# Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [November 27, 2023, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779 "2023-11-27T17:30:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2024, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/141 "2024-03-11T23:10:06Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > _If_ that happens, how does one know that they’re migrants? As mentioned in an anecdote in a Pit thread, they just _look_ like migrants! You know! ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2024, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/142 "2024-03-11T23:13:43Z")
Nm wrong forum. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2024, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/143 "2024-03-11T23:29:11Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > I suspect that MAGA voters are more eager to be polled than most everyone else. Especially now, this far out from November. Their leader is besieged by “weaponized government”, otherwise known as, consequences for his actions, and they identify with his worlds biggest victim fantasy. There is also a strong “perception is reality” belief on the right, where they think reality is created from the top down, and the more frequently and the more strenuously you repeat that which you wish was true, it will then become true. When I hear the 2% success rate from cold calls in that recent NY Times poll, and that it took hours to get each successful call, I wonder who, exactly they are reaching. Just a theory, but I find it hard to believe they are reaching an accurate representation of the voting public at large with such an abysmal success rate on the numbers they are calling. This “perception is reality” might not be confined to MAGA voters. It could be playing a part in Biden’s low numbers. My guess is that voters on the far left, some of who will reluctantly vote for Biden in November, are saying they don’t support him in the hope that he is forced to drop out before Election Day. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/144 "2024-03-12T00:34:54Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > My guess is that voters on the far left, some of who will reluctantly vote for Biden in November, are saying they don’t support him in the hope that he is forced to drop out before Election Day. So in addition to shy Trumpers, there are shy Bideners? I am sure there are! But there’s no reason to think shy Bideners, this cycle only, or early in the cycle only, outnumber shy Trumpers. And looking at 2016 and 2020 polling vs. actual, there’s some real reason to see shy Trumpers outnumbering shy Democrats. As to who these shy Bideners are, I have no objection to speculating that they are left of Biden. Some will say they are voting for Cornel West when they are actually just sending a message, to Biden, that he should be more like West. One way to peel shy voters off is to look at polls where the undecided are asked to lean to either Biden or Trump. I find it hard to believe that many left of Biden voters would actually tell the pollster they prefer Trump. And if Biden is doing better in those kind of polls, it is only by the slightest. There is one reason for my having a little hope you are correct. I read something where Nate Silver seemed to buy just the idea I poo-poo – that shy Biden polling responses are numerous and/or will fade when Joe is nominated. Of course, Nate’s posts are not some fundamentalist biblical text that should be accepted uncritically. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/145 "2024-03-12T00:45:16Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > So in addition to shy Trumpers, there are shy Bideners? > > I am sure there are! But there’s no reason to think shy Bideners, this cycle only, or early in the cycle only, outnumber shy Trumpers. And looking at 2016 and 2020 polling vs. actual, there’s some real reason to see shy Trumpers outnumbering shy Democrats. > > As to who these shy Bideners are, I have no objection to speculating that they are left of Biden. Some will say they are voting for Cornel West when they are actually just sending a message, to Biden, that he should be more like West. > > One way to peel shy voters off is to look at polls where the undecided are asked to lean to either Biden or Trump. I find it hard to believe that many left of Biden voters would actually tell the pollster they prefer Trump. And if Biden is doing better in those kind of polls, it is only by the slightest. > > There is one reason for my having a little hope you are correct. I read something where Nate Silver seemed to buy just the idea I poo-poo – that shy Biden polling responses are numerous and/or will fade when Joe is nominated. Of course, Nate’s posts are not some fundamentalist biblical text that should be accepted uncritically. I wouldn’t call them shy Biden voters. I’m thinking more along the lines of voters with a “perfect is the enemy of the good” type mindset. Someone who is thinking “I want a prime filet mignon from a top steakhouse. My choice is between a burger and a shit sandwich? I’m tired of burgers so I’m going to refuse to support the burger choice.” But when it comes time to eat, they obviously will go with the burger when no filet mignon materializes. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/146 "2024-03-12T01:04:52Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > _If_ that happens, how does one know that they’re migrants? You have to ask them? No _if_. It is happening in Denver. Don’t believe my eyes? How about [USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/09/migrant-crisis-threatens-to-overwhelm-denver/72618062007/). > In Denver, the newcomers have erected ramshackle tent cities near upscale apartment buildings, **flooded medians to offer windshield-washing services** and staked out street corners with signs begging for money. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/147 "2024-03-12T01:28:10Z")
Oh boy, near upscale apartment buildings. The inconvenience must be eye opening. Must be, right? ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/148 "2024-03-12T02:30:55Z")
So you don’t believe me they are in the intersections washing windshields? Why don’t you come over to Federal and Alameda and debunk me yourself. And what’s your issue with the fact that we have run out of free hotels for them and now they add to our homeless population. Sure maybe USA Today could have phrased it better but the point is in Denver there are homeless everywhere. Rich areas, poor area, across the street from the Capitol. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/149 "2024-03-12T02:46:24Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > But when it comes time to eat, they obviously will go with the burger when no filet mignon materializes. The problem with this analogy is that voters can abstain from voting, as opposed to being forced to choose between Biden and Trump. If it were mandatory voting (which, by analogy, would be akin to someone being forced to choose between burgers and shit,) then of course most of the voters you described would choose the burger. But given the option to sit on the couch and not vote, there are a significant number of voters who will refuse to “eat,” as a protest of not being given the filet mignon. The result is that the election will be likelier to have shit win than burgers. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/150 "2024-03-12T02:48:25Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > So in addition to shy Trumpers, there are shy Bideners? There’s nothing to be shy about in supporting Biden. Biden is not seen as a reprehensible villain, like Trump. Biden is a mainstream run-of-the-mill Democrat. There’s no “shame” for people in supporting Biden. So I don’t think there are any shy Bidenites who are hiding their true feelings, unless they’re blue voters in a deep-red region - but then that would _always_ have been the case, whether it’s voting for Clinton, Obama or Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/151 "2024-03-12T03:41:18Z")
