# Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [November 27, 2023, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779 "2023-11-27T17:30:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 232

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\
**Post date:** [April 10, 2024, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/232 "2024-04-10T17:07:45Z")

</div>

> [@PhillyGuy](#):
>
> By definition, a cheerleader is someone whose analysis is biased.
> 
> > [@](#):
> >
> > [Simon Rosenberg] had accurately predicted “no red wave” in 2022 based on the data he was seeing and against the consensus of the polls.
> 
> But the consensus of the polls was on target. From 538:
> 
> [The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/)

“_Against the consensus of the [2022] polls_” are Kuo’s words. Kuo might or might not be wrong to impugn the 2022 midterm polls.

Rosenberg _himself_, FWIW, did not see his prediction as opposing the consensus of the midterm polls – **[he saw it as opposing _media coverage_ of the midterm polls](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats)** (from [Vox.com](http://Vox.com), 11/27/2022):

> In the months leading up to the [2022] midterms, [many](https://www.wsj.com/articles/brace-yourself-for-a-republican-wave-competitive-district-generic-biden-inflation-economy-georgia-nevada-senate-majority-11666007633) [pundits](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/opinion/midterms-truss-student-loans.html) [and](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/23/republican-wave-midterms-congress) [politicians](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/blue-states-midterm-landscape.html) thought that Republicans had momentum enough for big gains at the state and federal levels, enough to count as a “red wave.” **But veteran Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg is one of a few voices in Washington who, despite President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings and polls that showed Democrats playing defense on inflation, remained optimistic about the party’s prospects and who was ultimately vindicated by a strong performance**.
> 
> Rosenberg — who has previously advised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and is the president of the progressive think tank NDN — says he’s not in the business of predictions. But he thought that the available data consistently pointed to a competitive election, and he became a self-described “info warrior” on Twitter trying to convince the pundit class of that. He believes that, unlike in 2016 and 2020 when polling failed to register Trump’s strength as a candidate, this time around, it was the media analyzing the polls who got it wrong.
> 
> “**There was a massive media failure this cycle,” he said. “The failure that just took place is more grave than the polling error [in 2020] because there were a lot of really smart people who basically misled tens of millions of people through their political commentary in the final few weeks**.”

---

_[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779)._