# Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump\
**Created:** [November 27, 2023, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779 "2023-11-27T17:30:18Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 394

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**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\
**Post date:** [July 12, 2024, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/394 "2024-07-12T18:08:44Z")

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> [@DSeid](#):
>
> Past cycle underestimates of Trump support had been explained not by “shy Trumper” but by those who supported Trump being somewhat less likely to participate in polls.
> 
> **Have the pollsters adjusted methodologies to attempt to compensate for that effect?** Some yes some no?

(my bolding)

The post below contains indirect support for the idea that “_yes, they have compensated_”. Or else are getting more representative sampling of Trump voters.

Namely: Trump’s 2024 polling results – in both national and battleground-state polling – are in line with his actual vote percentages in 2016 and 2020.

> [@Biden considering dropping out (Update: Biden drops out)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/biden-considering-dropping-out-update-biden-denies/1003690/990):
>
> Plausibly, Trump is likely locked in to around 46.5 - 47.0 percent of the voters in the 2024 general election. There are a lot of inputs for that: Trump’s popular-vote percentages in 2016 (46.1) and 2020 (46.8); his rolling aggregate in RealClear Polling ([vacillating between 44.6 and 47.8](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden), with the mean for the year around 46.5); July 2024 polls via FiveThirtyEight [sticking firm around 43% - 44%](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo). Now, I’m aware that’s popular vote, not Electoral College counts. I’m merely using the popular-vot…

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