I don’t see how Biden is any different for left-wing voters than he was four years ago, or any Democratic president ever. We are never going to get a presidential candidate to espouse our views. We know that perfectly well. Whether we vote or not is based on how much you convince yourself that your vote doesn’t matter. I think the vast majority of left-wing voters who would be inclined to vote at all will vote against Trump. The ones that won’t probably weren’t likely voters anyway. It is very frustrating to watch the Overton window move away, though. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/152 "2024-03-12T10:57:06Z")
So I’m certain you favor giving them work permits, so they can support themselves, pay taxes and contribute to the economy. Right? ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/153 "2024-03-12T13:16:53Z")
The only data we have on voters, past polling some 1000 unwilling participants now, is the 2022 election. Trump and MAGA should have been very angry. Yet they gained very few seats in congress. > **[2022 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections)** > > The 2022 United States elections were held on November 8, 2022, with the exception of absentee balloting. During this U.S. midterm election, which occurred during the term of incumbent president Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were contested to determine the 118th United States Congress. Thirty-nine state and territorial U.S. gubernatorial elections, as well as numerous state and local elections, w... ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/154 "2024-03-12T13:57:56Z")
Absolutely! I have always been a supporter of immigration intended to bringing people in to the United States for work. I think it stems from growing up in Los Angeles back in the days when they still taught about the [Bracero Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracero_Program). Why can’t that be a model for our immigration system today? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/155 "2024-03-12T14:04:46Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > The only data we have on voters, past polling some 1000 unwilling participants now . . . This strikes me as stretching to find a reason to say Trump is not ahead. If nothing much changed in the past year, a typical high quality pollster has to call maybe 50,000 (someone previously posted) or 100,000 (what I read in the NY Times) to find 1,000. But those 1,000 are obviously willing, and, strange but true, once demographic weightings are applied, just as representative of November voters as the samples were back in the twentieth century when they only had to call maybe 4,000 to find 1,000 willing. Also, the data to look at is everyone willingly responding over the past year or so — probably hundreds of thousands. I say probably because some have undoubtedly responded more than once. Tell me Trump is a weak candidate because of legal problems — absolutely. He’s the weakest candidate they could have nominated. Most voters have firm unfavorable opinions about him. But if the election was today, he’d win. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/156 "2024-03-12T14:11:41Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > But if the election was today, he’d win. If the election were today, he’d have ~70% chance of winning is more accurate I’d say. His lead is a bit smaller than Clinton’s was on election even in 2016. Nate’s model back then had her as a 72% favorite. I also think it is useful to look back at the model that cycle. Clinton’s odds peaked at maybe 88% and Trump fought it back to about a tie right after the convention. The model didn’t even _start_ until June. [2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast) There is an eternity left, and all we can say for sure is that it is close and likely will be close. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/157 "2024-03-12T14:25:44Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Why can’t that be a model for our immigration system today? Well, for starters, because Republicans have blocked any possible effort at reform, because it might make Biden look good. But we have lots of threads to discuss immigration. This one’s supposed to be about polling. /hijack ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/158 "2024-03-12T16:32:16Z")
Polling outfit did a large poll with hundreds of Black respondents to see if the supposed 20% Black support for Trump was real: > > > rolandsmartin @rolandsmartin Spoiler: it was not. 11%, about in line with recent elections. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/159 "2024-03-12T16:33:31Z")
Trump lost 41 seats in 2 years. Joe lost 9. > **[United States midterm election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election)** > > Midterm elections in the United States are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office, on Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Federal offices that are up for election during the midterms include all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate. > In addition, 34 of the 50 U.S. states elect their governors for four-year terms during midterm electi... ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2024, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/160 "2024-03-12T16:47:27Z")
We have a recent test case that we can analyze (when not arguing about windshield cleaners in Denver) to see if polling is broken - the special election to fill George Santos’ House seat. [2024 New York’s 3rd congressional district special election - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_special_election) Wikipedia lists six polls taken prior to the election. Excluding the second Emerson college one, and adjusting out the undecideds and taking a straight average yields: Tom Suozi D 51.6 percent Mazi Melesa R 48.4 percent The final result was Suozi 53.8 percent, Melesa 46.0 percent, Write-In 0.2 percent. Polls correctly predicted the winner of a fairly close race. The polls underestimated the support for the Democratic candidate by two percentage points, within the margin of error. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779.md?page=9)