# Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [November 27, 2023, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779 "2023-11-27T17:30:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/506 "2024-10-17T17:17:32Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > when **[red-wave polling in 2022 led astray too much of popular media](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats)**. My take is that the popular media was not innocently led astray. “Red wave” polling _allowed them_ to tell a narrative that resulted in clicks. I strongly suspect they were quite aware they were crap. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/507 "2024-10-17T17:18:36Z")
All elections are different. We never had an election with a black female candidate before to. If you use the logic that this candidate/circumstance is unique then you never have any data ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/508 "2024-10-17T17:23:23Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > It’s probably a fair question to ask whether averaging polls with different weighting and likely voter methodologies actually improves results. I think the answer is probably yes, in that we can’t know ahead of time which methodology will be correct so it would be wrong to assume one way or the other. Thanks for the response. Yes, it was a sincere question It’s this last bit that still befuddles me. “One of these, maybe both, could be absolutely wrong, so let’s throw ‘em both in the stew.” The earlier part of your explanation isn’t lost on me, but I still land on a “why bother?” conclusion. ISTM that polls can confirm a likely huge win, which I don’t think is a pressing need. Nobody needed tons of polls when Reagan won 49 states. Or they can confirm it’s too close to call. Neither seems like a super-valuable exercise. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/509 "2024-10-17T17:24:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > when **[red-wave polling in 2022 led astray too much of popular media](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats)**. > > My take is that the popular media was not innocently led astray. **“Red wave” polling _allowed them_ to tell a narrative that resulted in clicks**. I strongly suspect they were quite aware they were crap . I agree, yes. You’ve stated it more pointedly. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/510 "2024-10-17T17:26:28Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > On liberal message boards like this one, and similarly-aligned Substacks and social media: Trump is toast and the polling just isn’t capturing how badly he’s going to lose. **This is almost all based on Trump’s characters, actions as President, and factors other than polling data.** Bolding mine. They’re also based overwhelmingly on _hunches_ and _gut feelings_, like the “he’s in an unrecoverable tailspin now, and there’s no way he can win at this point” thread. I’ve acknowledged that refreshing the 538 and Nate Silver “tickers” every 20 - 30 minutes isn’t doing my nerves any good, but the notion of “ah, don’t worry, I can feel it - she’s got it in the bag” is just about as bad. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/511 "2024-10-17T17:37:05Z")
> [@Stratocaster](#): > > ISTM that polls can confirm a likely huge win, which I don’t think is a pressing need. Right. For the question of who is going to win they are not so useful. But there is a host of information in them that is useful besides that. (Which has been discussed in one of these threads in the past …) ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/512 "2024-10-17T17:43:09Z")
I guess I’m too parochial then. I’d like polls to tell me who’s likely to win when it’s not otherwise obvious. If they apparently can’t do so, the rest of you guys can have your fun with ‘em. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/513 "2024-10-17T17:44:16Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > Disagree. Red-wave polling has helped change narratives about the 2024 general election > > Could you expand on how that is so? There are more than three narratives even within mainstream media itself. Here are some narratives buoyed by red-wave polling. The Joy Behar article might seem unserious … but commentators like her (being part of _The View_’s panel) reach a lot more people in guard-down settings that almost all political pundits. (Page previews from _The Hill_ don’t load into Discourse’s posts, so the last item below is just text with a link) > **[Donald Trump makes gains in 5 battleground states in Nate Silver forecast](https://www.newsweek.com/battleground-states-polls-trump-harris-nate-silver-1969317)** > > The former president's average poll numbers improve in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. > **[Kamala Harris loses lead in two swing states in new poll](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-9-1970659)** > > Harris has lost her lead in two crucial swing states, while Trump has increased his lead in two, and lost his lead in two more. > **[Joy Behar Says She Is 'Starting To Worry' About Polls Spelling Good News For...](https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/16/the-view-joy-behar-polls-donald-trump/)** > > "The View" co-host Joy Behar expressed worry that recent polling is showing good outcomes for Republican nominee Donald Trump during a Wednesday segment. > **[Welcome to the uncanny valley of the 2024 election](https://www.ms.now/opinion/msnbc-opinion/harris-trump-election-day-polls-rcna175495)** > > With less than three weeks until Election Day, the presidential race has entered a period of extremely uncomfortable uncertainty. # **Momentum shifts against Harris in presidential race** ([_The Hill_, 10/17/2024](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4937489-harris-election-trend-concerns/)) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/514 "2024-10-17T17:46:35Z")
