevitable. This is something of a moot point for me, though, as most of my friends (and I) would probably not be fit for military service. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2004, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/13 "2004-10-10T01:07:35Z")
If the current “Back door” draft doesn’t count, then I say neither candidate will institute a draft unless something major breaks out. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/14 "2004-10-11T14:23:48Z")
> [@](#): > > If the current “Back door” draft doesn’t count, then I say neither candidate will institute a draft unless something major breaks out. Doesn’t count because that term is just a political ploy. Stop-loss is nothing new I knew plenty of people caught up in stop-loss during Desert Sheild-Desert Storm. No one was crying “back-door draft” then. Of course it wasn’t an election year. No draft. The military doesn’t want it and does not need it. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/15 "2004-10-11T14:35:26Z")
Given the fallout last time, the odds of reinstituting the draft are just a hair stronger than reinstituting slavery. So NO. ---
**Author:** ![Billdo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/billdo/32/315_2.png) [@Billdo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Billdo)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/16 "2004-10-11T15:14:31Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > Given the fallout last time, the odds of reinstituting the draft are just a hair stronger than reinstituting slavery. So NO. Well, Bush came out strongly against the _Dred Scott_ decision in the last debate, so I’d say that the chances of the latter occuring are slim. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/17 "2004-10-11T16:03:39Z")
Not a chance…the military wouldn’t stand for it. ---
**Author:** ![UncleBill](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/d26b3c/32.png) [@UncleBill](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleBill)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/18 "2004-10-11T16:48:53Z")
Absolutely not. ---
**Author:** ![kellner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/c2a13f/32.png) [@kellner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kellner)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/19 "2004-10-11T16:55:38Z")
Coming from a country that has the draft: extremely unlikely, and never for military reasons unless WWIII breaks out. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2004, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403/20 "2004-10-11T19:19:24Z")
If Bush is re-elected, better than 50-50 odds. Why? 'cause he’s gonna need boots on the ground to keep things under control (not to mention that precious Iraqi oil), and there’s no chance in hell anyone else will want to help out the US if he gets re-elected. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/poll-will-there-be-a-draft-during-the-next-presidential-term/268403.md?page=2)