# Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [November 27, 2023, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779 "2023-11-27T17:30:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 14\
**Page:** 39

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**Author:** ![Ash\_trav511](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/edb3f5/32.png) [@Ash\_trav511](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ash_trav511)\
**Post date:** [December 17, 2024, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/766 "2024-12-17T15:46:07Z")

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Hmm and there he goes…

> <https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1868996457920856203?t=9vcd_8wIPhtwV8v1e1TQ7A&s=19>

Trump sues Des Moines Register and Ann Selzer.  
It accused them of “brazen election interference” and consumer fraud.

It seems (as per Trump’s accusations) Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and other Democrats online also had the poll ahead of time, and were boasting about it before its release.

I feel sad for Selzer. She had a stellar reputation as a pollster till the last poll of her career which went horribly wrong in the prediction by 16 points. But being sued for a wrong poll is not good. I hope the courts side with her legally.

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**Author:** ![Ash\_trav511](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/edb3f5/32.png) [@Ash\_trav511](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ash_trav511)\
**Post date:** [December 17, 2024, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/767 "2024-12-17T15:50:32Z")

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I wonder if it’s a tactic of browbeating journalists/pollsters/media organisations. We have seen what happened with ABC news.

Putting a threat of huge financial implications and legal harassment is indeed a great deterrent for many people.  
Trump need not win legally in the end…just the threat of a long drawn out legal mess is enough harassment and I guess that is his strategy.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [December 17, 2024, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/768 "2024-12-17T23:24:55Z")

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> [@Ash\_trav511](#):
>
> Putting a threat of huge financial implications and legal harassment is indeed a great deterrent for many people.

And has been a tactic of Trump’s for decades, long before he ever entered politics.

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**Author:** ![Ash\_trav511](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/edb3f5/32.png) [@Ash\_trav511](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ash_trav511)\
**Post date:** [December 17, 2024, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/769 "2024-12-17T23:54:29Z")

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> [@kenobi\_65](#):
>
> And has been a tactic of Trump’s for decades, long before he ever entered politics

Yes, agree.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [December 18, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/770 "2024-12-18T00:08:41Z")

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Poor little Donnie is suing because his fee-fees got hurt. Jesus, a poll was taken, the results were reported. So they were off, big fucking deal. The point of this isn’t that the poll was inaccurate, it’s to intimidate the press. Let him sue.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [December 18, 2024, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/771 "2024-12-18T18:12:18Z")

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If he can get this in front of a Trumpist judge, he has an excellent chance of winning the case, as some of them don’t care for law or facts.

As Republicans are now formally trying to charge Liz Cheney with… well, SOMETHING, they can’t really explain what, but they’re gonna charge her… this is highly dangerous. Throw enough of this shit at courts and they could win some, especially as Trump keeps naming Trumpists to federal courts. Win a few political show trials and you start upsetting the rule of law.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [December 18, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/772 "2024-12-18T19:28:03Z")

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I’m sure you’re correct. The right judge would give him a win. But would an appeal stand up? Who knows? If he is successful in the end with this case, then democracy is dead. One can only hope and pray for the health and longevity of the remaining sane justices on SCOTUS.

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**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\
**Post date:** [December 18, 2024, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/773 "2024-12-18T21:18:22Z")

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Of course, to get it to trial they’re going to have to get an indictment from a D.C. federal grand jury. Somehow I don’t think that will be easy to get, though I’m sure a Kash Patel-led FBI will be more than happy to act on the Republican Congress’s referral, and a Pam Bondi-led Justice Department will be happy to put the case to the grand jury.

The money and time that Liz Cheney will have to spend on even that level of legal defense is of course what will consist of Donald Trump’s revenge in this case. I’m sure he’s thrilled now that his side of disputes will now be picked up by the taxpayer, rather than that being on the other side before.

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**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\
**Post date:** [December 19, 2024, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/774 "2024-12-19T00:24:18Z")

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> [@SunUp](#):
>
> Of course, to get it to trial they’re going to have to get an indictment from a D.C. federal grand jury.

If we are talking about Selzer, wouldn’t it be an Iowa grand jury?

Could the prosecution impanel the grand jury in whichever of these is in the most GOP locale:

[List of United States federal courthouses in Iowa - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_federal_courthouses_in_Iowa)

As for trial, few federal cases go to trial. If Gannett settles, as I suppose they would, where does that leave Selzer?

Talk about polling being broken.

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**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\
**Post date:** [December 19, 2024, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/775 "2024-12-19T01:35:29Z")

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> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> > [@SunUp](#):
> >
> > Of course, to get it to trial they’re going to have to get an indictment from a D.C. federal grand jury.
> 
> If we are talking about Selzer, wouldn’t it be an Iowa grand jury?

I was talking about Cheney, which **RickJay** mentioned in his second paragraph.

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**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\
**Post date:** [December 19, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/776 "2024-12-19T02:27:57Z")

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You’ll need to start by amending the Constitution, since members of Congress cannot be prosecuted for doing their jobs.

> **[Speech or Debate Clause](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speech_or_Debate_Clause)**
>
> The Speech or Debate Clause is a clause in the United States Constitution (Article I, Section 6, Clause 1). The clause states that "The Senators and Representatives" of Congress "shall in all Cases, except Treason, Felony, and Breach of the Peace, be privileged from Arrest during their attendance at the Session of their Respective Houses, and in going to and from the same; and for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place."
> The intended purpose is to p...

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [December 19, 2024, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/777 "2024-12-19T15:18:33Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> I’m sure you’re correct. The right judge would give him a win. But would an appeal stand up? Who knows?

Probably not. And the further up you go in level, the less likely it is that even a bullshit Trumpist judge agrees, because you start to get into people who see themselves as part of the ruling class and that’s more important than party.

But a lot of damage will already have been done. Immeasurable damage.

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**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2024, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/778 "2024-12-24T12:42:25Z")

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Not exactly polling numbers, but focus group found Trump’s crazy uncle act more genuine compared to Harris just repeating Democrat policy she had memorized. [https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/22/democrats-2024-election-problem-focus-group-00195806](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/22/democrats-2024-election-problem-focus-group-00195806)

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**Author:** ![Ash\_trav511](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/edb3f5/32.png) [@Ash\_trav511](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ash_trav511)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2024, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/779 "2024-12-24T13:42:49Z")

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This portion of the politico report is shocking. I can’t believe people think like this.

"Even though the focus group voters did not solely blame Harris for their distaste of the Democratic Party, they also weren’t happy about her candidacy. Participants described her as “inauthentic,” “very dishonest” and “did not seem competent.”

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