“More likely” they can do and that is good enough to decide on a bet given certain odds. But more likely 55 to 45 for example isn’t what will satisfy the desire you have. People want them to be accurate oracles and they are not up for that job. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/515 "2024-10-17T17:47:45Z")
Discount anything Newsweek says. They’ve gone from being a left-leaning print magazine to a right wing disinformation machine. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/516 "2024-10-17T17:50:24Z")
An obvious impact of the polls were that they pushed Biden out of the race. But no polling is not precise enough to tell you who will win a close race. It is much better at telling you if a race will be close. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/517 "2024-10-17T17:55:24Z")
Where are these conservative pollsters mentioned in theses cites? I mean the first headline talks about Nate Silver’s average. I see credible polls like Fox and NBC discussed in other. Yes in a 50/50 race, some polls will be bad for Harris, and media (and many people here) may see a change in dynamics that isn’t really here. Where is the evidence of conservative pollsters affecting the narrative? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/518 "2024-10-17T17:55:32Z")
The first article use Silver’s numbers, which aren’t meaningful changed by the “red-wave” pollsters, and also has Harris leading in PA, WI, MI, and NV anyway. The second article uses one poll in MI, and then points out that Harris is winning PA, WI, and MI in the 538 average. The Behar article is reporting what Behar said, not what the polling aggregators said. Then it cites the NBC News poll (not a red-wave pollster). The MSNBC article also cites the NBC poll. I’m not disputing that pollsters put out biased polls to spin media narratives. Of course they do. Campaigns have done it for years and now there are “independent” pollsters willing to do it as well. What I’m disputing is the idea that including these polls in the aggregators at 538 and Silver Bulletin (and others) has any impact on the narrative or the predictive quality of those aggregations. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/519 "2024-10-17T18:28:57Z")
I get it. It’s actually helped me in that I no longer get jubilant or fall into despair when someone posts poll results. Until there’s some huge (and unlikely) shift, I largely ignore them now. They don’t serve my needs! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2024, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/520 "2024-10-17T19:17:17Z")
An article of interest for this thread. Gift link. > **[What Past Polling Misses Can Tell Us About the 2024 Election](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/17/us/politics/national-polls-election-results.html?unlocked_article_code=1.S04.cDIF.g51T04eigRzs&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)** > > Pre-election polls will never perfectly match election results. But an examination of three decades of polling helps put recent misses into context. To me the big point: > Since 2000, polls in close states have been off by an average of 3.1 points. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2024, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/521 "2024-10-18T19:15:23Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > An article of interest for this thread. Gift link. > > . . . > > > Since 2000, polls in close states have been off by an average of 3.1 points. Yes, it is of interest. Of course, the 3.1 percent is for the final polling averages that will be available in about two weeks. The likely error, in a state polling average today, is more. P.S. What about increased early voting? Could that mean the final polls are no longer the most predictive? Conceivably, but I doubt it. I think that the undecideds and uncertains are by definition the last to make up their minds. They have not voted yet (or have not yet decided against voting). ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2024, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/522 "2024-10-19T11:46:24Z")
538 has had the race tightening over the past few weeks. Is this due to the polls getting worse for Harris, or is it because Harris was benefiting from their “secret sauce” which is now playing a smaller role in their projections now that we are only a couple of weeks away from election day? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2024, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/523 "2024-10-19T11:57:23Z")
G. Elliot Morris\*, leader of the 538 forecast model’s team: > The change in candidate’s fortunes came after a slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening across the northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds… > > Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged. \*I had originally typed “Garrett Morris,” of late-70s-early-80s _Saturday Night Live_ fame. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2024, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/524 "2024-10-19T17:15:31Z")
There is literally zero reason why Trump should have gained a single vote in the past month or so, none. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/525 "2024-10-20T22:20:36Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > There is literally zero reason why Trump should have gained a single vote in the past month or so, none . Excellent point. It’s inconceivable that — if you could accurately mind-read all American voters — 2 or 3 percent of Harris’ ~9/18/2024 support has flipped to current Trump support. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779.md?page=27)